In Trent's excellent analysis, the strategic flooding is a whole subject to itself. It was a key element to winning the Battle of Kyiv. Flooding impacted the convoy, the battle of Irpin, the delayed encirclement of Kyiv. It helped push Russians into areas for Ukraine ambush
I want to underline this point. A whole separate study will be made of how to use flooding in modern warfare
It is not just to create water barrier. And in flatlands around Kyiv with rich soil, incredibly useful mud as obstacle against attacker. It is FAR FAR more than that
This flooding was done at WINTER time. The water on the Dnipro (Dnieper) River is FREEZING cold. If not moving, it will freeze. When freezing, it freezes on top but still flows below, creating flat surface you think you can walk on that will fail. & there will be snowfall to top
The flooding would come RAPIDLY. Any troops on the way of the flooding will get wet. This is not ordinary wet. It is ice-cold water that just made you wet. Your feet & legs are now freezing even if you get out of the water, you will likely catch pnemonia. You might lose your feet
Then comes the VISIBILITY. A thin layer of water, knee deep, will TOTALLY obstruct the ground under that flooding muddy water. If you put small obstacles or had dug SMALL trenches before the flooding any tank or armored vehicle commander will not SEE them and drive into them..
If the Ukrainians had a flooding plan - and now we see they did - they could build MODEST defenses against invaders, that if you saw the obstacles, then you could easily avoid them, but under flooded conditions, are perfect TOTAL barriers
The we get the mud. Even after the the flood has subsided, you've now muddied that part around Kyiv. The Ukrainians have no need to 'attack into it'. It is ONLY the Russian who has to attack THROUGH the mud. Mud slows down or traps tracked vehicles & makes turning very difficult
What Ukraine did, was targeted localized flooding. This minor river. This field, this part of town. We saw satellite photos of Irpin on it. That prevented one path that Russian Generals had looked on a map, that is the way we go. Very VERY clever by Ukraine
One last point. This ability to use flooding will work to Ukraine's advantage throughout rest of the war, & in most cases, Russians are DOWNSTREAM to the Ukrainian position, so the waters would flow AT the Russians. Russia does not have the ability to use flooding against Ukraine
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As I told you in the Weekly update, Ukraine's smartest way to defeat the invader Russian army, is to take the Three Fronts in sequence, one by one. To send overwhelming force to defeat one of them (Northern army) first. Then after that is wiped out, next.
This is a war...
This is a war, and Russia is not sitting still. While we saw a big victory for Ukraine in the Northern front, and total Russian retreat not just in Kyiv but all Northern units, the fighting continues in East & South
The relief of Mariupol is for geographic reasons among last
We do not know yet details of the surrender, how many troops - and Russia is famous for making false claims. Hold on, let's see how this story develops. We can expect setback in East & South fronts, before Ukraine gets full force to next front it will win with overwhelming force
Sr Renee was Catholic nun sent to Helsinki to teach at The English School 6 decades ago. I was her student from 1970-1976. She taught me History (& English Grammar & Music).
I never thought I might ever become a 'Historian' haha..
Those of you who have followed me for a long time know, I tend to go DEEP into historical background of whatever we talk about, whether Afghanistan or the Trumpomess, or the Fox brainwashed Magacult, or now Ukraine war. Mentioning Chechnya and Winter War and Churchill etc etc etc
That is me channeling Sr Renee. And that I insist on tossing silly jokes into my History lessons, like Russian Colonel Leggy McTanky? That is quintessentially Sr Renee. She was the most hysterically funny teacher I had ever had. She made us laugh every single class.
After Bucha war crimes, and the ongoing terror campaign against Mariupol etc. This is what the West need to do:
Arm Ukraine to the maximum, so that this war can be brought to an end THE FASTEST. Give them the jets, the tanks, the long range anti-aircraft, the weapons to WIN THIS
All of the support so far has been useful and it is needed. But Ukraine has ASKED for certain types of weapons. If they get these, the war ends FASTER. The war crimes end FASTER
Jets. The single most important thing Ukraine needs to end this war faster - is FIGHTER JETS
In all modern wars, the control of the sky is paramount. Currently Ukraine's own air force is not strong enough to contol its own sky. Get them FIGHTER JETS
This is the most important need. FIGHTER JETS
If Ukraine had fighters, it could support AIR drop supplies to Mariupol
I truly truly feared that 4 hour scenario, because Russia (Soviets) had done it so many times in the past. When I heard on Apr 24 that Ukraine had retaken Antonov Airport, I knew instantly, that Ukraine is 'prepared'
But then worried...
but then worried, like most of you that Ukraine might fall. That Kyiv might fall. The Russian army came right to the gates of Kyiv. It was a huge menace
Why were they just 'sitting there'. They didn't send thousands of tanks & armored vehicles just to come and stare at Zelensky
I did not want to come post my deepest worries and fears, but also, I felt that some Western analysts were WAY too pessimistic. Ukraine had fought THIS Russian army for 8 years in Donbas. And Ukraine is 1/3 the size of Russia by population
The Battle of Kyiv was decisive battle in Ukraine War that Russia launced invading on Feb 24, 2022. Russian assault on Kyiv was catastrophic military failure, overwhelming victory for Ukraine
Battle ended 31 March with total retreat
This is summary
Battle of Kyiv Thread 2/
Because of Social Media, we have a unique ability to reconstruct history in near-real time, to know EXACTLY what happened and WHEN. And sort out the lies, propaganda and 'fog of war'. Not WHILE it happens, but very shortly thereafter
This is my attempt
Battle of Kyiv Thread 3/
During the battle we cannot know WHICH of the social media postings is accurate, even to the best honest efforts of those posting (because it could have been misunderstanding or a deliberate military diversion, intended to get attention). But after..
We know this. Russia took control of the Chernobyl / Chornobyl site of the nuclear accident when they invaded Ukraine 5 weeks ago. They stationed troops at the site. Ukrainian nuclear safety experts WARNED Russians to take precautions & observed poor safety protocols
We know that during the Russian occupation of the site, the radioactive dust on the road surfaces was regularly disturbed. There has been more (mildly) radioactive dust permanently at the roads & near the roads - & Russian soldiers NOT WEARING masks or protective gear