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Gordon Johnson Profile picture
Gordon Johnson
@GordonJohnson19
"Derivatives, are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal”-W Buffett; tweets are not fincl advice
9 subscribers
Jan 13 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1/4 Where in ANY economics book (ever written) does it say recessions are illegal, inflation should avg. 2%/yr, or stock investing should bear no risk? I know that's been the policy of the U.S. @federalreserve since QE found its way onto U.S. shores in 2008. 2/4 But, where is this "the law of the land" in any economics book? Alternatively, I can show you that PRETTY MUCH EVERY TIME, HISTORICALLY, nations/politicians attempted to "discontinue" the economic cycle (i.e., which includes recessions) by eliminating recessions...
Jan 10 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1/4 US Treasury yields are likely headed WAY, WAY higher. Why? Well, three reasons, namely: (1) the two largest historical buyers of US Treasury debt are net sellers currently, and Europe's holdings are also now falling too, (2) Trump's Treasury Secretary...Image 2/4... elect S. Bessent is unlikely to follow @SecYellen's focus on short-term debt issuance, writing for his fund, Key Square Capital Management in January of this year, where he warned: “Over a medium-term horizon, we believe [high bill issuance]...
Jan 3 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1/4 Options were not created/allowed to drive stocks higher. They were created to allow hedging. However, publicly traded company @CBOE introduced weekly, then daily, options, which have taken over most of the volume in markets. This has worked to push stocks to unforeseen... 2/4... highs; this happened before with the portfolio insurance strategies from the 1980s, which were VERY similar to 0DTE/weekly options gambling, and contributed to the 1987 Black Monday market crash – i.e., these strategies were subsequently blamed by a presidential task...
Dec 20, 2024 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
1/7 Why $NVDA's stock is falling, and will (likely) fall A LOT MORE today a 🧵. 2/7 It's clear to anyone with a brain that $NVDA, $TLSA, and a number of mega-cap tech stocks are legally manipulated daily via 0DTE and weekly options products recently introduced by publicly traded @CBOE. And, if you look at the implied vol on a 1m delta-call strike...
Dec 18, 2024 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1/4 No it won't. @DOGE will cut approximately $0.00 of actual spending. Why? Two reasons. First, it is IMPOSSIBLE to cut the $2tn @elonmusk is targeting as there is only $1.7tn in total government spending to cut (i.e., discretionary). And, of that $1.7tn, $805bn is defense,...Image 2/4... with the rest being Social Security and Medicare (cutting either of these = political suicide, SO THEY WON'T BE CUT). Second, given @DOGE is literally a carbon copy of President Ronald Reagan’s Grace Commission from 1982 (i.e., biz leaders assembled to cut spending),...
Nov 19, 2024 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
1/7 To those who say $TSLA is the "tech leader", a couple of hard facts (we know the stock trades 🦄/🌈, but facts remain important):

- Batteries: Despite @elonmusk’s claims at battery day that $TSLA’s 4680 cells would show +30% improvement () vs...drive.com.au/news/tesla-bat… 2/7... his current generation (Panasonic) cells, according to @TroyTeslike the energy density of $TSLA’s much touted 4680 battery pack is ACTUALLY LOWER than that of the older 18650 Panasonic cells (meaning $TSLA has achieved less than zero progress in battery development); Image
Nov 1, 2024 • 26 tweets • 7 min read
1/25 Why the evidence shows the U.S. @federalreserve doesn't have a serious theory on inflation, and instead seems focused only on inflating financial assets, benefitting the rich (i.e., the top 10%) to the detriment of most of our fellow Americans (the bottom 90%) a 🧵 2/25 The @federalreserve has a history of theories, which they have abandoned as soon as there was risk to rich people. What do we mean? Well, previously they've said they were for flexible average inflation targeting; that is, when inflation was at 1.7%, they said they'd...
Oct 25, 2024 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
1/8 Can someone who's a forensic accountant and/or works/worked at the @SECGov/@PwC help us understand, as it relates to $TSLA's just-reported 3Q24 figures, the answers to the following questions: 2/8 Where is $TSLA currently building a plant with a value wroth 75.1% of all of its existing land/equipment when it separately itemizes AI infrastructure spend of $3.693bn, $2.183bn of which was spent in 3Q24 alone... and $TSLA is not actively building a new auto plant? Image
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Oct 24, 2024 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1/4 While Wall Street folks like @DivesTech, @munster_gene, etc. are applauding the surge in $TSLA's margins, exclaiming how $TSLA is making cars more efficiently, that could not be further from the ACTUAL truth. That is, in addition to taking an incremental $326mn in FSD...Image 2/4... revs in Q3 as per the 10Q (associated w/ the Cybertruck/"ASS"), $TSLA reported $739mn in ZEV credits, which was +$203mn above the Cons' est. of $536mn, & +$339mn above the buy-side est. of ~$400mn. Stated differently, TSLA booked an extra ~$665mn of 100% margin... Image
Oct 9, 2024 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
1/16 Why $TSLA's (so called) "Cybercab" day, at 10:00pm EST tomorrow, will (likely) be a disappointment (and potentially a spectacular one) a 🧵. 2/16 So, first, we'll note, right ahead of this "major event": (a) $TSLA's CIO, Nagesh Saldi (who reported directly to E. Musk, and built $TSLA's data centers in TX/NY), quit 5 days ahead of "Cybercab day", (b) Daniel Ho (who reported directly to E. Musk, and served as Head...
Sep 4, 2024 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
1/7 Hey @NHTSAgov and @SECGov quick question. So... $TSLA is having a "Robotaxi Day" event on 10/10/24, once again on the set of a Hollywood Studio, to talk about its FSD technology. Recall that $TSLA did something similar when it sold then investors on the company buying $SCTY. 2/7 That is, $TSLA showed fake solar shingles (that never went into production) on the set of a fake house, which it used to convince $TSLA investors to dilute themselves to buy @elonmusk's cousin's company, $SCTY (.). So,...gotmusked.com/content/solarc…
Aug 28, 2024 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
1/12 Why $TSLA will (likely) never return to its immediate-post COVID glory days a 🧵. 2/12 In short, COVID caused a once-in-a-lifetime auto parts shortage (), which limited semi-auto-car chips, the world over… temporarily. And, while other automakers weren’t willing to bypass the decades-long dynamic of testing new chips...sensiblemicro.com/blog/supply-ch…
Jul 9, 2024 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1/6 A bit of clarification on this thread for the smart options guys. So, two days ago, of the 20 options chains displayed in the figure below, ~15 of them had a put/call ratio of >1.0x. So, the question is, WHO is buying puts in a stock going parabolically higher, DAILY?
Image 2/6 Taking a step back, keep in mind that the broker/bank simply matches counterparties (i.e., acts as an intermediary), or the put buyers vs. the put sellers. Thus, when the put/call ratios get out of balance, on large volume nonetheless, the brokers, often, actually BUY the...
Jul 9, 2024 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
1/12 Why $TSLA's stock is going up, daily, a thread. So, around the time $TSLA reported deliveries, the ratio of puts vs. call options being purchased increased materially. Don't believe me? Simply go to , load up $TSLA's ticker, and click on put/call...barcharts.com 2/12... ratio to get the history. In fact, as detailed below, for much of the options chain with the largest total amount outstanding, the put/call ratio is close to 1.0, and in some cases over 1.0. So what you ask? Well, for a stock that keeps going higher daily, why... Image
Jul 3, 2024 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
1/9 So what's a spiking SOFR rate mean? Well, we saw something similar in 2019, & it was caused by a combination of: (1) qtrly corporate tax payments that were due Sep. 16, which were withdrawn from bank & money market mutual fund ("MMF") accounts that went to the Treasury's... 2/9... account at the Fed (i.e., like we JUST SAW 6/15/24), and (2) a large amount of Treasury auctions (LIKE WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW), which were draining large amounts of reserves from the banking system. Stated differently, in the repo market, there were more Treasury...
May 29, 2024 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
1/17 The @federalreserve's ONLY mandate at present, using the evidence, is to print money out of thin air to thwart ANY dysfunction in the US Treasury market (which is VERY inflationary) a 🧵. Image 2/17 While the Fed acts like they care about inflation, the tricks they've used, in conjunction with @SecYellen, to counter any sig. rise in UST yields, shows they care NOTHING about inflation, and, rather, only focus on fighting ANY disfunction in the US Treasury markets.
Apr 29, 2024 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
1/8 $TSLA's driverless FSD technology HAS NOT BEEN APPROVED IN CHINA (that requires a completely different license which $TSLA did not get). All those saying otherwise (which is nearly everyone) are completely wrong. Why? Well, TSLA will likely… 2/8... see NO rev from any of what was approved in China today (i.e., a few driver assist features), inside of China because all of TSLA’s peers offer the same tech, RIGHT NOW, FOR FREE (i.e., Chinese consumers are not going to pay TSLA for something...
Apr 23, 2024 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
1/9 Are you actively engaging in cognitive dissonance, @munster_gene, or have you morphed into a cheerleader for $TSLA, devoid of the ability to remember what was said, A LITTLE MORE THAN A YEAR AGO, at $TSLA's 3/1/23 investor day a 🧵. 2/9 So, first, @munster_gene, I'll remind you that at $TSLA's 3/1/23 investor day, @elonmusk and $TSLA's engineers claimed they discovered a new car manf. process that would reduce the cost to make an EV by 50%, while also reducing factory space required to do it by 40%. Image
Apr 6, 2024 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
1/10 @munster_gene... serious question... do you have no shame a 🧵. 2/10 First off, in this video, using @elonmusk's own words... since 2014... @elonmusk has promised full autonomy "one month away" on highways (he's STILL NOT THERE TODAY); and, in 2018, he began promising full autonomy better than a human "next year"... twitter.com/messages/media…
Apr 2, 2024 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
1/6 The Fed is re-pivoting. Why? Well, as @GLJ_Research has said time and time again, the current @federalreserve policy is WAY TOO LOOSE. Why? Well, while the Fed continues to use the Laubach-Williams Model for its nominal neutral rate of 2.88% (which... 2/6... it subtracts from its Effective Fed Funds Rate [“EFFR”] to gauge “restrictiveness”), the Richmond Fed’s Lubik-Matthes model pegs the nominal neutral rate of inflation at 4.17% today (which, ironically, was the Fed’s est. for...
Mar 14, 2024 • 14 tweets • 6 min read
1/14 Here's some thoughts (from my friend @StanphylCap) debunking the "$TSLA is more than a car company thesis" a 🧵(I HIGHLY encourage you to read this, with the accompanying links, VERY CLOSELY). 2/14 First, on $TSLA as an "AI" company, I'll remind you that the three top leaders of that team at $TSLA left the company in Oct. 2023 (that does not infuse confidence in their efforts here). The, on chargers, $TSLA is now opening its U.S. charging stations to cars...