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Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
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Apr 4 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
The increase of evidence of Russian equipment loss has grown so much in the last few days that @oryxspioenkop is having trouble keeping up.
Most recent update has Russian tank losses up to 425, 176 of which have been captured outright by the Ukrainians and potentially reusable. The Ukrainians have captured more and more advanced tanks than they have lost so far in the war. oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…
Ukraine has lost 93 tanks from all causes the large majority of which are T-64 (Soviet era tanks based on a model first built in 1964), while most of those captured have been T-72s with some T-80s and T-90s, all more modern and capable (designed 1972, 1980, 1990).
Actually Ukrainians have upgraded their T-64s in interesting ways that some have argued actually makes them qualitatively as good if not better than many Russian newer models. So Ukrainians have many more tanks than they’ve lost, but maybe not better. forbes.com/sites/davidaxe…
An interesting story of the Ukrainians using their best tank brigade to defend Chernihiv, one of the keys to the Battle of Kyiv. Seems that the Ukrainians were able to keep Russian air power at bay allowing them to use their upgraded T-64s to great effect. forbes.com/sites/davidaxe…
If the Russians have pulled out completely from the North, this is the kind of very strong unit that has been defending Kyiv that could be transferred to the Donbas.
U.K. MOD in its latest intelligence update is assuming a full withdrawal from the north.
Once those forces have gone, it won’t be quick to get them (or any other Russian forces) built up for another attempt at Kyiv. These troops are shot and have lost much of their equipment. A new force would require easy to see trainloads of equipment and many weeks of prep.
Ukraine should have some flexibility with some of their forces in the Kyiv region and they can get to the Donbas more quickly than the Russians.

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Apr 6
There is alot of interesting information in this pentagon briefing. Russians out of the north, have started to try and rebuild those units, will want to try and get them to Donbas quickly but not sure that they actually can. Right now there are 30 BTGs in Donbas….
BTGs estimated to have started the campaign with 800-1000 soldiers. (How many they would have left at this point is a guess, but probably safe to say approx 20000 at most).
(If this is right, the present force in Donbas, imo, is nowhere near large enough to be able to do the job of taking that region)
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Apr 6
Thanks @EliotACohen , you are right the next period will reveal a great deal about how combat effective these troops are. Also important for us to understand how this fits into the long war narrative.
In response to my thread @RALee85 wrote this saying it’s not a matter of trust but numbers. It’s an interesting distinction but I think it does gloss over something important.
The Russians could be sending the 25% of their unused BTGs to the Donbas, a force which would be approximately equal to the forces deployed in the north around Kyiv etc. they could also be trying to assemble fresh forces from the still unused 100000s of army forces.
Read 5 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Apr 6
Updating this thread today. Another reason that Ukrainian government estimates of Russia losses might be more accurate, is that their estimates do seem to go through interesting lulls. Only 8 tanks added to the estimates since yesterday.
Here are the most recent.
If you think back to earlier in the war, that was the case for Fuel tanks. Early in the war when Russian logistics seemed truly awful and amateurish, the Ukrainians claimed to have destroyed 60 fuel tanks. That number has only crept up a little since, to 76.
Read 6 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Apr 6
The Russian Army might be in worse shape than imagined (and Ive probably been about as skeptical about their condition as anyone since this started). It also looks like Putin doesnt trust forces that were not sent to Ukraine in the first place.
Why? There are signs that the Russians want to send the troops that have pulled out of Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy into the Donbas quickly, including those responsible for the Bucha massacre. english.nv.ua/nation/russian…
Pentagon sources are saying that the plan is to send about two-thirds of the forces that the Russians have pulled out of the north and redeploy to the south and east.
Read 16 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Apr 5
A thread on claimed Russian losses, and why the Ukrainian official claims might be far more accurate than people think.
Its important to be skeptical of any government claiming losses inflicted on an enemy, historically such figures can be grossly inflated. One extreme example was the Japanese government in World War II, which claimed to basically wipe out the US Pacific fleet in every battle.
Only for the pesky Pacific Fleet to keep being amazingly rebuilt in a few months and appearing closer to Japan each time. As such, Ive never used official Ukrainian claims on Russian losses during this war. Here is the most recent claims.
Read 17 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Apr 4
Does anyone else think that this will be the exact spin that Tucker Carlson puts on these atrocities tonight?
Probably should have mentioned that I wrote an article for @TheCriticMag on what I called the real culture war, which is not the childish war on some but a political clash with what I called the Carlson-Corbyn axis. Let me know what you think. thecritic.co.uk/the-phoney-war/
One thing I’ve found is that while Carlson fans just get angry and threaten to ignore you, Corbyn supporters seem desperate to prove that their man is somehow blameless and full of virtue. So there is a difference there.
Read 4 tweets

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