1/8 $TSLA's driverless FSD technology HAS NOT BEEN APPROVED IN CHINA (that requires a completely different license which $TSLA did not get). All those saying otherwise (which is nearly everyone) are completely wrong. Why? Well, TSLA will likely… 2/8... see NO rev from any of what was approved in China today (i.e., a few driver assist features), inside of China because all of TSLA’s peers offer the same tech, RIGHT NOW, FOR FREE (i.e., Chinese consumers are not going to pay TSLA for something...

1/9 Are you actively engaging in cognitive dissonance, @munster_gene, or have you morphed into a cheerleader for $TSLA, devoid of the ability to remember what was said, A LITTLE MORE THAN A YEAR AGO, at $TSLA's 3/1/23 investor day a 🧵.

https://twitter.com/munster_gene/status/1782887142382874963

2/9 So, first, @munster_gene, I'll remind you that at $TSLA's 3/1/23 investor day, @elonmusk and $TSLA's engineers claimed they discovered a new car manf. process that would reduce the cost to make an EV by 50%, while also reducing factory space required to do it by 40%.

1/10 @munster_gene... serious question... do you have no shame a 🧵. 2/10 First off, in this video, using @elonmusk's own words... since 2014... @elonmusk has promised full autonomy "one month away" on highways (he's STILL NOT THERE TODAY); and, in 2018, he began promising full autonomy better than a human "next year"... twitter.com/messages/media…

1/6 The Fed is re-pivoting. Why? Well, as @GLJ_Research has said time and time again, the current @federalreserve policy is WAY TOO LOOSE. Why? Well, while the Fed continues to use the Laubach-Williams Model for its nominal neutral rate of 2.88% (which... 2/6... it subtracts from its Effective Fed Funds Rate [“EFFR”] to gauge “restrictiveness”), the Richmond Fed’s Lubik-Matthes model pegs the nominal neutral rate of inflation at 4.17% today (which, ironically, was the Fed’s est. for...

1/14 Here's some thoughts (from my friend @StanphylCap) debunking the "$TSLA is more than a car company thesis" a 🧵(I HIGHLY encourage you to read this, with the accompanying links, VERY CLOSELY). 2/14 First, on $TSLA as an "AI" company, I'll remind you that the three top leaders of that team at $TSLA left the company in Oct. 2023 (that does not infuse confidence in their efforts here). The, on chargers, $TSLA is now opening its U.S. charging stations to cars...

1/25 Question @MaryGPowell and $RUN regarding your ongoing use of a 6% discount rate to value your owned assets (the value of which you take a 30% tax credit on) a 🧵. 2/25 Really, my question is, after looking at your most recent capital raise, why are you using a 20% cost of capital to fund assets that earn 6%, and how is this economically feasible🤨? Is @Sunrun's secret that it loses money on every solar system, but makes it up in volume🤔?

1/11 Why are the Dems/@POTUS getting crushed in polling, Biden's approval rating abysmal, and things set to actually get worse through 2024 should the @federalreserve/@SecYellen not be reined in a 🧵. 2/11 So, as my friend @INArteCarloDoss pointed out a long time ago, the real problem w/ inflation is the statistical noise that has taken over. That is, there's a HUGE disconnect between the USELESS inflation measures the intelligentsia debate, daily, such as "core",...

1/4 For all of those asking why #Bitcoin and other memes, alt coins, etc. are skyrocketing higher📈, the @federalreserve is currently doing de facto QE by letting the excess 💸 they printed 2020-21 that was sitting dormant in the RRP account to buy @SecYellen's bonds. Yes,... 2/4... you heard that right. That is, with inflation currently inflecting higher💥, the Fed is throwing proverbial gasoline ⛽️on the inflation fire 🔥by letting the reckless excesses it printed 2020-21 to flow into private hands. Why? No idea. We're just...

1/7 Why this tweet by someone w/ >500K followers is (very) misleading - i.e., rather intentional, or not, a 🧵.

https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1761752912190128357

2/7 You can't look at the Fed's bal. sheet in isolation. You have to look at total US liquidity, or: Fed Bal. Sheet - TGA - RRP = total US liquidity (or private money in the commercial banking system). And, when looking at this metric, due to the massive drain in the...

1/4 There isn't weakness in labor markets. In fact, the LABOR MARKET IS QUITE STRONG, historically, and we are NO WHERE NEAR the danger zone. In fact, the replacement rate of jobs in the US economy is 50K-80K/month, vs. non-farm payrolls currently trending at 350K-400K/month.

https://twitter.com/quakers07/status/1760299841387737471

2/4 Translation? It's ABSOLUTLEY absurd to be talking about rate cuts, given: (a) WE HAVEN'T COME ANYWHERE NEAR the replacement rate of jobs in the US economy of 50K-80K/month, & (b) a number of inflation measures (ISM + NFIB + PPI + "core" CPI + etc.) are inflecting higher.

1/2 Why does rising inflation (i.e., CPI) mean little for US stocks? Simple. The Fed is actively allowing QE to happen right now, by allowing the $ they printed into the RRP account 2020-22 to drain, which is being used to buy @SecYellen's bonds. 2/2 She is then, turning around & spending that $ into private hands, who then buy US stocks, with no regard for valuation/inflation/etc. This isn't a passive vs. active thing. It's the US gov't, via the @federalreserve, pushing dollars into private hands, who then buy stocks.

1/5 Hey @elerianm, @steveliesman, @NickTimiraos, etc. - why aren't you asking the @federalreserve WHAT IN GOD'S NAME they are thinking to be talking about rate cuts with fincl. conditions now LOOSER than they were BEFORE the Fed started hiking rates, & "super core" CPI coming... 2/5... in, TODAY, at +85bps MoM, or +10.2% annualized? WHY AREN'T YOU ASKING WHY THEY AREN'T CONSIDERING RATE HIKES/MORE QT? The Fed's WHOLE REASON for existing is to keep prices steady, WHICH THEY ARE DECIDEDLY FALING TO DO. If they cut rates here,...

1/20 Why the Investment Strategy Team at @GLJ_Research, after extensive analysis (detailed below), blvs the $3bn in US loan guarantees (i.e., taxpayer handouts/welfare) @SecGranholm's @ENERGY extended to @SunnovaEnergy backed by analysis by @JigarShahDC are ACTUALLY HARMFUL... 2/20... to the most vulnerable amongst us (i.e., low-income Americans in smaller homes, or THE POOR) a 🧵. So, the Investment Strategy Team at @GLJ_Research, over the past two weeks, constructed a proprietary model with two theoretical systems (3.5kW & 7.5kW) in CT using...

1/4 As a reminder, #Bitcoin & ALL crypto has ZERO value b/c: 1. the tech doesn’t solve a real problem (it’s simply used to speculate), 2. it’s not a real currency & can’t act as one (fixed supply), 3. all cryptos are unregistered securities, &...

https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1749733170155524143

2/4... ... 4. private currencies have ALWAYS BEEN DISASTERS. In fact, while the crypto industry would like us to believe it’s in its early days, the truth is that premise is predicated on false ideas.

1/9 Hey @JigarShahDC and @SecGranholm... am I wrong in concluding, with your $3bn loan guarantee to $NOVA, the US gov't is actively guaranteeing allegedly fraudulent solar loans, as well as supporting predatory adjustable-rate-mortgage ("ARM")-like loans to poor people? - a 🧵 2/9 Two questions, and PLEASE correct me where I'm wrong here (I hope I am). So, to my understanding, the loans from $NOVA you are backing, @JigarShahDC, were originated using below-mkt interest rates, thus overstating the nominal value of the systems; and, b/c $NOVA incents...

1/3 @SecYellen, with the 10/31 QRA “shocker” (i.e., her funding both the 4Q23 and 1Q24 funding needs w/ ~57% s-term debt, when typically this number is 15-20%), crushed those short long-duration bonds, which caused a massive rally in bond prices, sending yields lower.

https://twitter.com/dariocpx/status/1740288443400564863

2/3 That also caused everyone on the wrong side of this trade to pile into any asset class that has underperformed, TO INCLUDE COMMODITIES (oil is now surging). This means inflation is coming back, AT THE VERY WORST TIME (i.e., you have a BUNCH of people long @SecYellen’s…

1/10 Why the reverse repo account, on the Fed’s bal. sheet is so important… a 🧵 2/10 I’ve heard a couple of people say when looking at liquidity measured as: Fed Bal. Sheet - RRP - TGA = Liquidity, you’re “double counting” as the TGA and RRP are on the Fed’s bal. sheet. However, notwithstanding the fact that this liquidity measure has a ~90% R-sqrd…

1/9 Want to know why stocks won't fall (hint - it's all being engineered by the @federalreserve/@SecYellen) ? Well, first, three points are worth noting, including: (1) US liquidity - defined as: Change in Fed Bal Sheet - Change in RRP - Change in TGA = Liquidity - has...
2/9... displayed a 93.4% R² correlation to US bank reserves dating back to 2009, (2) Bank Reserves have shown an 88.0% R² correlation to margin debt held in brokerage accounts (b/c as bank assets, which reserves are a part of, rise banks can provide more leverage to traders...

1/8 ANYONE with a pulse, especially the @federalreserve, knows that CPI was rigged with a 1/2 sigma move down with health insurance. There are no notes sufficient to explain it other than goal seeking.

https://twitter.com/PiQSuite/status/1725537471558025470

2/8 However, the Fed can’t call out @BLS_gov for fantasies in their “seasonal” adjustments. And, the BTFP + FHLBB advances will need to be rolled at cheap rates to maintain Tier 1 foe banks - not realistic.

1/14 While many investors today, who have never experienced a real recession (as they have been perpetually bailed out by the @federalreserve), have no idea who the "bond vigilantes" are, a deep understanding of just how VICIOUS they can be to markets, we believe will, SOON,... 2/14... become a must. So who are they? Well, "bond vigilantes" is an old school/fancy way of saying large institutional investors who buy government bonds, many times with leverage via complicated derivatives (which provides them, in general, more buying power).

1/11 Banks are in a pretty bad spot when considering the unrealized losses on securities at FDIC-insured commercial banks rose +$42.9bn to $558.4bn in 2Q23 (+8% QoQ), following two consecutive months of declines. Stated differently, of the $5.089tn in total securities held by... 2/13... commercial banks, 10.972% of them have unrealized losses (keep in mind, it was uninsured depositors figuring out SVB had $15.2bn of unrealized losses on its held-to-maturity ["HTM"] bonds, or 16.7% of the $91bn carrying value, that caused a run on that bank). In short,...