Western official: "The the withdrawal of forces of Russian forces from northern Ukraine, around Kyiv and around Chernihiv, is...largely complete. There are isolated pockets of Russian forces which will try to make their way back, but are under pressure"
Western official: "We have not yet seen sort of the mass redeployment of those Russian forces [from around Kyiv]. We've seen the early stages of some of the VDV airborne forces starting to make their way to join the forces in around the Donbas". Others need to be replenished.
Western official: 29 Russian BTGs "rendered non-combat effective, so they've had to be either taken out of the line in order to be refurbished and reconstituted, or they've had to be amalgamated with other battalion tactical groups to generate a single group out of...three."
Western official: "obviously, as they've shortened their lines of communication [and] they focus on the area of operations [in Donbas], it gives them the opportunity to concentrate force more effectively—but bringing more forces to bear is still a problem for them."
Western official: "We believe the 9th May [Victory Day] is a significant date [for Russia] given the usual parade [in Moscow]...when you have a political imperative, which drives things in a particular way, you can end up with military disaster as a consequence."
Western official, in response to my question on whether Russian force employment is improving: "even as late as yesterday, we're still seeing single files of Russian armour attempting to advance down roads, and then coming into problems when it's met by by Ukrainian resistance."
Western official: "the threat pace to Kyiv is limited for the foreseeable future. But of course, what we wouldn't like to see is is that assumption meaning that Kiev or the ...north were left undefended, because there still remains a risk of opportunistic activity"
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