Thread by @MarkHertling

What's going on now in eastern Ukraine? A new 🧵

Many reports suggest RU has shifted their next fight to the Donbas.

What can we expect to see in the coming days/weeks/months?

Here's a thread of my "guesses." 1/17

As most know, RU/RU-backed separatist & UKR forces have been fighting in parts of Donetsk & Luhansk Oblast since 2014.

Ukraine regards both Donetsk & Luhansk People's Republic (DPR & LPR) as terrorist organizations (do NOT call them "breakaway republics"). 2/

The fighting is like many "frozen conflicts" RU has stoked in various European countries (Georgia, Moldova, Azerbaijan-Armenia) with their illegal actions.

Much of the line resembles WWI trenches. With intense sniping and shelling since 2014. Thousands killed 3/

By reinforcing these lines, and the 2 shoulders in the N & S, RU hopes to conduct frontal attacks in the Donbas while attempting to surround URK's forces from N & S.

They'll have trouble executing this plan.

But how will the frontal attacks look? 4/

Well, there's already reports of RU attacks last night from within Donetsk.

Reports say RU attempted a "breakthrough" (we'll come back to that word) near Razdolnoye, with a purpose of reaching the Donetsk-Zaporizhia hiway near Bogatyr. (more to that in a minute, too). 5/

I'd say this action REALLY was is a Reconnaissance‐in‐force (RIF).

A RIF is designed to find the enemy’s strength, weakness, dispositions & test their reactions, according to our doctrine (ADRP 3‐90).

See example... 6/

If the RU RIF finds a weak spot, they push through (as shown). If they find strength in UKRs line, they should pull back.

Last night, the RU found UKR strength, but kept going instead of pulling back. UKR reports they engaged & destroyed this small RU tactical attack. 7/

Had the RU RIF found a hole, it would have provided RU with intelligence about what they're facing in the UA. They would've then planned to push other forces through the hole, while holding in other places along the front.

In doctrine, this is called a "Breakthrough." 8/

When RU finds a weak spot, their doctrine in to use LOTS of artillery to make the weak spot bigger and then send lots of fast moving forces (that is, tanks) through.

Holding the "shoulders" with other forces.

The Germans did this in WWII as part of their blitzkrieg doctrine. 9/

My belief, because of what I've seen, is RU hasn't trained or practiced these kinds of maneuvers.

Based on what we've seen, the RU "maneuver" capability, skill of their force, C2 & log support are all extremely weak.

And, they haven't tried this in the Donbas in 8 years. 10/

A bunch of RU generals have been writing about this technique over the last few years.

Here's an interesting piece: internationalmagz.com/articles/milit…

Problem: writing about and doing are two different things. 11/

Also, I'm convinced RU will NOT be able to get the same forces they used in the Kyiv and Kharkiv offensives back into the fight anytime soon, no matter what others say.

Those forces are depleted. Mauled.

Some may fight, but they likely won't be effective. 12/

BTW, before we leave breakthrough, Brusilov & his followers say RU must use massive artillery on enemy positions OR use *battlefield tactical nuclear weapons* to create a breakthrough when gaps are found by the RIF.

Again, theoretical...but that scares the crap out of me. 13/

So, how does UKR counter these offensive actions?

1. be strong everywhere (tough to do)
2. have a good reserve (possible, but also tough)
3. be able to move quickly to counter any attacks.

"Interior lines" I discussed in another thread helps w/ 2 & 3, because of distance 14/

But, UKR must also find ways to be more mobile for this new phase.

First, they'll need very good intelligence about where RU forces are moving.

Then, tanks they've "acquired" from RU and those provided by NATO nations will help. 15/

UA will continue to rely on technological advanced weapons to close any gaps on the front line, and focus on defeating RU's artillery.

They will use territorials and UA to thwart RU advances from the N & S "shoulders" of the Donbas, to ensure no encirclement. 16/

UKR must defend their own supply line, interfere with RU C2, logistics, and movement...

...while also conducting other unconventional operations behind RU front lines.

This 🧵 is about the "front line" tactical fights in the Donbas.

UKR must still deal with civilian assistance, cataloguing war crimes, fighting RU assaults in Crimea, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, etc everywhere else.

Donbas will be a battle of attrition.

UKR is prepared for it.17/17