- Russia planned to easy-take Kyiv within 3 days, following by capitulation of Ukraine;
- Russian army units were followed by thousands of riot police;
- Russian army purchased 45,000 body bags and brought mobile crematories;
- I am sure they planned mass executions for Ukraine.
In September 2021, Russia has adopted a state technical standard for digging and maintaining mass graves amid wartime. It took effect on Feb 1st 2022.
According to experts, the size of mass graves foreseen by this new Russian technical standard, "are thinkable only for a nuclear war or a pandemic". Looks like these graves were also foreseen for Ukrainians, as Russians published on 26th Feb their official article on "victory".
The standard foresaw digging of isolated mass graves for up to 1,000 dead bodies each grave within 3 days. A team of 16 soldiers was responsible for every grave.
Summarising: it looks like Russia planned a fast victory over Ukrainian army, full occupation of Ukraine and a genocide, including mass executions of Ukrainian civil society leaders, politicians, cultural leaders, clerics, etc. The scale of planned genocide was unseen since WWII.
For understanding: here are details from the Russian State technical standard for mass graves, it describes with plans and pictures, how the grave should be dug+isolated, how corpses should be covered with chemicals and how the full grave should be trumped by a heavy bulldozer.
Don't forget: on Feb 26th, 4 days after the planned attack on 22/02/22 (and 2 days after the real attack) Russia's biggest state outlet RIA published (clearly out of mistake) an article about the victory over Ukraine and the final "solution of Ukrainian question" by this war.
So there is no surprise, WHY Ukrainians are not happy to listen to German advice (like by @JohannesVarwick and other persons) to "capitulate and save lives". Ukrainian may not know all the details of Putin's plans, but they have all the experience of what Putin and Russia bring.
The guy who has signed the State Technical Standard on Mass Graves - Anton Shalayev - has studied in Berlin at @esmtberlin and worked at a subsidiary of German TÜV Rheinland @tuvcom_cert. Thank you for mentioning it, @BalticsGlobal. One cannot invent it. It feels like a bad trip.
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A large number of genuine Ukrainian accounts I follow on different social media (and in many cases I personally know people behind them) are looking positively towards Trump's presidency, and see him as a hope for any true action. This shows how much Biden has pissed off Ukraine.
I stress: I don't say if Trump is good or bad. I say: many Ukrainians who risk their life daily, many at the front, are glad that Biden's team leaves the stage. They are well aware of Trump's ambiguity, and of what he & his team said about 🇺🇦 or Putin. Still they are relieved.
Biden's team went to this catastrophe deliberately and for years. From Ukraine's hero who has provided Ukraine with Javelins - to a pity old delusional man who is afraid of the might of the country he runs.
THREAD The real problem in communication btw Ukraine and its allies is the total lack of a common post-war world vision ➡️ the lack of a common goal. 🇺🇦 goal is to guarantee survival of the 🇺🇦 state AND of 🇺🇦nation, AND to achieve sustainable security for them in the future. 1/8
This goal is impossible to achieve without a full military defeat of Russia, and either significant demilitarization of Russia, or a significant increase of Ukraine’s military capacities, including gigantic long-range strike capacities (cruise missiles and Air Force). 2/8
The Western goal is different. While it’s not aimed against Ukraine per se
and would even welcome Ukraine’s survival, first of all it is aimed at prevention of Russia’s uncontrolled collapse, which associates with global risks (while Ukraine’s defeat is seen as a local risk). 3/8
I have just return from a very interesting NATO conference in Yerevan, Armenia. As much as the conference was amazing, the contrast to practically Russia-occupied country was grotesque. Lots of signs of Russia’s dominance: from cinema Moscow to purely Russian advertising /1
Russian plates on luxury cars, Russian announcements regarding the Eurasian Economic Union in the airport, Russian business lounges, tasteless Russian ad of “Crude Oil Vodka” /2
I felt absolutely unsafe every minute outside of the group. The level of subordination is crazy. Russian flags even on sweets shops, and even “Armenian-Chinese Friendship Society” addresses people in Russian (!) not in Armenian or Chinese. /3
The event at Germany’s army academy @FueAkBwHH has started. Ukraine‘s honorary consul Iryna Tybinka: Ukrainians are tired, but everyone understands: we have no choice but to fight. Those who demand a sort of cease fire, or stop of arms delivery, demand our death. /1
Marcus @MarcusFaber: Ukrainians defend us all with their fight, we need to be thankful. I visit Ukraine regularly, have been five times in Ukraine, and speak with civilians and NGOs, they know why they fight. /2
@MarcusFaber Hendrik Remmel from #GIDS: Ukraine is in strategic defensive since a year, its army's challenges are the same. First of all the lack of manpower. Ukraine needs tanks, IFVs, other equipment, to achieve dominance vs. Russia, as Russia's strategy is now: "we hold longer than UA". /3
A marvelous explosion of a Russian ammunition depot in Toropets, Tver region, north-west from Moscow, after a Ukrainian drone has hit it last night.
More video from this morning in Russian #Tver region where an ammunition depot has been demilitarized by a Ukrainian drone.
International seismic stations have recorded up to 15 massive explosions equivalent to earthquakes of 2.0 to 3.2 magnitude, likely related to secondary explosions in a Russian Toropets ammunition depot in Tver region, hit last night by a Ukrainian drone.
Why does the @POTUS administration effectively support Russia in this war? It’s not because they like Putin (like Trump does). The reason is different (but makes no difference in the result) 1) Biden’s team thinks in categories of red lines. This means, a superpower has core… /1
…interests. Everything outside of them is just spare change. But core interests may not be violated. If they do, the very existence of the superpower is threatened, and it goes into survival rage mode. 2) Biden’s delusional team thinks, Ukraine is not a core thing for Russia /2
They falsely believe, Ukraine war for Russia is something like Vietnam war for the U.S. Russia has its interests, but as soon as Russia starts suffering too high price, it will pull back. Because Ukraine is not Russia’s core interest. But IF the Ukrainians hit Russia’s core… /3