Thread by @AlexanderFaludy

🧵 So my take on #hungaryelections + surprise devastating defeat of United Opposition. NB defeat not surprising but extent was (to them, pollsters, journalists + even #Fidesz). Important to reflect on how this should change our view of situ here. Some of this is painful to write.

x2 caveats.
1) This isn’t about polling technicalities/quantitive data. Others have provided good technical explanations of poll + projection errors. This is qualitative reflection on how I (+others) have misread realities in #Hungary.

2) Nothing here denies electoral system + context = v. unfair to #Hungary’s opposition.Multiple reports show no level playing field. BUT, while things were slanted against oppo. election was definitely *not* ‘rigged’ -see @OSCE report. Oppo vote down cf 2018 for other reasons.

So those things said, here goes.

1st,must be acknowledged that large minority of #Hungary’s voters = happy with life under #Fidesz, support govt, believe in its polices, benefit from them, + don’t believe there is big problem with corruption. Partly = because of propaganda but we also all have ‘filters’.

However that ‘core vote’ prob not enough for #Fidesz to win an election (certainly not 2/3 majority) even with support from Ethnic Hungarians in neighbour states,co-ercion of #Roma on public works schemes etc. Has to be faced that many others vote Fidesz despite knowing problems.

So 2nd, there = many who vote for Fidesz not because they ‘buy’ the project but because they are not sufficiently bothered by its short comings to want change and/or benefit directly from the system in one way or other. They are happy to make a ‘trade-off’ (as voters do in West).

Beyond them there are (3rd) a surprisingly many people actively unhappy with #Fidesz but who feel unable to support opposition. They are fully (or at least largely) aware of serious problems but do not trust the opposition to fix them [can’t say I blame them].

For them life under #Fidesz =‘Bad but predictable’ whereas that under opposition risked being ‘bad but chaotic’ in terms of constitutional chaos + governance gridlock. Given how oppo ran their campaign (or rather failed to run it) this inference was understandable.

Importantly fact that many govt voters boycotted the LGBT referendum ad thereby invalidated it shows that they are not duped by Fidesz propaganda/ know there are problems. They just could not trust the opposition to fix them.

Lastly: Hungary needs much better eco-system for developing talent in oppo parties.Many problems = rooted in society + culture more than created by political / legal structures. Hungary’s issues won’t be fixed by an election but by nurturing a better politics. Long term stuff.