Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

The Russian Army might be in worse shape than imagined (and Ive probably been about as skeptical about their condition as anyone since this started). It also looks like Putin doesnt trust forces that were not sent to Ukraine in the first place.

Why? There are signs that the Russians want to send the troops that have pulled out of Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy into the Donbas quickly, including those responsible for the Bucha massacre. english.nv.ua/nation/russian…

Pentagon sources are saying that the plan is to send about two-thirds of the forces that the Russians have pulled out of the north and redeploy to the south and east.

https://twitter.com/news18dotcom/status/1511430975519182852?s=20&t=I2zLDvO1WvArS8Fxj97vow

If so, this is an army in terrible shape and running out of options. These troops have been worn down, defeated, lost much of their equipment and would under any circumstances be close to being combat ineffective. globalsecurity.org/military/libra…

Combat ineffectiveness is not a science, but throughout history unit performance has degraded considerably when these factors rise: losses of personnel and equipment, time in combat operations, battlefield failure. All of these are now high for the Russian forces being redeployed

Those troops in any rational system would be rested, re-equipped and allowed time before being sent to another stressful combat situation. That Putin is going to try and do it with these forces reveals these 4 things which show how difficult the long-war scenario is for Russia.

1) The Russians dont trust the rest of their armed forces. If they could, they would be sending fresh troops into combat not these that have suffered such losses.

2) They are willing to basically see the best part of their army wiped out in the first phase of the war. If for some reason they can get these troops back to other parts of Ukraine and they go into combat again, hard to see what would be left of them after a few weeks.

3) They dont care about the morale of their own forces. This is particularly toxic. If the Russian soldiers believe that they are basically cannon fodder for the leadership, their willingness to fight will decline below what it already is.

4) The Russians are out of ideas. If you are sending troops that have committed some of the worst crimes back into Ukraine, they will only motivate Ukrainian resistance (which has already shown itself to be effective) to even higher levels. Its a stupid idea.

What does it mean? Russia really does not want to fight a long war and Ukraine has a real opportunity. If the Ukrainians can be resupplied and redeployed to meet the Russian redeployments, they can basically waste the only combat force the Russian government believes in.

Thats why its so important to get help to Ukraine now. Give them the opportunity to destroy the Russian forces that will be redeployed from Kyiv and they can force Putin to take a choice he is clearly terrified to make. Fight a long war with conscripts or forces he doesnt trust.

An interesting point worth expanding this thread on. I’ve always tried to imagine a negotiated end to this war as there will have to be one (Ukraine is not conquering Russia). Reality now though is that negotiations are meaningless until…

https://twitter.com/drradchenko/status/1511572967943290881

We’ve had another test of arms in the Donbas. Putin is clearly trying to use military force to save something he can call a victory from the original failure. Until that contest is decided, negotiations can’t decide anything. So keep talking, yes…

But most importantly help Ukraine to militarily succeed in the Donbas by degrading the one force the Russian government trusts. Then negotiate.

Two things to note here. U.K. MOD map also has Russian forces almost all gone from northern Ukraine. They are also putting more stress on the time needed to reequip the withdrawn forces. Sensible. This is not easy. If the Russians send those troops quickly, it’s a sign of panic.

https://twitter.com/jackdetsch/status/1511706423033483274