1/7 To those who say $TSLA is the "tech leader", a couple of hard facts (we know the stock trades 🦄/🌈, but facts remain important):

- Batteries: Despite @elonmusk’s claims at battery day that $TSLA’s 4680 cells would show +30% improvement () vs...drive.com.au/news/tesla-bat… 2/7... his current generation (Panasonic) cells, according to @TroyTeslike the energy density of $TSLA’s much touted 4680 battery pack is ACTUALLY LOWER than that of the older 18650 Panasonic cells (meaning $TSLA has achieved less than zero progress in battery development);

1/25 Why the evidence shows the U.S. @federalreserve doesn't have a serious theory on inflation, and instead seems focused only on inflating financial assets, benefitting the rich (i.e., the top 10%) to the detriment of most of our fellow Americans (the bottom 90%) a 🧵 2/25 The @federalreserve has a history of theories, which they have abandoned as soon as there was risk to rich people. What do we mean? Well, previously they've said they were for flexible average inflation targeting; that is, when inflation was at 1.7%, they said they'd...

1/8 Can someone who's a forensic accountant and/or works/worked at the @SECGov/@PwC help us understand, as it relates to $TSLA's just-reported 3Q24 figures, the answers to the following questions: 2/8 Where is $TSLA currently building a plant with a value wroth 75.1% of all of its existing land/equipment when it separately itemizes AI infrastructure spend of $3.693bn, $2.183bn of which was spent in 3Q24 alone... and $TSLA is not actively building a new auto plant?

1/4 While Wall Street folks like @DivesTech, @munster_gene, etc. are applauding the surge in $TSLA's margins, exclaiming how $TSLA is making cars more efficiently, that could not be further from the ACTUAL truth. That is, in addition to taking an incremental $326mn in FSD... 2/4... revs in Q3 as per the 10Q (associated w/ the Cybertruck/"ASS"), $TSLA reported $739mn in ZEV credits, which was +$203mn above the Cons' est. of $536mn, & +$339mn above the buy-side est. of ~$400mn. Stated differently, TSLA booked an extra ~$665mn of 100% margin...

1/16 Why $TSLA's (so called) "Cybercab" day, at 10:00pm EST tomorrow, will (likely) be a disappointment (and potentially a spectacular one) a 🧵. 2/16 So, first, we'll note, right ahead of this "major event": (a) $TSLA's CIO, Nagesh Saldi (who reported directly to E. Musk, and built $TSLA's data centers in TX/NY), quit 5 days ahead of "Cybercab day", (b) Daniel Ho (who reported directly to E. Musk, and served as Head...

1/7 Hey @NHTSAgov and @SECGov quick question. So... $TSLA is having a "Robotaxi Day" event on 10/10/24, once again on the set of a Hollywood Studio, to talk about its FSD technology. Recall that $TSLA did something similar when it sold then investors on the company buying $SCTY. 2/7 That is, $TSLA showed fake solar shingles (that never went into production) on the set of a fake house, which it used to convince $TSLA investors to dilute themselves to buy @elonmusk's cousin's company, $SCTY (.). So,...gotmusked.com/content/solarc…

1/12 Why $TSLA will (likely) never return to its immediate-post COVID glory days a 🧵.

https://twitter.com/TheDeMontigny/status/1828657877005062588

2/12 In short, COVID caused a once-in-a-lifetime auto parts shortage (), which limited semi-auto-car chips, the world over… temporarily. And, while other automakers weren’t willing to bypass the decades-long dynamic of testing new chips...sensiblemicro.com/blog/supply-ch…

1/6 A bit of clarification on this thread for the smart options guys. So, two days ago, of the 20 options chains displayed in the figure below, ~15 of them had a put/call ratio of >1.0x. So, the question is, WHO is buying puts in a stock going parabolically higher, DAILY?

https://twitter.com/GordonJohnson19/status/1810730188411654149

2/6 Taking a step back, keep in mind that the broker/bank simply matches counterparties (i.e., acts as an intermediary), or the put buyers vs. the put sellers. Thus, when the put/call ratios get out of balance, on large volume nonetheless, the brokers, often, actually BUY the...

1/12 Why $TSLA's stock is going up, daily, a thread. So, around the time $TSLA reported deliveries, the ratio of puts vs. call options being purchased increased materially. Don't believe me? Simply go to , load up $TSLA's ticker, and click on put/call...barcharts.com 2/12... ratio to get the history. In fact, as detailed below, for much of the options chain with the largest total amount outstanding, the put/call ratio is close to 1.0, and in some cases over 1.0. So what you ask? Well, for a stock that keeps going higher daily, why...

1/9 So what's a spiking SOFR rate mean? Well, we saw something similar in 2019, & it was caused by a combination of: (1) qtrly corporate tax payments that were due Sep. 16, which were withdrawn from bank & money market mutual fund ("MMF") accounts that went to the Treasury's... 2/9... account at the Fed (i.e., like we JUST SAW 6/15/24), and (2) a large amount of Treasury auctions (LIKE WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW), which were draining large amounts of reserves from the banking system. Stated differently, in the repo market, there were more Treasury...

1/17 The @federalreserve's ONLY mandate at present, using the evidence, is to print money out of thin air to thwart ANY dysfunction in the US Treasury market (which is VERY inflationary) a 🧵. 2/17 While the Fed acts like they care about inflation, the tricks they've used, in conjunction with @SecYellen, to counter any sig. rise in UST yields, shows they care NOTHING about inflation, and, rather, only focus on fighting ANY disfunction in the US Treasury markets.

1/8 $TSLA's driverless FSD technology HAS NOT BEEN APPROVED IN CHINA (that requires a completely different license which $TSLA did not get). All those saying otherwise (which is nearly everyone) are completely wrong. Why? Well, TSLA will likely… 2/8... see NO rev from any of what was approved in China today (i.e., a few driver assist features), inside of China because all of TSLA’s peers offer the same tech, RIGHT NOW, FOR FREE (i.e., Chinese consumers are not going to pay TSLA for something...

1/9 Are you actively engaging in cognitive dissonance, @munster_gene, or have you morphed into a cheerleader for $TSLA, devoid of the ability to remember what was said, A LITTLE MORE THAN A YEAR AGO, at $TSLA's 3/1/23 investor day a 🧵.

https://twitter.com/munster_gene/status/1782887142382874963

2/9 So, first, @munster_gene, I'll remind you that at $TSLA's 3/1/23 investor day, @elonmusk and $TSLA's engineers claimed they discovered a new car manf. process that would reduce the cost to make an EV by 50%, while also reducing factory space required to do it by 40%.

1/10 @munster_gene... serious question... do you have no shame a 🧵. 2/10 First off, in this video, using @elonmusk's own words... since 2014... @elonmusk has promised full autonomy "one month away" on highways (he's STILL NOT THERE TODAY); and, in 2018, he began promising full autonomy better than a human "next year"... twitter.com/messages/media…

1/6 The Fed is re-pivoting. Why? Well, as @GLJ_Research has said time and time again, the current @federalreserve policy is WAY TOO LOOSE. Why? Well, while the Fed continues to use the Laubach-Williams Model for its nominal neutral rate of 2.88% (which... 2/6... it subtracts from its Effective Fed Funds Rate [“EFFR”] to gauge “restrictiveness”), the Richmond Fed’s Lubik-Matthes model pegs the nominal neutral rate of inflation at 4.17% today (which, ironically, was the Fed’s est. for...

1/14 Here's some thoughts (from my friend @StanphylCap) debunking the "$TSLA is more than a car company thesis" a 🧵(I HIGHLY encourage you to read this, with the accompanying links, VERY CLOSELY). 2/14 First, on $TSLA as an "AI" company, I'll remind you that the three top leaders of that team at $TSLA left the company in Oct. 2023 (that does not infuse confidence in their efforts here). The, on chargers, $TSLA is now opening its U.S. charging stations to cars...

1/25 Question @MaryGPowell and $RUN regarding your ongoing use of a 6% discount rate to value your owned assets (the value of which you take a 30% tax credit on) a 🧵. 2/25 Really, my question is, after looking at your most recent capital raise, why are you using a 20% cost of capital to fund assets that earn 6%, and how is this economically feasible🤨? Is @Sunrun's secret that it loses money on every solar system, but makes it up in volume🤔?

1/11 Why are the Dems/@POTUS getting crushed in polling, Biden's approval rating abysmal, and things set to actually get worse through 2024 should the @federalreserve/@SecYellen not be reined in a 🧵. 2/11 So, as my friend @INArteCarloDoss pointed out a long time ago, the real problem w/ inflation is the statistical noise that has taken over. That is, there's a HUGE disconnect between the USELESS inflation measures the intelligentsia debate, daily, such as "core",...

1/4 For all of those asking why #Bitcoin and other memes, alt coins, etc. are skyrocketing higher📈, the @federalreserve is currently doing de facto QE by letting the excess 💸 they printed 2020-21 that was sitting dormant in the RRP account to buy @SecYellen's bonds. Yes,... 2/4... you heard that right. That is, with inflation currently inflecting higher💥, the Fed is throwing proverbial gasoline ⛽️on the inflation fire 🔥by letting the reckless excesses it printed 2020-21 to flow into private hands. Why? No idea. We're just...

1/7 Why this tweet by someone w/ >500K followers is (very) misleading - i.e., rather intentional, or not, a 🧵.

https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1761752912190128357

2/7 You can't look at the Fed's bal. sheet in isolation. You have to look at total US liquidity, or: Fed Bal. Sheet - TGA - RRP = total US liquidity (or private money in the commercial banking system). And, when looking at this metric, due to the massive drain in the...

1/4 There isn't weakness in labor markets. In fact, the LABOR MARKET IS QUITE STRONG, historically, and we are NO WHERE NEAR the danger zone. In fact, the replacement rate of jobs in the US economy is 50K-80K/month, vs. non-farm payrolls currently trending at 350K-400K/month.

https://twitter.com/quakers07/status/1760299841387737471

2/4 Translation? It's ABSOLUTLEY absurd to be talking about rate cuts, given: (a) WE HAVEN'T COME ANYWHERE NEAR the replacement rate of jobs in the US economy of 50K-80K/month, & (b) a number of inflation measures (ISM + NFIB + PPI + "core" CPI + etc.) are inflecting higher.