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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Apr 5, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
This is the price the US DoD & military services are paying for the it's Flag rank officers who never "fix our computers."

1/
As a reminder of the current DoD civilian senior appointed political & Flag Rank officers, this is the problem you leadership failed to own.

2/
 americanmilitarynews.com/2022/02/open-l… Image
Which surfaced on Twitter here:

3/
The DoD & service senior leaders failed to own the 'computer problem' for decades.

Now that failure owns them and more importantly the national security of the USA from nuclear FOBS sneak attacks.

Be the leaders you are supposed to be and "Fix the D--ned computers."

4/End Image

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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 14
Iran had hard limits in the number of competent launch crews.

The shut down and reopening of Iranian air space was likely Iran discovering how badly their planning was dancing with Miss Rosey Scenario as far as time on target drone & missile launches were concerned.

1/
The additional 24 to 36 hours was the competent IRGC crews checking the work of the noobs and proxies for this strike in progress.

Senator Rubio was briefed on all the additional drone launch sites that radio traffic associated with the competent crews revealed.

2/
The intelligence on this seems to have gone down something like R V Jones book 'Secret Wars" where he described chasing down V-1 testing sites by locating the two best Nazi radar tracking units with SIGINT and ELINT in 1943.

WW2 military history is always relevant.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 7
English Translation:

"Today, the RussiaNoContext channel published a video from the phone of the Russian military, who filmed the first consequences after the explosion of the Kakhovskaya HPP and rejoiced at this act of ecocide against Ukraine.

1/
We will remind that the terrorist attack on the Kakhovskaya HPP was carried out by the Russian occupying forces, the military of the Russian Federation from the 205th Infantry Brigade, around 2:50 a.m. on June 6, 2023.

2/
As a result of this war crime, a large-scale ecological disaster occurred."

Short form:

No Ukrainian missile was involved in the destruction of the Kakhovskaya HPP.

Russia did it.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 24
Regarding this:

>>no significant damage to the ships is visible.

Fragmentation damage is rarely visible from satellite photos.

The photo intelligence analysts in WW2 hated the use of aerial fragmentation munitions for exactly that reason.

Limits of photo BDA🧵
1/
Aerial bomb fragmentation damage could only be really be captured immediately after detonation...

2/ Image
...or on ground that allows high contrast fragment impact marks.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 23
We are seeing a lot of posts and articles on X about Ukraine's OWA drone strategic bombing campaign against Russian refineries .

People, including Jake Sullivan over at the Biden Adm. NSC think this is about AFU cutting off Russian oil.

They're wrong. It's about explosives.
1/
The Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries are less about POL than reduction of nitrogen,ammonia and methanol feed stocks for Russian explosives and propellants for it's artillery and missile production.

2/
Ukrainian OWA drones are engaged in strategic counter battery fire against the Russian artillery supply chain providing the explosive fillings & propellent for shells, rockets and missiles.

[This also has knock on effects for Russian fertilizer production.]

3/
Image
Image
Read 19 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 22
James Dunnigan's Strategypage dot com site has a new piece up titled:

"Russia: Can Russia Continue the War After 2024?"


Russian Lanchester Square collapse indicators🧵

1/strategypage.com/qnd/russia/art…
"March 20, 2024: Hard limits are appearing on Russia’s ability to continue the Ukraine war. It has begun running out of tube artillery (as opposed to rocket artillery) and light armored fighting vehicles (AFVs). The artillery shortage is because tube artillery barrels are
...wearing out, while the light AFV shortage is because so many have been lost in combat."

and later in the article:

"It is highly likely, given Russian corruption and maintenance standards, that only about 3,000 of the nominally available 4,000 pieces of 122mm artillery

2/
Read 10 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 22
Regarding the Biden Administration "Controlled leak" in the FT.

Russia has contributed only about 8% of global refined fuel exports at max,per the CIA.

When Russia chooses to export, which it hasn't since February 2024.

1/5
 cia.gov/the-world-fact…
The Jake Sullivan run Biden Adm. NSC's whole FT argument that Ukraine should stop plinking Russian refineries to prevent "oil market instability" is utter nonsense.

The Iranian sponsored Houthi blockade of the Suez has a much much larger "oil market instability" impact.

2/5
Biden won't do anything effective regarding Iran.

Meanwhile the Biden Adm. attempt to restrain Ukrainian refinery strikes is actually doing great damage to American foreign policy credibility in Eastern Europe and particularly in the Baltics.

3/5
 pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/…
Read 6 tweets

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