Ukraine's strike of the fuel depot at Belgorod was MUCH more than a bold tactical move.
While 1.5 M gallons of fuel is certainly a critical target & will be significant in this logistics war...there's more.
This is what's called a "deep strike" in US military parlance. 1/6
A deep strike is meant to cause physical damage to the enemy, but it's also designed to cause increased fear, a feeling that no where is safe, & it sends the message " we will come after you everywhere, especially when you're not expecting it." 2/
The Russians believed Belorus and RU territory were safe havens. They're now less confident of that.
The RUs believed they could return to bases in Belarus - to the motor pools they once occupied - and reconsolidate and they would be untouched. No more. 3/
A deep strike doesn't directly or immediately affect the front line troops ...but it does have a significant effect on the troops in the rear (the logistics folks, and those returning from the fight).
That's a big deal, and it has huge psychological implications. 4/
Beyond being bold & audacious, this UKR strike into Belgorod required more than just 2 helicopters striking a target...
It required analysis of target set, planning of the mission, preparation of the routes, jamming of the enemy radars, and a precise strike ability. 5/
The fact that the UKR leaders will not "confirm or deny" they did the strike is also - to me - an exclamation point.
It says to me "yeah, we did it, and when we get a chance we'll do it again."
That's panache. Ukraines got it going on. 6/6
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WRT national security & global threats, an extremely dangerous time re US "foes." -Massive Russian strikes in Ukraine -Georgia's "frozen conflict" heating up. -Moldova dealing with Russian troops in Transnistria -Russian economy collapsing...due to Putin's wars --Assad flees to Russia 1/4
-China intimidates Philippines, assaults Hong Kong's autonomy, represses Tibet & Xinjiang, threatens Taiwan, blocks international trade routes -N. Korea troops & weapons in Russia, increases missile capabilities -Hamas destroyed, but Hezbollah, IJ, MB & the Africa terror groups still active. 2/4
-Piracy increases in Persian Gulf and Red Sea regions -US, Mexico & Philippines rated as most active human trafficking countries -Draughts, famine & other climate change factors + outcome of conflicts causes increased migration into US & Europe. -Domestic terrorism indicators rising. 3/4
Watching the Israeli operations in S. Lebanon today, as the IDF releases numerous photos of arms caches found in & near homes. 1/7
These are similar to what US forces found throughout Iraq when we were there.
Using civilian locations provides terror organizations w/ unique advantages:
- difficult to find
- difficult to target
- when found, striking/destroying results in civilian casualties. 2/
This morning, the IAF also struck a 3.5 km tunnel complex between Syria & Lebanon that provided a means of bringing those weapons to Hezbollah.
Between 0900-1100 hrs local time today, Hezbollah launched over 100 rockets & drones into N. Israel. 3/
A few thoughts on what occurred in two different conflicts yesterday...the use of "killer pagers" by Israel and Ukraine's attack on the large ammo cache at Toropets military base 300+ miles inside Russia.
A short 🧵 1/12
First, the pagers.
In this article (gifted) from the @nytimes, the author claims there "no clear strategy" for this coordinated attack.
I disagree. Having used electronic & signals countermeasures in Iraq, the strategy is clear. 2/
Terrorist organizations - unlike conventional militaries who have encrypted signal capabilities - must find ways to communiate. It is important to continue to disrupt & counter this ability.
In Iraq, terrorist use of cell phones allowed US and ISF to glean valuable information & disrupt their networks. 3/