Thread by @AliVaez

Tomorrow marks 1 year since the first round of #ViennaTalks kicked off.

A state of play on where we've been, where we are, and where we might be going in this very peculiar exercise.🧵

https://twitter.com/enriquemora_/status/1379443189703131139

2| It was clear from the outset that despite shared goal of reviving JCPOA, path would be anything but easy. To destroy is easier than to rebuild, & even having a baseline text already available still required a way for both sides to resume commitments under new realities.

3| Negotiators set up working groups on sanctions relief and nuclear rollback, with a third on sequencing added later. Through June - the final round involving Rouhani's team - significant progress was made before the Iranian electoral calendar led to 5-month hiatus.

4| This was the most significant delay in the process, but not the only one. On US side, Biden team had internal deliberations on how to proceed upon taking office; more recently (exactly a month ago) Russian ask for sanx cordon sanitaire prompted a pause in the multiparty talks.

5| The good news is that technical elements of the 27-page deal are all but finalized, & have been for some time. While some important elements are still in play, main remaining disagreement - IRGC FTO - is a political and bilateral US/IRI issue.
washingtonpost.com/national-secur…

6| The media tent is no longer standing outside Coburg, but that doesn't mean things are on hold. EU continues to convey proposals b/w Tehran & Washington to see if a workable formula can be found on an issue laden w symbolism & political sensitivities.

https://twitter.com/StLiechtenstein/status/1509527114910867462?s=20&t=a20NTmuAniU2LBWVITw7Rg

7| Whether they can square this final circle remains to be seen, but if they do things could fall into place quickly. Reality is that continued delays serve neither side's interests: nuclear program expands, sanctions relief remain elusive, and external factors can intrude.

8| Funnily enough, at the same point in the Trump administration the U.S. was still in the JCPOA and had held more direct conversations with the Iranians via the Joint Commission. Desire for a volte-face in policy doesn't always mean it will happen or happen quickly.

9|9 In sum, we're neither on the brink of an imminent breakthrough, nor is it necessarily doom and gloom. The U.S. and Europeans, and certainly the Iranians, all have Plan Bs percolating.

But all know that Plan A remains preferable, if difficult, to see through to conclusion.