Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Gordon Johnson Profile picture
Gordon Johnson
@GordonJohnson19
"Derivatives, are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal”-W Buffett; tweets are not fincl advice
10 subscribers
Aug 9 • 25 tweets • 5 min read
1/20 Why Trump’s misreading of the trade deficit is a market risk - and why it’s about to get worse a 🧵 2/25 So, as an example, let’s say you have a credit card, then you go to the mall and buy a bunch of stuff w/ it. And, let’s say you put more stuff on your credit card than money you make annually. What this means is you are running a trade deficit with the stores in the mall.
Jul 15 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
1/7 AI is the 1999 internet bubble all over again (and EVERYONE/ANYONE with a decent head on their shoulders knows it). It ends when a company fully replaces human support - say Microsoft & Windows 11 - and it systemically ruins the software. Or, tax advice... 2/7... is given that is clearly illegal and is given systemically. Moreover, companies are going to have to show some cost savings/revenues soon from Ai - i.e., an actual use case for the billions spent. You can't spend into a black hole forever.
Jul 11 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
1/4 You're wrong old friend. The @federalreserve is not only providing stimulus at present, but has been for a while. How do I know? 2/4 Does anyone wonder why Crypto is at an all-time-high & stocks keep going up daily despite deteriorating economic data (job losses picking up + poor $AMZN Prime Day sales + revolving credit dropping -3.2% YoY in May [most since Aug. '20] + real wage growth falling + etc.)? Image
Image
Image
Image
Jun 1 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
1/5 No. $TSLA's stock is well (for now). However, $TSLA's fundamental business in China + Canada + Europe + USA + Australia = is in a state of absolute collapse. $TSLA's 1Q25A GAAP-EPS missed Consensus ests. by -63.1%. Can you imagine what would happen to $NVDA's, $META's,... 2/5... $GOOGL's, etc. share prices had they missed 1Q25A GAAP-EPS by -63.1%? The promise of car that drive themselves, since 2014, is the reason the stock hasn't imploded (yet). But, 10 cars driving around Austin + geofenced + w/ "teleoperators" for each car +...
Apr 29 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1/5 So, the @federalreserve has allowed inflation expectations to become COMPLETELY unhinged, yet again, which means, soon, a surge in inflation is coming to a grocery "shelf" near you/me. Yet, instead of the folks who "have a voice" demanding to know why J. Powell... Image 2/5... and crew are not doing anything to combat this (i.e., by aggressively shrinking the bal. sheet), J. Powell continues to get softball questions at each presser. Keep in mind, inflation is defined by: M2 * M2V, where M2 = $. Thus, in short, inflation is a monetary...
Apr 22 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1/4 CAUTION: @GLJ_Research is not an expert (yet) in the AI space. So... @IvanaSpear... question. In the chart below you show $TSMC's revs at $19bn. Thusly, given $NVDA is basically their only customer, and $NVDA claims margins on GPUs of ~70%, $19bn in $TSMC rev equates to... 2/4... around $63.3bn in $NVDA rev (i.e., $19bn in TSMC rev ÷ [1 - 70%, or $NVDA's G. Margin] = $63.3bn) - i.e., keep in mind, TSMC is $NVDA's sole supplier. So, why do you peg NVDA's revs at $200bn? Where is the other $136.6bn coming from, USING YOUR numbers?
Apr 11 • 18 tweets • 6 min read
1/18 For anyone who's followed @elonmusk and $TSLA since ~2017-18, they've seen @elonmusk get away with QUITE A BIT, which may have landed a normal person in (very) hot water. What are some of those things? Well, in no particular order, we note: 2/18 Musk has hinted $TSLA will have robotaxis, “next year”, every year, for nearly a decade, which $TSLA still hasn’t achieved; yet, $TSLA has used that promise to raise billions in capital from investors, again, for nearly a decade ().
Mar 2 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
1/10 @elonmusk also said, in recent days: (a) USAID spent your tax dollars to fund celebrity trips to Ukraine, all to boost Zelensky’s popularity among Americans (this was not true, and included a video that was fabricated), (b) “Reuters was paid millions of dollars by the US… 2/10… for ‘large scale social deception’. That is literally what it says on the purchase order! They’re a total scam. Just wow” (this proved not true, and we later found this contract was awarded by Trump), (c) Castes baseless suspicion upon tax credits under Trump and Biden…
Feb 26 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
1/7 Ponzi schemes, pump-and-dumps, and cons falling to earth is GOOD for society. Unproductive 🐀poison (i.e., #Bitcoin/#CRYPTO), that eats up valuable energy resources is BAD for society. Send this garbage to zero. It's good for humankind. 2/7 Why is #Bitcoin 🐀poison? Simple. (1) Crypto is a story that are bits of computer code uncorrelated with any real-world asset; it’s a ponzi; an investment without value is a ponzi scheme;
Feb 18 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
1/8 Why the @federalreserve has made NO progress on inflation, and why, if they don't get serious about "real" bank reserve reduction, inflation is going to surge A LOT MORE. So... balances at the Fed's Overnight Reverse Repo ("ON RRP") dropped below $60bn 2/14, or the lowest... 2/8... level since April 2021, and down from $2.4tn (yes, you heard that right) at the peak in Dec. 2022. And, by all intents and purposes, the ON RRP is on its way to zero, which is where it is in normal times. So what is the Fed's ON RRP account? It's the excess liquidity... Image
Jan 24 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1/6 #Bitcoin and all crypto coins are Ponzi schemes/rat poison (using Charlie Munger’s words). Why? Simple. (1) Crypto is a story that are bits of computer code… 2/6… uncorrelated with any real-world asset; it’s a ponzi; an investment without value is a ponzi scheme; (2) this is not a new tech; blockchain is at least 30yrs old; goes back to 1991 when Stewart Haberman and Scott Stornetta…
Jan 13 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1/4 Where in ANY economics book (ever written) does it say recessions are illegal, inflation should avg. 2%/yr, or stock investing should bear no risk? I know that's been the policy of the U.S. @federalreserve since QE found its way onto U.S. shores in 2008. 2/4 But, where is this "the law of the land" in any economics book? Alternatively, I can show you that PRETTY MUCH EVERY TIME, HISTORICALLY, nations/politicians attempted to "discontinue" the economic cycle (i.e., which includes recessions) by eliminating recessions...
Jan 10 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1/4 US Treasury yields are likely headed WAY, WAY higher. Why? Well, three reasons, namely: (1) the two largest historical buyers of US Treasury debt are net sellers currently, and Europe's holdings are also now falling too, (2) Trump's Treasury Secretary...Image 2/4... elect S. Bessent is unlikely to follow @SecYellen's focus on short-term debt issuance, writing for his fund, Key Square Capital Management in January of this year, where he warned: “Over a medium-term horizon, we believe [high bill issuance]...
Jan 3 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1/4 Options were not created/allowed to drive stocks higher. They were created to allow hedging. However, publicly traded company @CBOE introduced weekly, then daily, options, which have taken over most of the volume in markets. This has worked to push stocks to unforeseen... 2/4... highs; this happened before with the portfolio insurance strategies from the 1980s, which were VERY similar to 0DTE/weekly options gambling, and contributed to the 1987 Black Monday market crash – i.e., these strategies were subsequently blamed by a presidential task...
Dec 20, 2024 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
1/7 Why $NVDA's stock is falling, and will (likely) fall A LOT MORE today a 🧵. 2/7 It's clear to anyone with a brain that $NVDA, $TLSA, and a number of mega-cap tech stocks are legally manipulated daily via 0DTE and weekly options products recently introduced by publicly traded @CBOE. And, if you look at the implied vol on a 1m delta-call strike...
Dec 18, 2024 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1/4 No it won't. @DOGE will cut approximately $0.00 of actual spending. Why? Two reasons. First, it is IMPOSSIBLE to cut the $2tn @elonmusk is targeting as there is only $1.7tn in total government spending to cut (i.e., discretionary). And, of that $1.7tn, $805bn is defense,...Image 2/4... with the rest being Social Security and Medicare (cutting either of these = political suicide, SO THEY WON'T BE CUT). Second, given @DOGE is literally a carbon copy of President Ronald Reagan’s Grace Commission from 1982 (i.e., biz leaders assembled to cut spending),...
Nov 19, 2024 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
1/7 To those who say $TSLA is the "tech leader", a couple of hard facts (we know the stock trades 🦄/🌈, but facts remain important):

- Batteries: Despite @elonmusk’s claims at battery day that $TSLA’s 4680 cells would show +30% improvement () vs...drive.com.au/news/tesla-bat… 2/7... his current generation (Panasonic) cells, according to @TroyTeslike the energy density of $TSLA’s much touted 4680 battery pack is ACTUALLY LOWER than that of the older 18650 Panasonic cells (meaning $TSLA has achieved less than zero progress in battery development); Image
Nov 1, 2024 • 26 tweets • 7 min read
1/25 Why the evidence shows the U.S. @federalreserve doesn't have a serious theory on inflation, and instead seems focused only on inflating financial assets, benefitting the rich (i.e., the top 10%) to the detriment of most of our fellow Americans (the bottom 90%) a 🧵 2/25 The @federalreserve has a history of theories, which they have abandoned as soon as there was risk to rich people. What do we mean? Well, previously they've said they were for flexible average inflation targeting; that is, when inflation was at 1.7%, they said they'd...
Oct 25, 2024 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
1/8 Can someone who's a forensic accountant and/or works/worked at the @SECGov/@PwC help us understand, as it relates to $TSLA's just-reported 3Q24 figures, the answers to the following questions: 2/8 Where is $TSLA currently building a plant with a value wroth 75.1% of all of its existing land/equipment when it separately itemizes AI infrastructure spend of $3.693bn, $2.183bn of which was spent in 3Q24 alone... and $TSLA is not actively building a new auto plant? Image
Image
Oct 24, 2024 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1/4 While Wall Street folks like @DivesTech, @munster_gene, etc. are applauding the surge in $TSLA's margins, exclaiming how $TSLA is making cars more efficiently, that could not be further from the ACTUAL truth. That is, in addition to taking an incremental $326mn in FSD...Image 2/4... revs in Q3 as per the 10Q (associated w/ the Cybertruck/"ASS"), $TSLA reported $739mn in ZEV credits, which was +$203mn above the Cons' est. of $536mn, & +$339mn above the buy-side est. of ~$400mn. Stated differently, TSLA booked an extra ~$665mn of 100% margin... Image
Oct 9, 2024 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
1/16 Why $TSLA's (so called) "Cybercab" day, at 10:00pm EST tomorrow, will (likely) be a disappointment (and potentially a spectacular one) a 🧵. 2/16 So, first, we'll note, right ahead of this "major event": (a) $TSLA's CIO, Nagesh Saldi (who reported directly to E. Musk, and built $TSLA's data centers in TX/NY), quit 5 days ahead of "Cybercab day", (b) Daniel Ho (who reported directly to E. Musk, and served as Head...