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Gordon Johnson Profile picture
Gordon Johnson
@GordonJohnson19
"Derivatives, are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal”-W Buffett; tweets are not fincl advice
Philippe Bustros Profile picture Kim Profile picture MSC Profile picture Sunny888 Profile picture Andi Liu Profile picture 10 subscribed
Jul 9 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1/6 A bit of clarification on this thread for the smart options guys. So, two days ago, of the 20 options chains displayed in the figure below, ~15 of them had a put/call ratio of >1.0x. So, the question is, WHO is buying puts in a stock going parabolically higher, DAILY?
Image 2/6 Taking a step back, keep in mind that the broker/bank simply matches counterparties (i.e., acts as an intermediary), or the put buyers vs. the put sellers. Thus, when the put/call ratios get out of balance, on large volume nonetheless, the brokers, often, actually BUY the...
Jul 9 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
1/12 Why $TSLA's stock is going up, daily, a thread. So, around the time $TSLA reported deliveries, the ratio of puts vs. call options being purchased increased materially. Don't believe me? Simply go to , load up $TSLA's ticker, and click on put/call...barcharts.com 2/12... ratio to get the history. In fact, as detailed below, for much of the options chain with the largest total amount outstanding, the put/call ratio is close to 1.0, and in some cases over 1.0. So what you ask? Well, for a stock that keeps going higher daily, why... Image
Jul 3 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
1/9 So what's a spiking SOFR rate mean? Well, we saw something similar in 2019, & it was caused by a combination of: (1) qtrly corporate tax payments that were due Sep. 16, which were withdrawn from bank & money market mutual fund ("MMF") accounts that went to the Treasury's... 2/9... account at the Fed (i.e., like we JUST SAW 6/15/24), and (2) a large amount of Treasury auctions (LIKE WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW), which were draining large amounts of reserves from the banking system. Stated differently, in the repo market, there were more Treasury...
May 29 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
1/17 The @federalreserve's ONLY mandate at present, using the evidence, is to print money out of thin air to thwart ANY dysfunction in the US Treasury market (which is VERY inflationary) a 🧵. Image 2/17 While the Fed acts like they care about inflation, the tricks they've used, in conjunction with @SecYellen, to counter any sig. rise in UST yields, shows they care NOTHING about inflation, and, rather, only focus on fighting ANY disfunction in the US Treasury markets.
Apr 29 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
1/8 $TSLA's driverless FSD technology HAS NOT BEEN APPROVED IN CHINA (that requires a completely different license which $TSLA did not get). All those saying otherwise (which is nearly everyone) are completely wrong. Why? Well, TSLA will likely… 2/8... see NO rev from any of what was approved in China today (i.e., a few driver assist features), inside of China because all of TSLA’s peers offer the same tech, RIGHT NOW, FOR FREE (i.e., Chinese consumers are not going to pay TSLA for something...
Apr 23 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
1/9 Are you actively engaging in cognitive dissonance, @munster_gene, or have you morphed into a cheerleader for $TSLA, devoid of the ability to remember what was said, A LITTLE MORE THAN A YEAR AGO, at $TSLA's 3/1/23 investor day a 🧵. 2/9 So, first, @munster_gene, I'll remind you that at $TSLA's 3/1/23 investor day, @elonmusk and $TSLA's engineers claimed they discovered a new car manf. process that would reduce the cost to make an EV by 50%, while also reducing factory space required to do it by 40%. Image
Apr 6 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
1/10 @munster_gene... serious question... do you have no shame a 🧵. 2/10 First off, in this video, using @elonmusk's own words... since 2014... @elonmusk has promised full autonomy "one month away" on highways (he's STILL NOT THERE TODAY); and, in 2018, he began promising full autonomy better than a human "next year"... twitter.com/messages/media…
Apr 2 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
1/6 The Fed is re-pivoting. Why? Well, as @GLJ_Research has said time and time again, the current @federalreserve policy is WAY TOO LOOSE. Why? Well, while the Fed continues to use the Laubach-Williams Model for its nominal neutral rate of 2.88% (which... 2/6... it subtracts from its Effective Fed Funds Rate [“EFFR”] to gauge “restrictiveness”), the Richmond Fed’s Lubik-Matthes model pegs the nominal neutral rate of inflation at 4.17% today (which, ironically, was the Fed’s est. for...
Mar 14 • 14 tweets • 6 min read
1/14 Here's some thoughts (from my friend @StanphylCap) debunking the "$TSLA is more than a car company thesis" a 🧵(I HIGHLY encourage you to read this, with the accompanying links, VERY CLOSELY). 2/14 First, on $TSLA as an "AI" company, I'll remind you that the three top leaders of that team at $TSLA left the company in Oct. 2023 (that does not infuse confidence in their efforts here). The, on chargers, $TSLA is now opening its U.S. charging stations to cars...
Mar 11 • 25 tweets • 5 min read
1/25 Question @MaryGPowell and $RUN regarding your ongoing use of a 6% discount rate to value your owned assets (the value of which you take a 30% tax credit on) a 🧵. 2/25 Really, my question is, after looking at your most recent capital raise, why are you using a 20% cost of capital to fund assets that earn 6%, and how is this economically feasible🤨? Is @Sunrun's secret that it loses money on every solar system, but makes it up in volume🤔?
Mar 7 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
1/11 Why are the Dems/@POTUS getting crushed in polling, Biden's approval rating abysmal, and things set to actually get worse through 2024 should the @federalreserve/@SecYellen not be reined in a 🧵. 2/11 So, as my friend @INArteCarloDoss pointed out a long time ago, the real problem w/ inflation is the statistical noise that has taken over. That is, there's a HUGE disconnect between the USELESS inflation measures the intelligentsia debate, daily, such as "core",...
Mar 4 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1/4 For all of those asking why #Bitcoin and other memes, alt coins, etc. are skyrocketing higher📈, the @federalreserve is currently doing de facto QE by letting the excess 💸 they printed 2020-21 that was sitting dormant in the RRP account to buy @SecYellen's bonds. Yes,...Image 2/4... you heard that right. That is, with inflation currently inflecting higher💥, the Fed is throwing proverbial gasoline ⛽️on the inflation fire 🔥by letting the reckless excesses it printed 2020-21 to flow into private hands. Why? No idea. We're just...
Feb 26 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
1/7 Why this tweet by someone w/ >500K followers is (very) misleading - i.e., rather intentional, or not, a 🧵. 2/7 You can't look at the Fed's bal. sheet in isolation. You have to look at total US liquidity, or: Fed Bal. Sheet - TGA - RRP = total US liquidity (or private money in the commercial banking system). And, when looking at this metric, due to the massive drain in the...
Feb 21 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1/4 There isn't weakness in labor markets. In fact, the LABOR MARKET IS QUITE STRONG, historically, and we are NO WHERE NEAR the danger zone. In fact, the replacement rate of jobs in the US economy is 50K-80K/month, vs. non-farm payrolls currently trending at 350K-400K/month.
Image 2/4 Translation? It's ABSOLUTLEY absurd to be talking about rate cuts, given: (a) WE HAVEN'T COME ANYWHERE NEAR the replacement rate of jobs in the US economy of 50K-80K/month, & (b) a number of inflation measures (ISM + NFIB + PPI + "core" CPI + etc.) are inflecting higher.Image
Feb 15 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1/2 Why does rising inflation (i.e., CPI) mean little for US stocks? Simple. The Fed is actively allowing QE to happen right now, by allowing the $ they printed into the RRP account 2020-22 to drain, which is being used to buy @SecYellen's bonds. Image 2/2 She is then, turning around & spending that $ into private hands, who then buy US stocks, with no regard for valuation/inflation/etc. This isn't a passive vs. active thing. It's the US gov't, via the @federalreserve, pushing dollars into private hands, who then buy stocks.
Feb 13 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1/5 Hey @elerianm, @steveliesman, @NickTimiraos, etc. - why aren't you asking the @federalreserve WHAT IN GOD'S NAME they are thinking to be talking about rate cuts with fincl. conditions now LOOSER than they were BEFORE the Fed started hiking rates, & "super core" CPI coming... Image 2/5... in, TODAY, at +85bps MoM, or +10.2% annualized? WHY AREN'T YOU ASKING WHY THEY AREN'T CONSIDERING RATE HIKES/MORE QT? The Fed's WHOLE REASON for existing is to keep prices steady, WHICH THEY ARE DECIDEDLY FALING TO DO. If they cut rates here,... Image
Feb 1 • 20 tweets • 5 min read
1/20 Why the Investment Strategy Team at @GLJ_Research, after extensive analysis (detailed below), blvs the $3bn in US loan guarantees (i.e., taxpayer handouts/welfare) @SecGranholm's @ENERGY extended to @SunnovaEnergy backed by analysis by @JigarShahDC are ACTUALLY HARMFUL... 2/20... to the most vulnerable amongst us (i.e., low-income Americans in smaller homes, or THE POOR) a 🧵. So, the Investment Strategy Team at @GLJ_Research, over the past two weeks, constructed a proprietary model with two theoretical systems (3.5kW & 7.5kW) in CT using...
Jan 23 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1/4 As a reminder, #Bitcoin & ALL crypto has ZERO value b/c: 1. the tech doesn’t solve a real problem (it’s simply used to speculate), 2. it’s not a real currency & can’t act as one (fixed supply), 3. all cryptos are unregistered securities, &... 2/4... ... 4. private currencies have ALWAYS BEEN DISASTERS. In fact, while the crypto industry would like us to believe it’s in its early days, the truth is that premise is predicated on false ideas.
Jan 8 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
1/9 Hey @JigarShahDC and @SecGranholm... am I wrong in concluding, with your $3bn loan guarantee to $NOVA, the US gov't is actively guaranteeing allegedly fraudulent solar loans, as well as supporting predatory adjustable-rate-mortgage ("ARM")-like loans to poor people? - a 🧵 2/9 Two questions, and PLEASE correct me where I'm wrong here (I hope I am). So, to my understanding, the loans from $NOVA you are backing, @JigarShahDC, were originated using below-mkt interest rates, thus overstating the nominal value of the systems; and, b/c $NOVA incents...
Dec 28, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1/3 @SecYellen, with the 10/31 QRA “shocker” (i.e., her funding both the 4Q23 and 1Q24 funding needs w/ ~57% s-term debt, when typically this number is 15-20%), crushed those short long-duration bonds, which caused a massive rally in bond prices, sending yields lower. 2/3 That also caused everyone on the wrong side of this trade to pile into any asset class that has underperformed, TO INCLUDE COMMODITIES (oil is now surging). This means inflation is coming back, AT THE VERY WORST TIME (i.e., you have a BUNCH of people long @SecYellen’s…
Dec 24, 2023 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
1/10 Why the reverse repo account, on the Fed’s bal. sheet is so important… a 🧵 2/10 I’ve heard a couple of people say when looking at liquidity measured as: Fed Bal. Sheet - RRP - TGA = Liquidity, you’re “double counting” as the TGA and RRP are on the Fed’s bal. sheet. However, notwithstanding the fact that this liquidity measure has a ~90% R-sqrd…