Lots of false guesstimates on CRE market: the facts - size of CRE market is $11 trillion, $4.5 trillion in debt outstanding, banks account for 38% (small banks 28%, large banks 7%). The bulk of small bank deposit growth has gone into CRE Small banks account for 70% of total CRE loans

zerohedge.com/markets/nowher…

Why are some banks - like JPM - paying 0.01% on deposits? Because they don't need them, because they are still flooded with Fed reserves on which they collect hundreds of millions in interest daily. In fact, JPM is trying to slash its retail deposits which are a cost center Other banks, mostly small regional banks, have seen their reserve exposure slide thanks to QT, and are increasingly reliant on depositors for funding. 88% of SIVB's total liabilities were deposits. Meanwhile, loan/deposit creation has collapsed due to imminent recession.

Dallas Fed respondent: "We expect recession in the second half of this year. We already had a first round of layoffs. We are looking at each employee very carefully to learn who may have to be in a second wave of layoffs, if and when business slows down again." Dallas Fed respondent: "It seems like someone turned off the spigot, as we have gotten stupid slow, as have others in our industry. We are not sure if it’s the Fed jacking with interest rates or else some sort of cyclical slowdown but it feels like business has ground to a halt."

Trust the Dallas Fed to publish redpilled respondents:

"Current federal policies are killing small businesses. From diesel prices to shortages, everything costs so much more. " And more:

"We have a bleak outlook until the Federal Reserve stops interest hikes and the administration seeks energy independence."

"Never doubt the ability of the Federal Reserve to crush the economy when they intervene to stop inflation." - Dallas Fed survey respondent "There is nothing positive in the economic outlook. The Federal Reserve should pause and let prior rate increases filter through before implementing further increases or they [will] overdo the contraction and make it harder to recover." - Another Dallas Fed respondent

Q3 recession folks:

“The pace of US economic growth has slowed sharply in June, with deteriorating forward-looking indicators setting the scene for an economic contraction in the third quarter." - PMI's Chris Williamson "many services firms are now seeing households increasingly struggle with the rising cost of living, with producers of non-essential goods seeing a similar drop in orders."

Thiel: "The finance gerontocracy that runs the country through whatever silly virtue signaling/hate factory term like ESG they have versus what I would call -- what we have to think of as a revolutionary youth movement.” Thiel calls Buffett, Fink and Dimon the “gerontocracy.”

Goldman Trader: "The Past Few Weeks Have Poured Kerosene On A Tectonic Shift That's Taken Shape Over The Past Six Years" zerohedge.com/markets/goldma… "I’ve been banging away at this craft for 23 years, and the past few weeks rank right up there with some of the highest velocity periods for markets that I’ve ever seen." - Pasquariello

PRESIDENT BIDEN WILL SOON ISSUE AN EXECUTIVE ORDER THAT WILL PROHIBIT NEW INVESTMENT, TRADE, AND FINANCING BY U.S. PERSONS TO, FROM, OR IN THE SO-CALLED DNR AND LNR REGIONS OF UKRAINE WHITE HOUSE SAYS WE WILL ALSO SOON ANNOUNCE ADDITIONAL MEASURES RELATED TO TODAY’S BLATANT VIOLATION OF RUSSIA’S INTERNATIONAL COMMITMENTS

"Participants generally noted that, given their individual outlooks for the economy, the labor market, and inflation, it may become warranted to increase the federal funds rate sooner or at a faster pace than participants had earlier anticipated." - FOMC "Some participants also noted that it could be appropriate to begin to reduce the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet relatively soon after beginning to raise the federal funds rate."

*Clarida: 'We Are Clearly a Ways Away From Considering Raising Interest Rates' *Clarida: 'I Would Not Consider a Repeat Performance Next Year a Policy Success'

"the latest headlines regarding Evergrande likely suggest that housing activity may deteriorate further in the absence of the government providing a clear path toward an eventual resolution for Evergrande" - Goldman "Evergrande is large (total assets of RMB2tn, or 2% of China’s GDP) and complex (with over 200 offshore and nearly 2000 onshore wholly and non-wholly owned subsidiaries)." - Goldman

Beige Book: "Banking contacts cited increased demand for mortgages as the key driver of overall loan demand. " Beige Book: "commercial real estate conditions continued to deteriorate in many Districts, with the exception being warehouse and industrial space where construction and leasing activity remained steady.":