Thread by @billroggio

1) Russia's attempt to surround and capture Kiev has failed after meeting fierce resistance from Ukrainian forces, and poor execution by the Russian military. The seige of Chernihiv has also been lifted. Map from @nytimes.

2) The capture of Kiev was one of several key objectives for Russia. The south (Black Sea & Sea of Azov) & east (Donbas) are the other objectives, & fighting continues there. Russia still controls considerable territory and is attempting to encircle Ukrainian troops in the east.

3) Russia announced it was pulling back from Kiev a week ago after 'achieving its objectives' and in order to de-escalate, & would shift resources to focus on the Donbas region. Clearly propaganda. Russia's defeat in Kiev certainly wasn't part of its plan.

4) The Russian military advanced to the eastern and western outskirts of Kiev but failed to sustain its forces due to superior Ukrainian perseverance and tactics, Russian logistical problems, tactical incompetence, and a failure to commit more resources to the fight.

5) It is clear that the Russian leadership/military came to the conclusion that pouring more resources into the maw of Kiev would not help it achieve its objective. The Russian military lost significant numbers of armored vehicles and troops in the Kiev operation ...

6) ... although I do think the 40,000 killed/wounded number floated is inflated.

Keep in mind we still don't understand the extent of Ukraine's losses in the battle for Kiev. Ukrainian forces will also have to consolidate and refit for the next fight.

8) While Russia's loss in Kiev certainly stings Putin and Moscow, it did serve to tie down Ukrainian resources needed in the east & south, where Russia has made significant gains and theoretically has an advantage with shorter supply lines, control of seas, etc.

9) "Theoretically" because it is unclear if Russia will learn from its mistakes in Kiev. The loss is Kiev is a very bitter pill for the Russian military. If Russia wants to have success in the east & south, it will have to adapt and commit more resources.

10) Ukraine may be able to shift resources to the south & east, but it must continue to devote units to defend Kiev, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, etc. In the short term, a renewed Russian offensive against Kiev is highly unlikely, but Ukraine must remain vigilant.

11) Russia has intensified its operations in the Donbas & east. Izium fell last week and Russian troops are slowly advancing southward, while Russian forces on the east & west bank of the Dnieper River are attempting to push northward Zaporizhzhia & Kryvyi Rih.

12) Fighting outside of Mykolaiv continues and Ukrainian forces are counterattacking in an attempt to halt a westward Russian advance towards Odesa, the last major port Ukrainian-held on the Black Sea. Russia has launched missile strikes into Odesa.

13) Russia's mistakes (excluding the tactical issues) are that it underestimated the Ukrainian's willingness to defend Kiev, and overestimated its ability to effectively fight on multiple fronts.

14) Russia may have been better served by focusing on Kharkiv region, and the south and east, with a limited operation to tie down Ukrainian forces north of Kiev. It would have had more resources for operations in those theaters.

15) Ukraine's victory in Kiev is significant, but must be viewed as a victory in one battle in the war. Russia still controls significant territory in the south and east, and is pressing its offensives.

16) Sanctions have yet to break the Russian economy or lead to Putin's overthrow (there is evidence that Putin's popularity may growing, but that is unclear). Some NATO/EU countries, led by Germany, are resisting calls to increase sanctions due to dependance on Russian gas/oil.

17) President Zelensky has conceded on several Russian demands, including neutrality & non-NATO status. The issue of territory will be a major sticking point, and that likely will be dictated by success or failure on the battlefield. This war was never going to be quick.