Got questions about why I think it is genocide. Until this morning I resisted applying the term. War crimes? Sure. Heinous rhetoric? You bet. What changed is the combination of more and more evidence, from different places, and even more importantly, explicit official rhetoric /1
The official legal definition of genocide is "acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such". When I teach genocide I start by saying that this definition has huge problems because it doesn't give us /2
clear thresholds (what "in part" does even mean?) and because it is almost impossible to prove intent. People who carry out genocide are usually not idiots, if there are orders at all they would be given orally.
But, several things are important to realize. First, something /3
that doesn't start as genocide might evolve into one when conditions change. Russian invasion, in my view, did not start with clear genocidal intent, but evolved into one. Regime change and colonial subjugation are by themselves not enough to constitute genocide. Second, more /4
evidence that Bucha is not an exception. Each massacre might be local initiative, together they are a campaign. And most importantly, the RIA Novosti (a state outlet) piece is one of the most explicit statements of intent to destroy a national group as such that I've ever seen /5
I know Russian. I have read a lot of Russian nationalist rhetoric in my life. This is not some wild intellectual fantasy, it is a clear, actionable statement of intent by a state agency. The UN definition is problematic, but in this case it fits like a glove
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Intent to Destroy is here! A book that I never imagined writing, hated to write and now so glad I did. This is the UK version, the US one has a different cover, though both are published by Basic Books @BasicBooks and @BasicBooksUK. So, a short 🧵
This is not an academic study but a general audience book. My goal was not to present some major discoveries but to tell, for the first time (to the best of my knowledge) in a single volume the story of Russia’s obsession with Ukraine since the 19th century till the current war,
the violence this obsession unleashed (not just the Russian/Soviet violence) and its impact on the people of Ukraine, not just ethnic Ukrainians but everyone. Some parts of this history are well known, of others, such as the Russian occupation policies in Galicia in 1914-15
To those freaking out about about Trump handing Ukraine over to Putin (I have seen quite a few), several simple things to remember: 1. Ukraine is not Trump's to hand over 2. Ukrainians can and will decide for themselves whether to fight on 3. Donate, donate, donate
4. There are other countries besides the US and leaders besides Trump. Lobby those who have a voice there 5. Remember that it was Obama who refused to give Ukraine Javelins and it was Trump who did. Not because Trump loves Ukraine but because Trump is chaotic and unpredictable
6. In chaos, things happen. Some bad, some unpredictably good 7. Contact you representatives and fight to keep if not the aid, then at least the sanctions 8. Invest in studying and supporting Ukraine's culture, language, identity. This is what Russia wants to destroy the most
Just to be clear, I am not just piling up on Kara-Murza, who is a very brave and honest individual, this is a structural problem for Russian liberals, one I am talking about since long before 2022 or even 2014. Countries need legitimacy and identity: who we are and who we aren't
From this choice of national identity flow multiple policies and decisions, both domestic and foreign. The best time to articulate this identity is a birth of a state or a systemic crisis when the slate wiped clean. For Russia and other ex-Soviet states this moment was 1991-1992
Here, Russian liberals had the worst hand. Others had previous stories to tell: of independence, statehood, return to Europe, or simply not being Russia and rejecting what Russia (understood as USSR) stood for. If USSR and Russian Empire were autocracies, we will be different
Today Ukraine celebrates its Unity Day. On this day in 1919 Ukraine People's Republic (UNR) proclaimed unification with the West Ukraine People's Republic (ZUNR), originally roughly the area of Austro-Hungarian Eastern Galicia. Both states failed and the ZUNR especially is barely
known to anyone but a handful of historians. Yet it was a bold even if short-lived political experiment, especially when it came to Ukrainian-Jewish relations. Western Ukraine is known as the land of Bandera, extreme nationalism, anti-Semitic violence etc. RU propaganda goes to
overdrive to reinforce this image. Well, it was very different after WWI. ZUNR recognized not only the individual political rights of Jews as equal citizens, which was the standard in post-WWI new states, but also their collective national and cultural rights. It had a Ministry
Earlier this week a journalist asked me how this might end now, with the partial mobilization and referendums. I said that I don't see a realistic endgame scenario. Then I spent several days thinking about it. I still don't see it, at least not anytime soon. So, some thoughts 1/
1. Ukraine has the will, the resources and the capacity to fight. Even if Russia mobilizes every bear in Siberia and reindeer in Yakutia, Ukraine will keep fighting. Even if Russia uses nuclear weapons, Ukraine will keep fighting. I think this should clear to everyone by now 2/
2. Russia has the will and the resources to fight, there are still unmobilized bears in Siberia, reindeer in Yakutia and people willing to go fight in the provinces. Human life is cheap in Russia, especially outside Moscow 3/
This is interesting. Assuming that this NRA even exists and it is not a FSB outfit, there are very good reasons to be either very skeptical or very excited. I researched the emergence of resistance groups in highly opressive environments. My own work on Jewish resistance in the
ghettos but I have also read about many, many other cases. The truth is that the vast majority of nascent resistance or insurgent groups are nipped in the bud before they manage to do anything. If some get lucky and do something notable, they tend to be destroyed immediately
after. Why? Because many people: students, idealists, political opponents, outright nutjobs want to resist oppressive governments. By only a handful know how. There is a very specific “resister toolkit” that people need to survive and operate underground. Opsec is the key but