Thread by @petercalloway

THREAD: There’s a lot of talk right now about crime in San Francisco. Almost everything you’ll read in the mainstream press is wrong. I live in the Tenderloin and work in the courts every day. Here’s my take on what’s happening and why.

Let’s start with an example of the pervasive disinformation: In a recent piece on the TL—where I’ve lived for 4 yrs, and the epicenter of the city’s homelessness and drug crises—a Washington Post journalist, @PostScottWilson, tells readers that crime in the TL is out of control.

Murder and rape are up double-digit percentages since last year! Well, he’s right about that. And it sounds scary. But what are the actual increases (# of incidents, not %)? Homicides increased from 10 to 11. Rapes increased from 22 to 28. washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/02…

What about crime in the city overall? If you read the Chronicle (with some exceptions), or the recall campaign literature, or national outlets advancing the conservative claim that SF is a failed experiment in progressive policymaking, you probably think it’s out of control.

Let’s take a look at the actual numbers.

First, a note on methodology: These statistics are generated from data provided by SFPD, so we’re playing on their field. And I’m using 2019 as a baseline. Why?

Because in 2020, crime across the country reached historic lows. So while the city saw increases in crime (mostly marginal) in *some* of these categories from 2020-2021, that’s largely due to the fact that for most of 2020, everyone was spending most their time at home indoors.

Now, the numbers: Citywide, from 2019-21, homicides increased 36%. That sounds significant, but the actual # increase was 15. SF has one of the lowest homicide rates among major cities in the US. Include rural communities, and San Francisco’s not even in the conversation.

Over the same period, rape, robbery, and assault *decreased* by 47% (-191), 27% (-851), and 6% (-160). So, violent crime (which the SFPD categorizes as homicide, rape, robbery, and assault) decreased by 19% (-1187). Property crime over that period is down by 11% (-6083).

What about the TL? This is the neighborhood the board of supervisors recently voted to subject to the mayor’s emergency declaration, mobilizing more police to enforce anti-homeless laws and force unhoused people to disperse into other areas of the city.

By the way, only 2 supervisors, @shamannwalton and @DeanPreston, voted against this.

In the Tenderloin, as citywide, crime is down overall: a decrease of 3% (-127). Violent crime decreased by 14% (-134), and property crime increased by .24% (+7).

Larceny (petty theft and grand theft)—which was heavily relied upon by the board and the mayor to justify their draconian anti-poor policing strategies—was down 6.84% (-173).

I have to admit, even I was shocked to see numbers quite like this. The constant noise from well-respected media outlets affects the way we all view these problems, in obvious and subtle ways.

It affects the way people *feel* about crime. And politicians love to say that even despite the numbers, the way people feel about crime matters.

I think that’s true. But rarely mentioned is that the way people *feel* about crime is a direct consequence of how media/politicians talk about it. And when they lie about the #s, or ignore them, they manipulate people’s feelings twd anti-democratic + anti-poor political ends.

They are generating fear, creating a political environment ripe for a dramatic swing back to the tough-on-crime policies that have caused incalculable harm and suffering in poor and minority communities across the country for decades.

It’s hard to see this as anything but intentional. It doesn’t take much to scratch the surface on these intersecting subjects. When you do—and if it’s your job to do so, I'd hope you could be bothered—the reality, and the reason for this disinformation, emerge pretty clearly.

San Francisco's progressive DA, Chesa Boudin, is facing a recall funded by right-wing billionaires. sfexaminer.com/findings/the-r…

They’re exploiting people’s perceptions of crime—that it’s going up, that they’re in danger, and that Boudin is responsible—in an effort to create a much more widely surveilled, unequal San Francisco.

In their vision for our city, wealthy conservatives and mostly white liberals don’t have to look at homeless people, and don’t have to grapple with the conditions these recall proponents help create that lead to homelessness, drug use, and the like.

What are those conditions? The literature is clear: Lack of access to affordable housing and good jobs, the absence of robust mental health care, wage theft (which dwarfs in dollar value all property crime across all categories), and other poverty-producing mechanisms.

Instead, they can gallivant about the city eating at Michelin-starred restaurants riding bikes through the park and talking about the next startup they’re funding, all without confronting the human costs of enforcing their extractive utopia.

This vision is only possible if supported by disinfo about what’s happening on our streets.

Why am I writing this? Because I’ve had many conversations about these issues with a number of strangers in recent months. The extent to which they have been misinformed is staggering.

When I tell them what the numbers actually reveal, when I explain that actually Boudin is prosecuting most categories of crime at a rate higher than his predecessor, they’re shocked. That’s entirely inconsistent with what they’ve been told.

But, now they know. And hopefully, they will be less likely to support, knowingly or not, this vision for our city that so many seem committed to, a vision that is deeply harmful to so many more.