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Paul Maidowski Profile picture
@_ppmv
Apr 5, 2022 • 27 tweets • 15 min read • Read on X
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Wow, thanks! @bberwyn pulls off a rare feat: not to repeat a pattern that most IPCC articles follow. He cuts to the heart.

With deep gratitude to IPCC colleagues for their difficult work, @ClimateHuman and I kindly call for an uprising and new economics.

insideclimatenews.org/news/05042022/…

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(not so) Brief notes for those who want to address root causes.

1. What pattern do most IPCC articles follow?

Try @marcsrhudson's 1990 game, you'll be amazed how well it works on climate!

Joke is on us - @bberwyn @insideclimate break the mold 🙏🤣

2. How to build economic systems that respect energy and resource constraints?

We need physically constrained, stock/flow-consistent economics. To start eg @nephologue @ProfSteveKeen @prof_grasselli's work.



agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…
rebuildingmacroeconomics.ac.uk/integrating-ma…
3. The IPCC can only summarize and amplify what the existing literature says.

Senior academics, this on you. Let's be real, time is up. Speak up in public, guide us and provide the models & resources we need to challenge power.

As @ProfBillMcGuire warns, billmcguire.substack.com/p/an-open-lett…
4. One function of the IPCC is to negotiate the "politically possible" (= agenda setting) & do science within these limits.

Dennis Meadows explains this by contrasting IPCC & Limits to Growth. LTG 1972 defined the physically possible, and was thus promptly ignored by economists. Image
5. Few pundits and politicians know that ALL IPCC scenarios (SSPs) assume infinite growth even if we lose habitat (RCP85). We'll all get private jets in hell, jests Tim.

This is how we blinded ourselves. Would be nice if economists and IPCC faced reality.

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6. GREAT, insightful exchange with Dennis Meadows, powered by @NJHagens' questions.

Also read Dana Meadows' famous essay on humility & how to spot high-leverage points in systems. 💚

We need these ideas to slow climate breakdown.


donellameadows.org/archives/lever…
7. Must-reads:

—@ProfSteveKeen on Nordhaus
—Sterman 2012, also on Nordhaus

If we criticize models, don't take it personally.

What can we learn from them for decisionmaking? (also, you can still hire me, I'm v nice off twitter ;)

tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…


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8. Could have said more - feel free to reach out, correct or add & share!

These are genuinely urgent scientific questions.

An honor to be quoted alongside Jim Skea @BillHareClimate @ClimateHuman, but recall that I merely integrate ideas shared by many here. Thx all!

End part 1
9. @MuellerTadzio expresses our despair at the madness of normality that propels us forward, largely unchallenged, to threaten life itself.

System dynamics, the field used in LTG - but not in the IPCC! -, can help us understand why all this is happening.

10. @JamesGDyke explains it in an IPCC context.

You see, some of us have been TERRIFIED of this for a over decade—but we're not even mainstream yet, nor in the IPCC.

Think this is hyperbole? Go deeper.

Thanks James and @bberwyn, such articles help!

theconversation.com/climate-change…
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11. Learning can be emotionally & cognitively taxing. Pace yourself.

—@NJHagens is great:



—Understanding grows from reading the original papers. Some take a sabbatical to learn. I did - painful, but needed.
read.realityblind.world/view/975731937…

sci-hub.se/10.1016/j.ecol…

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12. Kind souls often ask how climate policy makes sense.

Yes, it's not YOU. It doesn't.

Never prioritize climate hope over truth. Trust is earned; people smell BS a mile against the wind. Our superpower is honesty.

Now you see the context

@KevinClimate


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13. @SaraSchurmann's new book #KlartextKlima takes you on a personal journey of learning.

Worth sharing also because she kindly offers media critique from a professional perspective. How can we as societies and journalists learn and move forward?

14. Sorry for length and directness. We covered a lot - take with you what helps you.

Hope the references help some of you learn faster and earlier than I did. The past few years - and for many of you even decades - have been a hard journey.

Thanks for all your work. Way to go!
15. Now, back to organizing. This is about your & your kids' futures, about values you hold dear - empathy, freedoms, human rights, law, justice.

1. Anyone can join @JustStop_Oil @AufstandLastGen @ScientistRebel1.

2. Anyone can learn/work on the Arctic:
16. "The collapse of global ecosystems has begun. Only an emergency exit from fossil fuels and the exploitation of our planet can still stop it," says Nikolaus Froitzheim @ExtinctionR_DE @XRBerlin.

This is a call of hope to rethink & rebuild the economy.

@ExtinctionR_DE @XRBerlin 17. Here an overview. Recall: neoclassical economics can address non-climate questions, eg energy economics, but not climate. This explains its schizophrenic character. Even ecological economics struggles. A profound challenge - I hope many can take it on.
18. If anyone wants to support this work, my patreon is:

I won't spam you, twitter being enough for present purposes, and pass some $ on to folks I learn from, eg @jim27182 @ProfSteveKeen

Thanks everyone for your support! It helps to keep us going.💚🙏patreon.com/paulmaidowski
@jim27182 @ProfSteveKeen 19. How many police officers does it take to arrest four climate scientists? @ScientistRebel1 @ClimateHuman 🤣🙏

Brilliant. Make sure everyone knows their kids are at stake. As @camoranesi_jabo says, #scicomm is key. We won't win without. @AufstandLastGen
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@jim27182 @ProfSteveKeen @ScientistRebel1 @ClimateHuman @camoranesi_jabo @AufstandLastGen 20. Context here if you want follow up. Join @JustStop_Oil @ExtinctionR_DE or start your own networks if aesthetics or TOPC don't speak to you.

Just don't be naïve.

No one is coming to rescue you. Hiding in models that ignore reality is > irresponsible.

@jim27182 @ProfSteveKeen @ScientistRebel1 @ClimateHuman @camoranesi_jabo @AufstandLastGen @JustStop_Oil @ExtinctionR_DE 21. Forgot to mention @MuellerTadzio as a good soul from whom I learn. To support:

If you see beyond the bubble, you know that the brighter police officers know as well as do we where things are heading. Climate change is changing everything. Think ahead.
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@bberwyn @ClimateHuman I wonder why climate scientists don't see it. IPCC models generate the overshoot-and-collapse dynamics of Limits to Growth. The only difference is they assume infinite growth. @bberwyn's article added as background. @ProfBillMcGuire @ProfSteveKeen @IPCC_CH insideclimatenews.org/news/05042022/…

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@jim27182 @ProfSteveKeen @ScientistRebel1 @ClimateHuman @camoranesi_jabo @AufstandLastGen @JustStop_Oil @ExtinctionR_DE @MuellerTadzio 22. Worth adding an update one year later: As I often pointed out, @DrJamesEHansen's prescient warnings of the past 15 years were silenced by the mainstream (his words: censored). Face reality, friends.

Similarly, @RealTadzioM's old account was suspended.



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@jim27182 @ProfSteveKeen @ScientistRebel1 @ClimateHuman @camoranesi_jabo @AufstandLastGen @JustStop_Oil @ExtinctionR_DE @MuellerTadzio @DrJamesEHansen @RealTadzioM 23. Worthy addition to this climate & IPCC review thread. As we warned for 5+ years, notably @dwallacewells in his famous essay. "Fatally flawed" is putting it kindly. Climate economists, anyone of you care to develop better models? theintercept.com/2023/10/29/wil…

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@jim27182 @ProfSteveKeen @ScientistRebel1 @ClimateHuman @camoranesi_jabo @AufstandLastGen @JustStop_Oil @ExtinctionR_DE @MuellerTadzio @DrJamesEHansen @RealTadzioM @dwallacewells I have no fancy professorship in Yale, so when we say this no one listens, but this was long obvious to anyone with academic training in relevant fields. - "Fate of humanity" may be overpromising but we certainly cannot have rational policy without profound failure analysis here. Image
@jim27182 @ProfSteveKeen @ScientistRebel1 @ClimateHuman @camoranesi_jabo @AufstandLastGen @JustStop_Oil @ExtinctionR_DE @MuellerTadzio @DrJamesEHansen @RealTadzioM @dwallacewells What @cketchamwild gets wrong: the deluded idea of 'climate damages' in neoclassical (mainstream) economics, incl. in the IPCC, isn't "10% loss from current world GDP" but 10% from a future fantastical world economy an order of magnitude larger than today. theintercept.com/2023/10/29/wil…
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More from @_ppmv

Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Apr 8
Hybrid immunity was invented in 2021 to sell the idea of SARS-CoV-2 infections as a good. There is no literature pre 2021. The idea to infect the global population with a SARS virus, including all 2 billion children aged 14 yo and younger, didn't exist. scholar.google.com/scholar?q=%22h…


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Arijit documented this too. If you read the papers, it's a false analogy and poor reasoning.
You can repeat the same with "immune debt" or "immunity debt", the original flawed idea invented by French pediatrician Cohen in 2021, setting off the whole strain of argument. An incredibly effective PR campaign, less good science.
scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&…


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Read 6 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Mar 11
1. Europe imports all its bamboo. Plantations on fallow land are one good option to slow climate breakdown and create sustainable jobs. Bamboo is incredibly fast and, unlike timber, active management improves climate and ecological outcomes. Merits focus, baustoff-partner.de/d/moso-reiche-…

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SARS-CoV-2 wasn't the last disruption to import based businesses. Our basic climate policy warning for seven years now. One of the reasons I'd encourage everyone to look into starting to grow Moso bamboo (phyllostachys edulis) or other suitable species in Southern Europe as well. Image
3. Terrestrial mammals and C4 grasses evolved and adapted below a threshold of 550 ppm. Earth will cross it within the lifetime of kids born today. - Bamboo is our most efficient C3 plant. Cenozoic CO2 proxy (CENCO2PIP) Consortium☝️ science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…



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Read 24 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Feb 26
You need a scale for the collapse of 'doomsday' glacier Thwaites. Compare the past two years: iceberg B22a broke off the glacier in 2002 and gained legs in 2023, freeing Thwaites to flow into the sea over the coming years: here it is today—that's 3,000 km2 worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-2442135.48…


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3600 square kilometers, for the mathematicians here Image
What Bob says
Read 9 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jan 14
Excellent paper @ejustin46 found. Only one major problem
Granted, few if any papers so far explain the Orf8 gene in beta-CoVs but never mind, that’s why you have twitter
The real problem: you cannot analyze SARS-CoV-2 OR compare it to HIV-1 without accounting for reinfections, current policy worldwide because no one bothers to plan for stopping them, ie #ZeroCovid, just as we have #ZeroHIV policy. Absurd.
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Read 4 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jan 9
SARS-CoV should be compared to HIV. They are the two best researched viruses in history. "Compare and contrast X and Y" is about the most common essay question in middle school language classes worldwide; people who want to prevent this have ill (no dad joke intended) intentions.
As AJ says, different opinions are perfectly valid here as long as people read carefully. It will get very complex. This is why as political scientist, to me learning from the policy & social parallels to the HIV/AIDS pandemic is paramount. Compare away,
The pre-ART HIV era is before me, so I learn from books and experiences. The central lesson of #UUU (#UequalsU) is: Empower the public. Help them make informed decisions.

It REQUIRES clear language as we speak, and public debate.

Good early thread by me.
Read 6 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jan 7
Don’t use Covid/LC. The real term in the literature since 2003 has been SARS survivors. It’s a SARS virus, so this require no rocket scientist, a Google search suffices. Wild how you minimize your own condition out of ignorance, friends. Worst social movement strategy I’ve seen.
Why bad? If you define LongCovid narrowly as the most extreme forms of ME/CFS or whatever, you minimize the 200+ symptoms recognized by WHO, marginalize all the hundreds of millions living with chronic infection, and slow public recognition, R&D & prevention. All around failing.
Just attended a toddler's birthday party: EVERY family reports kids constantly sick this winter, some severe/hospitalized, plus parents out, some month-long Covid + X infections. - As expected. - None of them understand this virus, thanks to ☝️ failing Covid advocacy and policy.
Read 5 tweets

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