Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 5 8 tweets 3 min read
This is a Rail logistics & Drone 🧵thread.

Much is being made of the arrival of the US Switchblade drones and the ability of the 600 model to reach 50 miles to kill tanks & artillery.

That isn't how you beat the Russian Army
1/
You don't beat the Russian Army in a tank/artillery attritional fight. Ukraine in particular does not have the depth of forces to grind on Russia tank to tank, MLRS versus MLRS.

Ukraine has shown you stop the Russian Army by killing its trucks.

2/
To kill a dug in a Russian Army in Donbas, you have to destroy its trains.

Take a look at the Donbas area in this railway map.
3/
The Donbas railways are why the Russian Army is withdrawing from the North and moving to the East & South of Ukraine.

Russia cannot support its Army's artillery ammo needs without them.
4/
A Switchblade 600 with a Javelin warhead is powerful enough to destroy the control section of a rail engine or can be flown into the forward train wheel assembly, blowing it to h--l and causing the derailment of a moving engine.

5/
railwayage.com/mechanical/loc…
A Switchblade 600 detonating on the roof over a Russian engine's Diesel-electric power pack will put a 2-4cm dia. hole about 5-feet long into it

If that hole cuts into the transmission or the alternator. The spontaneous mechanical self-disassembly will explode like a bomb.
6/
Russian air defenses simply cannot stop a single well operated Switchblade 600, let alone a swarm of them.

A Ukrainian Switchblade 600 railway interdiction campaign...

(WW2 Operation Strangle photo)
7/
...will give Ukraine artillery fire superiority in the Donbas by virtue of it's artillery will have more ammunition than Russia's.

The Switchblade 600 will turn the artillery ammunition rich Donbas into the same kind of 'logistical desert' the 35th CAA faced NW of Kyiv.

8/End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Apr 5
This is the price the US DoD & military services are paying for the it's Flag rank officers who never "fix our computers."

1/
As a reminder of the current DoD civilian senior appointed political & Flag Rank officers, this is the problem you leadership failed to own.

2/
americanmilitarynews.com/2022/02/open-l…
Read 4 tweets
Apr 4
This is a near term, course of the Ukrainian War, prediction thread🧵

Russian air forces at Melitopol are now in AFU long range rocket artillery attack range via BM-30 Smersh & Toshka-U now on the north shore of the Dneiper.
1/
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BM-30_Sme…
The major Ukrainian airbase at Melitopol was the former hub for Ukrainian Il-76MD CANDID operations.

It is now used as a FOB for Russian helos & Su-25's.

The AFU is now making public comparisons to the RuAF experience with Smersh & Toshka-U at Chornobaivka AB near Kherson.
2/
Now the predictions.

Right now Ukrainian Aerorozvidka ATV & Drone teams & a lot of ATGM's are being infiltrated across the Dnieper river at night to besiege Kherson & scout Melitopol with Ukrainian SF stay behind teams & Territorial defense forces.
3/
Read 12 tweets
Apr 4
Short EW 🧵

Most people have missed how badly the loss of this Russian AF plane to Ukraine near Izium is.

The right wing tip had an electronic warfare self protection pod (EWSP) and it came down intact enough for a good technical analysis.

1/
It might be either a SAP-518 or KNIRTI L005 Sorbtsiya wingtip pod.

2/
For reference, this is a Su-34 FULLBACK with KNIRTI SAP14 and two wing tip SAP518 DRFM jamming pods

3/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 3
This is a really nice history snapshot thread on the Battle of Kyiv that has been making the rounds.

I have a few minor objections to it based on what is missing.

Ukrainian leadership & Russian corruption thread🧵

1/
The 1st missing piece is the Pres. Zelensky statement to the West "I need ammunition, not a ride."

"The moral is to the physical what ten is to one"
-- Napoléon Bonaparte of France

2/
This political act that set the table for the defeat of the Russian VDV outside Kyiv.

It prepared the Ukrainian Army for a fight to the death at Kyiv and in a sentance gave the Ukrainian people a rallying cry.

3/
Read 13 tweets
Apr 2
It is evident today that the only Neo-Nazis in Ukraine wear Russian Army uniforms

#BuchaMassacre is only the beginning

As Russian positions are over run. The extent of Putin's plans to "Suppress the Ukrainian people" will show up as the Ukrainian bodies on his FSB kill lists
1/
The Biden Administration "De-Escalation Faction" is now politically dead and damned.

The coming days will find multiple #BuchaMassacre because that is the way Russian "Special Operations" work.

2/
Spreaker Pelosi cannot stop & Senate Majority Leader Schumer won't even try to get in the way of a bi-partisan Congressional resolution demanding the Biden Administration send NATO & surplus US fighters to Ukraine.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Apr 2
This tweet reinforces something I said earlier about Russian MLRS reload vehicle "Western Intelligence shiny things" & the reality of Russian Army logistics.

Something like 90% of the RuAF MLRS rocket reload production, storage & transportation supply chain looks like this
1/
Western intelligence inability to understand the reality of manual labor, because of the overwhelming university graduate class based world view, left it unable to see the Russian Army as it really was.

There is a lot of political hay to be made by Congressmen & Senators
2/
...asking the Defense Department & the civilian intelligence agencies about that in public testimony before a Joint House-Senate committee on the failures of the Ukraine War like the one on the CIA assassination program.

3/
Read 5 tweets

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