Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 3 13 tweets 4 min read
This is a really nice history snapshot thread on the Battle of Kyiv that has been making the rounds.

I have a few minor objections to it based on what is missing.

Ukrainian leadership & Russian corruption thread🧵

1/
The 1st missing piece is the Pres. Zelensky statement to the West "I need ammunition, not a ride."

"The moral is to the physical what ten is to one"
-- Napoléon Bonaparte of France

2/
This political act that set the table for the defeat of the Russian VDV outside Kyiv.

It prepared the Ukrainian Army for a fight to the death at Kyiv and in a sentance gave the Ukrainian people a rallying cry.

3/
The 2nd thing left out was a military decision by Pres. Zelensky that defeated the 3-day plan to encircle Kyiv.

Zelensky ordered the approaches to to Kyiv flooded.

4/
It was this act that set the table for Ukrainian Aerorozvidka weaponized commercial drones to block the bottlenecked by flooding road supply line to the 70,000 Russian troops sitting out of fuel North West of Kyiv.

businessinsider.com/elite-ukrainia…
5/
The last objection is explaining how the Ukrainians could "play games" with Russian communications.

This involved the failure in by corruption of the Russian Azart digital spread spectrum software defined radio.
6/
strategypage.com/htmw/htecm/art…
According to strategypage.com -

"Azart proved less capable than expected under combat conditions because there were not enough of them and these radios were unable to remain in contact with higher headquarters. In combat Russian support forces
7/
..are supposed to erect temporary repeater towers or employ vehicles carrying mobile towers so that Azart users on the front line could stay in touch with other units and the chain of command that went all the way back to the Stavka (Great Staff) in Moscow...

8/
... that controlled all military operations. The repeater towers did not work because armed Ukrainians found and destroyed them."

And a little later at the same link --

"The Ukrainians know all about Azart because soon after Russian troops began receiving them in 2017,

9/
...many also showed up on the black market, where anyone could buy one. The Ukrainians did so and, along with NATO, discovered what Azart could do and what its weaknesses were. Ukrainian and NATO tech experts concluded that, with proper countermeasures,..

10/
... the Azart radios would become a major liability for Russian commanders and it was."

This "failure by corruption" of the Azart radios enabled Ukraine to counterfeit "The Fuel convoy is coming" messages that took quite some time for the Russian Army HQ to pick up on.
11/
This was aided greatly by capturing the Azart radio gear frequency, password & encryption setting documents of the 1st VDV assault on the Antonov facility.

Zelinsky's leadership & Russian corruption (including tires as well as radios!), plus the blood of

12/
...Ukrainian Patriots beat all of Putin's plans.

13/End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Apr 5
This is the price the US DoD & military services are paying for the it's Flag rank officers who never "fix our computers."

1/
As a reminder of the current DoD civilian senior appointed political & Flag Rank officers, this is the problem you leadership failed to own.

2/
americanmilitarynews.com/2022/02/open-l… Image
Read 4 tweets
Apr 5
This is a Rail logistics & Drone 🧵thread.

Much is being made of the arrival of the US Switchblade drones and the ability of the 600 model to reach 50 miles to kill tanks & artillery.

That isn't how you beat the Russian Army
1/
You don't beat the Russian Army in a tank/artillery attritional fight. Ukraine in particular does not have the depth of forces to grind on Russia tank to tank, MLRS versus MLRS.

Ukraine has shown you stop the Russian Army by killing its trucks.

2/
To kill a dug in a Russian Army in Donbas, you have to destroy its trains.

Take a look at the Donbas area in this railway map.
3/
Read 8 tweets
Apr 4
This is a near term, course of the Ukrainian War, prediction thread🧵

Russian air forces at Melitopol are now in AFU long range rocket artillery attack range via BM-30 Smersh & Toshka-U now on the north shore of the Dneiper.
1/
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BM-30_Sme…
The major Ukrainian airbase at Melitopol was the former hub for Ukrainian Il-76MD CANDID operations.

It is now used as a FOB for Russian helos & Su-25's.

The AFU is now making public comparisons to the RuAF experience with Smersh & Toshka-U at Chornobaivka AB near Kherson.
2/ ImageImage
Now the predictions.

Right now Ukrainian Aerorozvidka ATV & Drone teams & a lot of ATGM's are being infiltrated across the Dnieper river at night to besiege Kherson & scout Melitopol with Ukrainian SF stay behind teams & Territorial defense forces.
3/
Read 12 tweets
Apr 4
Short EW 🧵

Most people have missed how badly the loss of this Russian AF plane to Ukraine near Izium is.

The right wing tip had an electronic warfare self protection pod (EWSP) and it came down intact enough for a good technical analysis.

1/
It might be either a SAP-518 or KNIRTI L005 Sorbtsiya wingtip pod.

2/ Image
For reference, this is a Su-34 FULLBACK with KNIRTI SAP14 and two wing tip SAP518 DRFM jamming pods

3/ Image
Read 6 tweets
Apr 2
It is evident today that the only Neo-Nazis in Ukraine wear Russian Army uniforms

#BuchaMassacre is only the beginning

As Russian positions are over run. The extent of Putin's plans to "Suppress the Ukrainian people" will show up as the Ukrainian bodies on his FSB kill lists
1/
The Biden Administration "De-Escalation Faction" is now politically dead and damned.

The coming days will find multiple #BuchaMassacre because that is the way Russian "Special Operations" work.

2/
Spreaker Pelosi cannot stop & Senate Majority Leader Schumer won't even try to get in the way of a bi-partisan Congressional resolution demanding the Biden Administration send NATO & surplus US fighters to Ukraine.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Apr 2
This tweet reinforces something I said earlier about Russian MLRS reload vehicle "Western Intelligence shiny things" & the reality of Russian Army logistics.

Something like 90% of the RuAF MLRS rocket reload production, storage & transportation supply chain looks like this
1/
Western intelligence inability to understand the reality of manual labor, because of the overwhelming university graduate class based world view, left it unable to see the Russian Army as it really was.

There is a lot of political hay to be made by Congressmen & Senators
2/
...asking the Defense Department & the civilian intelligence agencies about that in public testimony before a Joint House-Senate committee on the failures of the Ukraine War like the one on the CIA assassination program.

3/
Read 5 tweets

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