Thread by @JohnPasalis

“This is very much a housing budget” according to one government source

But if this is a "housing budget" it explains why many Canadians can't afford a home & why things aren't going to get better

Let's take a look at some of the Liberal's policies 🧵
thestar.com/politics/polit…

The Liberals are promising to "ban foreign buyers"

This is not inherently bad, but based on what has been released so far - this policy is more about political pandering than about improving housing affordability 2/
ctvnews.ca/politics/feder…

While there is of course some foreign buying in Canada, they are not the primary cause for high home prices.

The Liberals have just found an easy scapegoat for their failed policies that have been driving up home prices. 3/

But even if they genuinely wanted to curb foreign buying, this 2 year ban has so many loopholes including allowing foreign students (their parents) to speculate in our housing market - it's not going to have any impact

I suspect not having an impact is by design 4/

They have known for years that big corporations are buying up thousands of homes making it harder for first time buyers to enter the market

What are they going to do about that?

Nothing.

OK, they'll study it for another five years so REITs have time to buy more homes 5/

"If you buy and sell a property in under 12 months, you’ll be hit by a tax stiff enough to make you think twice"

This is not a bad policy, but again not a primary driver of rising home prices - if it does happen it's a side effect of rapidly rising prices 6/

There are also likely going to be exemptions for investors who are materially improving/renovating homes.

And of course, first time buyers will be able to save $8K tax free.

Not bad, but home prices are up $300K in 2 years - nobody's savings can keep up with home prices 7/

The Liberals believe they can increase the supply of housing:

"the goals of the housing package are to dramatically increase construction activity and the supply of middle-class new homes"

I wouldn't hold your breath on this one 8/

This is after all the same government that makes a big deal about 41 new homes being built

The recent increase in new construction has more to do with home prices rising 50% in 2 years vs any government policy. 9/

https://twitter.com/BenRabidoux/status/1511359185077817355

Finally, their "home buyers bill of rights" is cute but again unlikely to have any meaningful impact.

A better "bill of rights" would have been to ensure our policy makers don't cause house prices to double in 5 years.

Let's see what else is announced tomorrow /