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Paul Maidowski Profile picture
@_ppmv
Apr 5, 2022 • 27 tweets • 15 min read • Read on X
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Wow, thanks! @bberwyn pulls off a rare feat: not to repeat a pattern that most IPCC articles follow. He cuts to the heart.

With deep gratitude to IPCC colleagues for their difficult work, @ClimateHuman and I kindly call for an uprising and new economics.

insideclimatenews.org/news/05042022/…

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(not so) Brief notes for those who want to address root causes.

1. What pattern do most IPCC articles follow?

Try @marcsrhudson's 1990 game, you'll be amazed how well it works on climate!

Joke is on us - @bberwyn @insideclimate break the mold 🙏🤣

2. How to build economic systems that respect energy and resource constraints?

We need physically constrained, stock/flow-consistent economics. To start eg @nephologue @ProfSteveKeen @prof_grasselli's work.



agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…
rebuildingmacroeconomics.ac.uk/integrating-ma…
3. The IPCC can only summarize and amplify what the existing literature says.

Senior academics, this on you. Let's be real, time is up. Speak up in public, guide us and provide the models & resources we need to challenge power.

As @ProfBillMcGuire warns, billmcguire.substack.com/p/an-open-lett…
4. One function of the IPCC is to negotiate the "politically possible" (= agenda setting) & do science within these limits.

Dennis Meadows explains this by contrasting IPCC & Limits to Growth. LTG 1972 defined the physically possible, and was thus promptly ignored by economists. Image
5. Few pundits and politicians know that ALL IPCC scenarios (SSPs) assume infinite growth even if we lose habitat (RCP85). We'll all get private jets in hell, jests Tim.

This is how we blinded ourselves. Would be nice if economists and IPCC faced reality.

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6. GREAT, insightful exchange with Dennis Meadows, powered by @NJHagens' questions.

Also read Dana Meadows' famous essay on humility & how to spot high-leverage points in systems. 💚

We need these ideas to slow climate breakdown.


donellameadows.org/archives/lever…
7. Must-reads:

—@ProfSteveKeen on Nordhaus
—Sterman 2012, also on Nordhaus

If we criticize models, don't take it personally.

What can we learn from them for decisionmaking? (also, you can still hire me, I'm v nice off twitter ;)

tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…


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8. Could have said more - feel free to reach out, correct or add & share!

These are genuinely urgent scientific questions.

An honor to be quoted alongside Jim Skea @BillHareClimate @ClimateHuman, but recall that I merely integrate ideas shared by many here. Thx all!

End part 1
9. @MuellerTadzio expresses our despair at the madness of normality that propels us forward, largely unchallenged, to threaten life itself.

System dynamics, the field used in LTG - but not in the IPCC! -, can help us understand why all this is happening.

10. @JamesGDyke explains it in an IPCC context.

You see, some of us have been TERRIFIED of this for a over decade—but we're not even mainstream yet, nor in the IPCC.

Think this is hyperbole? Go deeper.

Thanks James and @bberwyn, such articles help!

theconversation.com/climate-change…
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11. Learning can be emotionally & cognitively taxing. Pace yourself.

—@NJHagens is great:



—Understanding grows from reading the original papers. Some take a sabbatical to learn. I did - painful, but needed.
read.realityblind.world/view/975731937…

sci-hub.se/10.1016/j.ecol…

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12. Kind souls often ask how climate policy makes sense.

Yes, it's not YOU. It doesn't.

Never prioritize climate hope over truth. Trust is earned; people smell BS a mile against the wind. Our superpower is honesty.

Now you see the context

@KevinClimate


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13. @SaraSchurmann's new book #KlartextKlima takes you on a personal journey of learning.

Worth sharing also because she kindly offers media critique from a professional perspective. How can we as societies and journalists learn and move forward?

14. Sorry for length and directness. We covered a lot - take with you what helps you.

Hope the references help some of you learn faster and earlier than I did. The past few years - and for many of you even decades - have been a hard journey.

Thanks for all your work. Way to go!
15. Now, back to organizing. This is about your & your kids' futures, about values you hold dear - empathy, freedoms, human rights, law, justice.

1. Anyone can join @JustStop_Oil @AufstandLastGen @ScientistRebel1.

2. Anyone can learn/work on the Arctic:
16. "The collapse of global ecosystems has begun. Only an emergency exit from fossil fuels and the exploitation of our planet can still stop it," says Nikolaus Froitzheim @ExtinctionR_DE @XRBerlin.

This is a call of hope to rethink & rebuild the economy.

@ExtinctionR_DE @XRBerlin 17. Here an overview. Recall: neoclassical economics can address non-climate questions, eg energy economics, but not climate. This explains its schizophrenic character. Even ecological economics struggles. A profound challenge - I hope many can take it on.
18. If anyone wants to support this work, my patreon is:

I won't spam you, twitter being enough for present purposes, and pass some $ on to folks I learn from, eg @jim27182 @ProfSteveKeen

Thanks everyone for your support! It helps to keep us going.💚🙏patreon.com/paulmaidowski
@jim27182 @ProfSteveKeen 19. How many police officers does it take to arrest four climate scientists? @ScientistRebel1 @ClimateHuman 🤣🙏

Brilliant. Make sure everyone knows their kids are at stake. As @camoranesi_jabo says, #scicomm is key. We won't win without. @AufstandLastGen
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@jim27182 @ProfSteveKeen @ScientistRebel1 @ClimateHuman @camoranesi_jabo @AufstandLastGen 20. Context here if you want follow up. Join @JustStop_Oil @ExtinctionR_DE or start your own networks if aesthetics or TOPC don't speak to you.

Just don't be naïve.

No one is coming to rescue you. Hiding in models that ignore reality is > irresponsible.

@jim27182 @ProfSteveKeen @ScientistRebel1 @ClimateHuman @camoranesi_jabo @AufstandLastGen @JustStop_Oil @ExtinctionR_DE 21. Forgot to mention @MuellerTadzio as a good soul from whom I learn. To support:

If you see beyond the bubble, you know that the brighter police officers know as well as do we where things are heading. Climate change is changing everything. Think ahead.
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@bberwyn @ClimateHuman I wonder why climate scientists don't see it. IPCC models generate the overshoot-and-collapse dynamics of Limits to Growth. The only difference is they assume infinite growth. @bberwyn's article added as background. @ProfBillMcGuire @ProfSteveKeen @IPCC_CH insideclimatenews.org/news/05042022/…

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@jim27182 @ProfSteveKeen @ScientistRebel1 @ClimateHuman @camoranesi_jabo @AufstandLastGen @JustStop_Oil @ExtinctionR_DE @MuellerTadzio 22. Worth adding an update one year later: As I often pointed out, @DrJamesEHansen's prescient warnings of the past 15 years were silenced by the mainstream (his words: censored). Face reality, friends.

Similarly, @RealTadzioM's old account was suspended.



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@jim27182 @ProfSteveKeen @ScientistRebel1 @ClimateHuman @camoranesi_jabo @AufstandLastGen @JustStop_Oil @ExtinctionR_DE @MuellerTadzio @DrJamesEHansen @RealTadzioM 23. Worthy addition to this climate & IPCC review thread. As we warned for 5+ years, notably @dwallacewells in his famous essay. "Fatally flawed" is putting it kindly. Climate economists, anyone of you care to develop better models? theintercept.com/2023/10/29/wil…

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@jim27182 @ProfSteveKeen @ScientistRebel1 @ClimateHuman @camoranesi_jabo @AufstandLastGen @JustStop_Oil @ExtinctionR_DE @MuellerTadzio @DrJamesEHansen @RealTadzioM @dwallacewells I have no fancy professorship in Yale, so when we say this no one listens, but this was long obvious to anyone with academic training in relevant fields. - "Fate of humanity" may be overpromising but we certainly cannot have rational policy without profound failure analysis here. Image
@jim27182 @ProfSteveKeen @ScientistRebel1 @ClimateHuman @camoranesi_jabo @AufstandLastGen @JustStop_Oil @ExtinctionR_DE @MuellerTadzio @DrJamesEHansen @RealTadzioM @dwallacewells What @cketchamwild gets wrong: the deluded idea of 'climate damages' in neoclassical (mainstream) economics, incl. in the IPCC, isn't "10% loss from current world GDP" but 10% from a future fantastical world economy an order of magnitude larger than today. theintercept.com/2023/10/29/wil…
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More from @_ppmv

Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Nov 19
1. May do SARS-CoV-2 science threads when I find time. "While association between ABO blood group and infection is well known for many years, lower susceptibility of O blood group to coronaviruses had already been reported nearly 20 years ago for SARS-CoV" degruyter.com/document/doi/1…
2. Transplacental SARS-CoV-2 protein Orf8 binds to complement C1q to trigger fetal inflammation - Yes, as we've been saying for years. Orf8 makes SARS (CoV-1/-2) unique among coronaviruses. Let's infect all the kids so we are really, really sure that's bad embopress.org/doi/full/10.10…Image
3. SARS-CoV-2 can trigger a devastating, destructive placental pathology causing placental dysfunction and fetal hypoxia, yet stillbirth is rare. The fetal hypoxia is acute/subacute, apparent as reduced fetal movements. 20% of participants in this study(!) sciencedirect.com/science/articl…Image
Read 8 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Sep 20
1. The structural parallels of SARS-CoV-2 and HIV-1 were known already 20 years ago, from SARS-CoV-1. Yet COVID-19 policy and even most scientists ignore these parallels, failing to learn key lessons. Fundamentally, genetic recombination drives both pandemics—two typical articles

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2. Don't worry about the specific article—there are hundreds more, and more relevant ones. The lesson here is we face syndemics, overlapping epidemics that cluster with inequity, not just distinct pandemics. All reinforce each other
link.springer.com/article/10.118…
frontiersin.org/journals/micro…
3. Background. There are literally thousands such articles; no one integrates them. That's why as political scientist, for years already, I've been arguing that only institutionalization can help with such complexity. We need a @UNAIDS for SARS-CoV, sorry
Read 29 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Sep 12
Is bamboo our best chance to sustain modern civilization and slow climate change? No one systematically studies its global potential in food, paper, energy, & construction yet. To build resilient economic and ecosystems, we need to grow bamboo where it is needed, incl Europe 👇☕️ Moso bamboo shoot (phyllostachys edulis)
“Self made” 80 liter air pot design and 12 liter air pot propagation set. Coffee for scale
40 year old moso bamboo in southwestern France grown from seed. Photo Lihua Jiang, www.yunnan-bamboo.com
1. It is no new idea to replace plastic, steel, concrete etc. with bamboo, just as these materials originally replaced timber, clay, and bamboo. When indigenous people in Taiwan move, they plant bamboo before all else, “because it does everything timber does and is much lighter.” Taiwan mountains 台灣新竹
2. Every mountaintop here has its own name in the local - non written - language, to be found on no map. By force or virtue, indigenous people know how to sustain themselves and live within their ecological limit (“habitat”), unlike industrial civilization. Mixed bamboo forest 👇 Image
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Read 32 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Aug 30
1. Growing bamboo is our best chance to avert climate breakdown: the plants build soil, help biodiversity, avoid GHG emissions, provide food & construction material, sequester carbon 30 times (!) faster than mixed temperate forest. Yet stunningly, no one coordinates this work yet 40 year old moso bamboo in southwestern France grown from seed. Photo Lihua Jiang, www.yunnan-bamboo.com
2. After 40 years of climate science - first AGGG, now IPCC -, everyone feels they know climate. Yet experts only really know their own field. Generalists and practitioners can implement solutions but need experts to develop them. Bamboo as climate solution is entirely unexplored
Two bamboo stands in Zhongshan Expo Park, Taipei
Bamboo species in Tapei botanical garden
3. Last time atmospheric carbon content was as high as today, 16 million years ago, Earth was >3°C warmer than today, the Arctic was ice free, and Iceland had a subtropical climate. People think they know what climate change means, but most really don't. mdpi.com/2673-4834/5/2/…
Read 47 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Aug 21
We’ve shared this for years, it was known or suspected even before the pandemic from SARS-CoV-1. Friends of we’re going to learn at this rate, ignoring prepandemic science, populations worldwide will get into serious trouble
Background. Thanks for outstanding science communications @vipintukur
I'd like to delete my account, but then a sizable fraction of the early Covid twitter scicomm documentation - to show what was known when - would be gone. As far as I know, no one else with even a moderately sized account (>10k followers) shares the same readily available science
Read 5 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jun 13
“Bamboo is our best chance to slow climate breakdown. It can replace drivers of GHG emissions and biodiversity loss (food, construction, concrete, plastic), build soil & allow regrowing rainforest." - Let's test it. Grow bamboo as blueprint for a future ecological civilization 🧵
Moso bamboo (phyllostachys edulis) seedling grown from seed with tap root
Moso bamboo forest in China, stock photo
2. Giant bamboo dwarfs trees. As grass, it grows 30 times (!) faster and can be harvested every year. Timber takes decades; too slow. Stunningly, no one in the west described the unique climate mitigation potential of bamboo yet. - Note the rhizome system:

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3. Climate relevant will be the use in millions of ha of plantations, just like other economically important crops. After two months on this, some significant progress: air pot kindly donated 1 m of their professional U system, so I can test it for bamboo.
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Read 39 tweets

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