Suddenly, it becomes clear. Putin's war in Ukraine shows how great damage Putin has done to the Russian state. I would argue that Putin has made Russia fail as a state. That will have major consequences.
Putin's most obvious failure is that he is about to be beaten militarily by Ukraine. Russia is not even a regional power. Ukraine has taken out 50 out of 120 battalion tactical groups allocated to Ukraine & Russia has a total of only 170. Ukraine is on the verge to defeat Russia.
This Putin failure is becoming all the more serious, because he has formed a state, a Sparta, that is only living for wars, unable to comply with any treaties or international law.
Nor is Putin able to govern. He has formed an authoritarian kleptocracy, in which only the stealing to the benefit of a narrow elite goes well. Without any democracy, he does nothing for Russia's citizens, delivering no democracy or rule of law, only repression.
Putin is spectacularly disinterested in the development of the Russian economy, which has not grown since 2014, leading to social misery.
Putin's only escape is lies and propaganda, recreating Orwell's 1984. He has created a shallow ideology of Putinism, essentially Russia is great and has two beat everybody else with force. Mussolini's fascism seems profound by comparison.
What should the West do about this dangerous disaster? Threat Putin and his Russia as Hitler's Germany from 1941: Don't talk to him, just threaten and beat him. Deadenders such as Putin are not rational but fanatical and desperate. Biden understands him right.
After Putin has destroyed the Russian military forces, his only remaining argument is that he has nukes. But so does the West. The West simply need to tell Putin that if you use nukes, so will we, and you will be dead in the water. Such arguments work on Putin.
The Western aim must be to follow the wise words of President Biden: "For God's sake, this man cannot remain in power." This must be the aim of Western policy. The question is how much we should engage to achieve this goal that is so desirable for world peace.
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Patriarch Kirill acknowledged that he stood in a cathedral built not so much for the glory of God as for the glory of Russian military might. He said he had come to address the leaders of their Russian forces, and through them, their troops. religiondispatches.org/the-russian-pa…
Kirill offered a version of history that simply erases Ukraine from the map. He blame “various forces” for a false division between Russia and Ukraine. In fact, he doesn’t even acknowledge there are such people as Ukrainians, referring to all involved parties as “Holy Russians.”
Patriarch Kirill’s sermon refuses to acknowledge the distinction between Russian and Ukrainian culture and identity, and it denies Ukraine’s right to exist as a sovereign nation, both historically and in the present.
Current conclusions on the war:
Everybody is waiting for the real battle of the Donbass. The Russians have consolidated & reinforced their forces & are attacking.
The Russians are bombing critical infrastructure in a more targeted fashion than before. They have learned.
The Ukrainians still overwhelmingly think they will win, but they think it will take more time.
They urgently need more arms & more offensive & modern arms. With many Western volunteers they have soldiers who can handle all modern arms.
Today, it has been officially reported that the Ukrainian troops in Odesa have got harpoons anti-ship weapons from the UK, note not from the US. Ambassador John Herbst et al have called for harpoons for a year or so. The West needs to speed up.
The War: North. Russian forces continued to block & shell Kharkiv to tie down Ukrainian troops & prevent them from sending reinforcements to Ukrainian brigades in Donbas. It was quiet in the Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy regions after Russian forces pulled back into Belarus & Russia.
Donbas: Fighting is going on, but no gains reported for the Russians. Russia is continuing to consolidate forces in this area, including by redeploying troops withdrawn from the Kyiv front, in preparation for a major offensive, according to the Ukrainian military (Dragon Capital)
South. Russian forces remained on the defensive in the Kherson region, trying to contain Ukrainian counterattacks.
Treasury is imposing full blocking sanctions on Sberbank, Russia’s largest state-owned bank, and Alfa-Bank, Russia’s largest private bank. Treasury is also targeting family members of President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov... home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…
...as well as Russian Security Council members who are complicit in the war against Ukraine. In addition, the President is issuing a new Executive Order today, which bans new investment in Russia.
Treasury is fully blocking Public Joint Stock Company Sberbank of Russia & 42 Sberbank subsidiaries.
The European Commission seeks to ban Russian coal imports, impose sanctions on four Russian banks and ban Russian vessels from European Union ports. To block Russian shipping to Europe is the most important measure. washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/…
Oil is mainly exported from ports around St. Petersburg in small tankers & reloaded predominantly in Rotterdam to supertankers and then shipped all over the world. The closure of Rotterdam to Russian oil tankers will greatly limit Russian oil exports.
The financial sanctions should be reinforced so that they cover all banks and take them all off SWIFT. Too many loopholes remains.
All insurance on Russian subjects should be sanctioned as well. That would have tremendous effect.
High time for the EU to sanction Boris Rotenberg, one of Putin's real cronies but having been protected as Finnish citizen. He has sanctioned by the US in March 2014. Also high time to sanction Deripaska, sanctioned by the US in April 2018. ft.com/content/da05ea…
Great also to sanction Putin’s daughters, Ekaterina Tikhonova & Maria Vorontsova. The US will do so too.
German Gref of Sberbank has already been sanctioned by the US & UK, so good the EU catches up. In April 2018, the US sanctioned Suleiman Kerimov. Now the EU sanctions his son
The EU now sanctions Vladimir Bogdanov, director-general of Surgutneftegas, a Putin crony, sanctioned by the US in April 2018. This coordination & catch up is highly welcome. The EU, US, UK and Canada et al should coordinate their sanctions so that one sanction covers all of them