Thread by @MarkHertling

The National Security Advisor @jakejsullivan just briefed what might happen next.

His brief fits well into my desire to provide a 🧵 on what both sides face in the next weeks/months.

Key topics: what we'll see, regeneration, & the battle of attrition that is coming 1/22

The NSA said RU wants to refocus on Donbas...the east of UKR where there's been fighting since 2014.

That seems likely, but there's more to it. I don't expect a RU "frontal assault" into Donetsk & Lahansk, but rather an envelopment from N & S.

And...perhaps more. 2/

RU's original strategic objectives were to destroy UKR army/subjugate the population.

They will NOT give up territorial gains they've made in the N...the road from Kharkiv to Izyum

There is still the desire to control Donbas & they also want the Azov & Black Sea coasts. 3/

Along the coasts, the fights in Mariupol & Berendyansk in the east have been brutal, as have the fights in Kherson and Mykolaiv (in the west)

In the S, they get logistics from their bases in Crimea.

But RU will want more - much more - in the South. 4/

RU still wants Odesa...and more.

I believe the plan is "hold in the east, move S from Kharkiv and Izyum, link Mariupol w/ Donetsk S of the Dnieper, move N toward Dnipro, attk from the sea, & move further W to Odesa...& beyond?

Here's an imprecise operational sketch: 5/

Less ambitious than the original plan...

but still indicative of a lack of troop-to-task reqt, log support planning, understanding of terrain & UKR Army, & knowledge of the capability of the UKR force.

I will predict - again - RU will be challenged with all this
6/

Over the last few days, we've heard the RU force N of Kyiv is "withdrawing" or "redeploying."

Both those terms indicate a force moving under a pre-determined plan.

That's not what happened N of Kyiv.

The RU forces there were mauled, routed. 7/

The RU forces - of various types - have suffered losses beyond comprehension. Some estimates have said 10-15%...I'd put it closer to 30-50% of the front line combat units.

This isn't a computer game, or stratego...those forces do not just leave one area to fight in another.8/

UKR MoD estimated RU casualty figures of 18,000+ soldiers; 700 tanks destroyed or captured.

As an old tank Division Commander, those figures are unfathomable to me.

The US went into Desert Storm with 400k+ troops and a bunch of equipment...imagine those losses back then. 9/

Which brings me to RECONSTITUTION, a doctrinal term describing REORGANIZATION of units (into other units, or combining depleted units together) with REGENERATION of capabilities (due to loss of leadership, men, equipment, supplies).

It's hard, sometimes impossible. 10/

The US Army has doctrine on reconstitution & there has been extensive study in military schoolhouses.

Luckily, we've never had to do it combat. But we do practice it at our training centers.

Here's a "lesson learned" pamphlet from @USArmy_CALL 11/

usacac.army.mil/sites/default/…

To reconstitute, you need to consider:
1. State of chain of command (leadership)
2. Personnel losses
3. Equipment readiness to reenter the fight
4. Supplies on hand to support the equipment & men
5. Training needs to overcome first fight failures

RU gets an F in all. 12/

Based on loss of leaders, loss of RU soldiers, the terrible condition of equipment & supplies going into the fight, the extremely poor training of RU units, regeneration is gonna be tough.

You can't throw units like these back into the fight and expect different results. 13/

The DIA assessment is that RU has committed 60-70% of their fighting units to this mission.

RU is also at the beginning of a new conscription process, with old conscripted schedule to leave soon.

I'd suggest RU is not in great shape to continue this campaign anytime soon. 14/

There's another piece. RU soldiers have been in the field Belorus for months, in intense combat over 6 wks.

Physical, mental, psychological & emotional factors have taken their toll.

Many have committed criminal actions.

Those troops, in my view, are done. 15/

Add to this something I've said earlier (and will portray with this hand-drawn graphic): Movement. RU must use exterior lines to reposition units, while UKR can use interior lines.

It's about 1400 miles - the distance between Boston & St Louis - around UKR. 16/

Certainly, Ukrainian troops & territorial forces have also taken a toll...but they have massive support from civilians, politicians, each other. And they're fighting on their own ground. They're getting resupplied, albeit slowly. That should increase. 17/

So, here's the matchup
RUSSIA:
-RU likely hasn't fixed any of their many problems
-their units are spent, and there are few replacements
-their logistics base is bad, and will get worse
-they are still attacking on at least 3 axes & appear to not have a centralized command. 18/

-a call for war crime tribunals
-Most importantly, they are facing resistance from UKR forces, territorials & civilians...who are all increasingly pissed about what RU has done to their country, and how they've committed war crimes. 19/

UKR:
-Also spent from fighting, but maintain great initiative & the fighting spirit. They've suffered casualties, but likely way less than RU.
-They have interior lines & support from citizens & allies (again, more than most realize).
-Better civilian & military leadership. 20/

-UA will face RU attacks on different axes & will need to quickly maneuver forces to face RUs at different locations.
-regeneration of logistics, equipment, personnel will be as important to UKR as it will be to RU, because that's what a battle of attrition requires. 21/

Bottom line:

The civilian casualties and war crimes will affect Ukraine, but they will fight on.

And I still believe they must - and will - defeat and perhaps destroy the RU army. 22/22