Thread by @TrentTelenko

This is a near term, course of the Ukrainian War, prediction thread🧵

Russian air forces at Melitopol are now in AFU long range rocket artillery attack range via BM-30 Smersh & Toshka-U now on the north shore of the Dneiper.
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en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BM-30_Sme…

The major Ukrainian airbase at Melitopol was the former hub for Ukrainian Il-76MD CANDID operations.

It is now used as a FOB for Russian helos & Su-25's.

The AFU is now making public comparisons to the RuAF experience with Smersh & Toshka-U at Chornobaivka AB near Kherson.
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Now the predictions.

Right now Ukrainian Aerorozvidka ATV & Drone teams & a lot of ATGM's are being infiltrated across the Dnieper river at night to besiege Kherson & scout Melitopol with Ukrainian SF stay behind teams & Territorial defense forces.
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https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1510745445940842500

And what I mean by the Aerorozvidka "scouting" is they are flying their DJI drones, landing them on isolated stretches of road the Territorial Defense 'road watchers' tell them are frequented by Russian supply trucks, & are then generating digital target reference points for
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...long range rocket artillery & local mortars.

The latter are being infiltrated across the Dnieper with the ATGM's.

These rocket & mortar TRP will supplement Ukrainian convoy kill teams awaiting big game.

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The repetition of the RuAF experience at Chornobaivka AB will eventually cause a similar Melitopol AB bug out.

The big game the Aerorozvidka are waiting for are the RuAF mechanics, tool & spare parts in the trucks leaving the Melitopol AB.

With those gone the RuAF loses the
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...ability to generate enough air interdiction sorties in the South to stop a AFU general offensive by it's mobile mechanized brigades crossing the Dnieper.

This will force Russian ground forces out of their fortified positions to deal with the Ukrainian mobile formations
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Then the real trap will be spring.

You see, the real Ukrainian killing force isn't their mobile brigades.

It is the light infantry ATGM & Drone supported mortar teams who are listening to compromised Russian radios.
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https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1510745458477572098

A lot of these ATGM & Drone "Fire sack" ambushes will be at night to minimize Ukrainian casualties due to the lack of Russian night vision devices & aircraft PGM's.

Given the Ukrainian penetration of Russian Azart radios, Russian mechanized units will be slow, clumsy &

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...brittle in Southern Ukrainian mobile operations.

If the Ukrainians play their cards right. This is the recipe for a Russian Army general collapse & rout to Crimea.

The reason I'm laying this out ahead of time is due to the fact the Russians are helpless to stop it
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The only counter to light infantry the way the Ukrainians are using it is more Russian air mobile light infantry in helicopters.

The Russian name for that is the VDV.

Which was p--sed away trying to take Kyiv.

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And even if the Russians placed VDV remnants into helicopters in the South. They would still have no reliable radios.

While Ukrainian light infantry🇺🇦🇺🇦 has Stinger, Starstreak & Aerorozvidka Drones.

Schadenfreude is a b---h and her stripper name is Karma.

12/End