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Apr 5 • 2 tweets • 1 min read
The 30yr fixed mortgage rate just passed 5% for the 1st time since '11. Thus, w/ the avg. home price at $511K today, vs. $408K last yr, & the 30yr fixed mortage rate at 5.02% today vs. 3.32% a yr ago, the avg. cost of a mortage is $2,138/month now vs. $1,129a yr ago (+101%). WOW!
Using a mortgage calculator, the numbers I noted are actually $2.2K now for a mortgage vs. $1.4K a year ago (i.e., +57.1% YoY). Sorry for error here. Conclusion stands. smartasset.com/mortgage/mortg…

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More from @GordonJohnson19

Gordon Johnson Profile picture
Apr 5
@MartinViecha question. It seems the entire TSLA EU backlog has literally disappeared, overnight, even though the Shanghai plant is now shut indefinitely. That is, one can get a MY in across virtually all EU countries in May (vs. Aug. yesterday), which means w/ shipping times,...
... there is no backlog left. Barring the change in your definition of a delivery in 1Q22 meaning, using the prior definition, you actually produced more cars than you sold, how can the EU backlog disappear overnight? Is the answer your China sales numbers have fallen through...
... the floor and, thus, you have excess capacity, suddenly, as... using the "definition" of deliveries in each quarterly delivery/production report dating back to 2Q17, you actually made more cars than you sold in 1Q22? Or, is the answer you're not sold out as many claim, and...
Read 4 tweets
Gordon Johnson Profile picture
Apr 3
Hey @MartinViecha, can you help us understand why you took this language out of your 1Q22 delivery disclosure: "we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct"? Are you now including cars as delivered that haven't been...
... transferred, and/or don't have proper paperwork? Why is that language in prior delivery report disclosures, BUT NOT in your 1Q22 delivery disclosure? @DivesTech, @p_ferragu, @TroyTeslike, @GerberKawasaki... can you help out here? IR has never answered a GLJ Research question.
The disclosure that TSLA has omitted in 1Q22 noted above has been in every delivery report dating back to 2Q17's 7/7/17 disclosure. So this is the first time that language has been omitted in ~5yrs. Can you tell us what the equivalent deliveries are including that disclosure?...
Read 4 tweets
Gordon Johnson Profile picture
Apr 3
1/5 The current run-rate is a little over 300k/quarter = a hair over 1M/year.

10 years = 40 quarters.

If they sell 100k/quarter more each quarter than the previous quarter for each of the next 40 quarters, in 40 quarters (10 years) they're selling 40 x 100k = 4M/quarter more...
2/5... than today = 16M/year.

So continual sequential quarterly growth of 100K gets them to around 17M in 10 years. Current sequential growth is only averaging, what, around 30K? That would get them to around 30k x 40 = 1.2M/quarter more in 10 years = 4.8M plus the current...
3/5... 1.2M = 6M year (and would require 8 more factories at 500K each). (Of course there's no way they'll have demand for 6M/year without MANY more models.) And 6M/year is the size of GM, with its $62B market cap. Take that 10 years from now and discount it back at 15% a...
Read 6 tweets
Gordon Johnson Profile picture
Apr 3
Wrong again (sequential growth is ALL that matters for growth stocks; & EVERYONE had supply chain issues, many likely worse than TSLA's in Q1). Thus, given, NIO saw its 1Q22 QoQ China sales grow by +2.9%, and BYD - who sells more BEVs in China than TSLA - saw its QoQ sale of...
... EVs in China grow +5.1%, which, compares to TSLA's QoQ growth of just +0.5%, it's clear that TSLA is losing both market share & momentum. Yet, TSLA is valued at more than the next 20 automakers combined; further, there are a #'r of EV makers delivering >10K EVs/month in...
... China now. Also, as you are likely aware, the Q1 COVID shutdowns had very little impact on TSLA's 1Q22 deliveries. Lastly, again, ALL automakers were hit with supply chain issues (this was not specific to TSLA). TSLA has much more capacity in Shanghai in 1Q22 vs. 1Q21; so,...
Read 4 tweets
Gordon Johnson Profile picture
Jan 26
1/20 A thread on the current destructive policies of the Fed/@neelkashkari, and why those suggesting the Fed MUST CONTINUE to support sky-high stock prices via MORE monetary stimulus are likely leading ALL OF US to financial ruin and endangering the dollar's reserve currency...
2/20... status (a catastrophic risk to the US). So, in response to the "black hole" that was the onset of COVID in the spring of 2020, & the related economic unknowns, the Fed purchased more treasury securities in just the first 6 weeks of the COVID downturn than we did over...
3/20... the entire 2009-2018 (i.e., global financial crisis) period. And, admittedly, while this was aggressive, this action by the Fed was completely understandable. Yet, and what set the COVID downturn apart from others was, while it took retail sales 10yrs to get back to...
Read 20 tweets
Gordon Johnson Profile picture
Jan 9
1/14 @MartinViecha can you help me out with something? That is, using reported data and ests. from @TroyTeslike, its seems the 4Q21 deliveries you reported have an unexplained 34.781K surplus. That is, for your just-reported 4Q21 deliveries, using the following...
2/14... methodology: (a) the experian numbers for TSLA's sales by month in the USA + (b) @TroyTeslike's numbers for RoW and Canada + (c) the actual reported numbers for China and the EU, TSLA's reported deliveries in 2Q21 and 3Q21 were 11.2K and 8.4K higher, respectively, than...
3/14... the above methology implied (well within the margin of error for Troy's numbers). Yet, in 4Q21, applying the SAME methodology, TSLA's reported deliveires, ASSUMING China is 70.5K in Dec. (which could be WRONG - source: ), were 34.781K higher than...
Read 14 tweets

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