Latest turnout figure for 30 mins before polls 67.80% - closing in on 2018’s 69.73%. There are no exit polls in #Hungary so turnout figure will be most exciting stat until results start coming in round 10pm CET.
Preliminary results favour #Fidesz but we are at some distance Still from full picture. Press pen for Fidesz Election night event dull: no spokes people. No across to main event and no free buffet (Humph!). I am off to some where jollier.
United for Hungary Event right now. I attended Funerals with a better ‘vízbe’ when I was a Vicar.
MZP giving speech which is definitely too long.
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🧵 So my take on #hungaryelections + surprise devastating defeat of United Opposition. NB defeat not surprising but extent was (to them, pollsters, journalists + even #Fidesz). Important to reflect on how this should change our view of situ here. Some of this is painful to write.
x2 caveats. 1) This isn’t about polling technicalities/quantitive data. Others have provided good technical explanations of poll + projection errors. This is qualitative reflection on how I (+others) have misread realities in #Hungary.
2) Nothing here denies electoral system + context = v. unfair to #Hungary’s opposition.Multiple reports show no level playing field. BUT, while things were slanted against oppo. election was definitely *not* ‘rigged’ -see @OSCE report. Oppo vote down cf 2018 for other reasons.
Presently sitting in #Hungary’s National Election Office waiting for briefing to start (viz election process not result). Appropriately the office is on the street which leads to parliament: alkotmány utca (‘constitution street’).
Election Office Spox; big technical improvements since 2018 víz transparency + riducing scope for irregularities. Says no big change in voter numbers in constituencies despite more flexible system for registering addresses [flagged by critics as poss help to ‘voter tourism’].