I think there's a chance they take this to $3600, especially if we have volatility tomorrow.
If we sweep and maintain these divs, it's going to be a nasty correction (not saying end, just correction)
Don't want to be swept/active so Puts the play.
This set up is absolutely a condition that I would urge caution in.
HTF supply just above us.
Clear signs of reducing momentum on each high created.
Divergences across 3 timeframes both HTF highs and LTF (4h) consolidation.
Corrections in these trends are often hard and fast.
I'm actually really surprised $ETH didn't break clear of this divergence. I said on stream on Sunday that it was too early to short, but today you're going to get confirmation of the div.
Less power than I expected through this last leg. Shame, but it is what it is.
Fade if you want to fade.
There's a difference between understanding when a situation is playable vs when it is not.
Some profit taken, $ banked and we're off to relax.
Stream tomorrow.
Summary for educational purposes on the back and forth today.
RSI produced 3 divergences on 3 timeframes.
After -9% we'd consider the 4h/12h played out. Now we see if the Daily kicks in as well to drive again.
Counter-trend you take profit and reassess for the HTF play.
You had very clear signals from RSI that this impulse was coming to the downside.
With the Daily div you either get a continuation from here or we continue to push back to the upside with the potential for another divergence leg or clear break and invalidation.
Regardless of the turn the discussion took, I hope that this summary of RSI and divergences shows how they can be very simple to spot, give solid signals, and if you understand how they playout/manage expectations can be great earners.
Remaining $ETH Puts printing into the close.
LTF divergences starting to appear, expiry imminent. Been a great impulse play from the divs.
Now we see if the June's go to work.
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I feel like I've been terminally online for a month, absorbing so much information relentlessly.
Went out this week and felt very dissociated from reality. Not sure if anyone else feels this but was like the world around me was just NPCs. Almost felt alien.
Just feels as though it's been information overload for weeks, sell offs, scams, new launches, politics, etc and whether it's addiction or necessity or the thirst to maintain relevance in the space that drives me to stay focused on being part of ALL of it.
Feels as though I don't leave my phone alone, browsing for the sake of browsing and really not engaged in reality or being in the moment.
Going to spend less time on Twitter to recalibrate, reprioritising to more time in Discord with @TheHavenCrypto and far less time intaking quite so much unnecessary information.
Basically think I got my time priorities wrong.
Spent longer on Twitter (maybe Yaps, maybe activity, maybe information necessity)
Which then negatively impacted actions elsewhere, real life (just sat in the office all day) and productive discussion in online sources.
Discord seems to be the alpha, limited discussion set, more value.
now i'm here writing a fucking thread about why I should tweet less
Crypto stocks are my primary exposure vehicle this bull run.
I've been building positions for months (owned $MSTR since October 2023 - choosing it over $BTC exposure) and ramped up buying significantly before the election.
I am already in a disgusting amount of profit, but it's going to get much crazier.
There are a huge amount of reasons why, especially in this environment I think crypto stocks outperform the majority of crypto coins.
I'll present:
- Overall comparisons against coins
- Outperformance of crypto stocks
- Reasons why
- Environmental shift
- Technical Analysis
First up comparisons.
Before you think this is some recent obsession, I've been advocating for this for a very long time, all the way back in September 2023 when I took exposure in $MSTR instead of $BTC.
One of my strongest held beliefs is that the continued dilution of memecoins is one of the best bullish catalysts for $DOGE.
>DOGE is a memecoin, I buy
>Oh these new meme coins outperform DOGE
>Wow there's now millions of memecoins on millions of chains
>I will just buy DOGE
What's happened over time is that we've diluted to a huge degree.
Initially you had:
DOGE
If you wanted a lotto ticket, "DOGE to $1!" that was your play.
With the rise of $PEPE and others there was a decision to make. Now of course on-chain was still continuing throughout this time but it was a little more niche.
$PEPE caught the attention of the masses and you'll remember many said "why ever take exposure to DOGE anymore"
In trading, for the majority, the more information you look to gather, the more indicator usage you rely on, the more data points you consider, puts you further from the intellectual path you believe you're following and deeper into the middle of the curve.
Simplicity.
Knowledge is sometimes a curse.
The more we know in trading actually causes our decision making to become less clear.
Analysis-paralysis takes hold.
We feel as though we SHOULD look for more supporting info, we dive into data we have no idea about but it makes us sound more informed.
Let's take a little dive into the $ETH price action and determine whether or not we're at a psychological extreme that means we should be long, or if the market truly is the loser we all think it is.
🧵
At time of writing, ETH sits +62% up in 2023.
For comparison:
SOL +480%
BTC +121%
MSTR +242%
AVAX +90%
NVDA +250%
It's been an incredibly poor performer and would be more suited to the bottom of a list of investable markets right now.
But there have been glimmers of hope for $ETH. We've seen a couple of flashes where ETHBTC doesn't continue it's death-spiral and instead offers some hope for what might be a turnaround point.
However, and unfortunately, each of these times has proven to be a local top.
In every uptrend there is that sell off that catches people out.
Conditioned into buying dips (as they should), people bid too early and haven't spotted the signals from HTFs that this is one they should sit out.
IMO that's where we are, I think this one is deeper. 🧵
So what does that mean?
I think the HTF is more "ready" for a correction than at any other point we've seen so far, I think that the signs of weakness are there after a huge run.
Big HTF divergences without a playout, I want to see those resolved.
I still want to bid, but I need to think about spreading those bids around a little bit more and not jumping in at the first sign of a sell off which has worked so well previously.
This time is a little different in that regard for me.