Thiel: "The finance gerontocracy that runs the country through whatever silly virtue signaling/hate factory term like ESG they have versus what I would call -- what we have to think of as a revolutionary youth movement.”
Thiel calls Buffett, Fink and Dimon the “gerontocracy.”
Thiel: “ESG is just a hate factory. It’s a factory for naming enemies, and we should not be allowing them to do that,. When you think ESG, you should be thinking Chinese Communist Party."
Thiel calls Buffett the “the sociopathic grandpa from Omaha.”
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Lots of false guesstimates on CRE market: the facts - size of CRE market is $11 trillion, $4.5 trillion in debt outstanding, banks account for 38% (small banks 28%, large banks 7%). The bulk of small bank deposit growth has gone into CRE
Why are some banks - like JPM - paying 0.01% on deposits? Because they don't need them, because they are still flooded with Fed reserves on which they collect hundreds of millions in interest daily. In fact, JPM is trying to slash its retail deposits which are a cost center
Other banks, mostly small regional banks, have seen their reserve exposure slide thanks to QT, and are increasingly reliant on depositors for funding. 88% of SIVB's total liabilities were deposits. Meanwhile, loan/deposit creation has collapsed due to imminent recession.
Big banks - which are not reliant on depositor funding - are incentivized to spark bank runs which will cripple small/regional banks. It's why JPMorgan was poaching SVB depositors on Thursday (per BBG).
Dallas Fed respondent: "We expect recession in the second half of this year. We already had a first round of layoffs. We are looking at each employee very carefully to learn who may have to be in a second wave of layoffs, if and when business slows down again."
Dallas Fed respondent: "It seems like someone turned off the spigot, as we have gotten stupid slow, as have others in our industry. We are not sure if it’s the Fed jacking with interest rates or else some sort of cyclical slowdown but it feels like business has ground to a halt."
Dallas Fed respondent: "February has been a slow month; it is hard to know why, but our outlook has worsened for both our business and retail activity in general."
Trust the Dallas Fed to publish redpilled respondents:
"Current federal policies are killing small businesses. From diesel prices to shortages, everything costs so much more. "
And more:
"We have a bleak outlook until the Federal Reserve stops interest hikes and the administration seeks energy independence."
And some more:
"The biggest issues facing our company are increased regulations and contact from federal, state and local entities regarding a variety of topics. Often it feels as a small business that the government does not want us to succeed."
"Never doubt the ability of the Federal Reserve to crush the economy when they intervene to stop inflation." - Dallas Fed survey respondent
"There is nothing positive in the economic outlook. The Federal Reserve should pause and let prior rate increases filter through before implementing further increases or they [will] overdo the contraction and make it harder to recover." - Another Dallas Fed respondent
"The rapid pace of wage growth is putting significant pressure on the business to outsource manufacturing outside the U.S." - a third respondent
“The pace of US economic growth has slowed sharply in June, with deteriorating forward-looking indicators setting the scene for an economic contraction in the third quarter." - PMI's Chris Williamson
"many services firms are now seeing households increasingly struggle with the rising cost of living, with producers of non-essential goods seeing a similar drop in orders."
"“There has consequently been a remarkable drop in demand for goods and services during June compared to prior months. "