The ruble is now worth more than before the invasion. Why is this happening with all the sanctions? 1/n 
Well, Russia runs a substantial current account surplus. So they have a lot of goods to sell, and sanctions have so for not targeted Russian exports to a substantial degree.
https://twitter.com/RobinBrooksIIF/status/1512072895073116170
At the same time, Russia is forcing its exporters to sell 80% of foreign currency they make and buy rubles. The combination of these facts ensure there is a large amount of buyers of rubles. I would not be surprised to see the ruble continue to appreciate
Moreover, sanctions have targeted trade with Russia, but more focused on Russian imports. It is now substantially harder for Russia to buy the imports they need from the West, whether consumer goods, intermediate goods or machinery
Russia has also made it impossible for foreigners to sell their financial assets. If you have shares in Moscow, you're largely stuck with them. So less imports, and capital controls. That means there are fewer sellers of rubles. That makes the ruble appreciate further
Does this mean sanction don't work? No, because as mentioned sanctions so far have largely targeted imports, both in goods and services. The aim is to disrupt the Russian supply chain and the Russian economy by creating shortages.
Russia has a large and increasing current account surplus, but is finding it hard to actually use the foreign reserves they are accumulating. Russia has taken steps to avoid a financial crisis, but it's not clear whether they can get around trade sanctions
The logical step for Russia would be to buy from China, and the question is to what extent China can actually step in. There are some real obstacles:
Supply chains to European Russia are a lot long, the Chinese product mix is different from the Western one and there is also the fear of secondary sanctions, which might make Chinese companies hesitant
The nature of the sanctions put in place is in any case such that it will take months to evaluate the extent of disruptions. I think they will be considerable, but over the long run Russia should be able to compensate in part, at least for consumer products.
It will probably be more difficult for specialized machinery and high technology, including components for the military industry.
I do think that judging the effect of the sanctions by the exchange rate is a mistake. The ruble is behaving as you'd expect. /End
Addendum, I think this is right
https://twitter.com/mifi_https/status/1512407962542825478
This was written very quickly, so I apologize for all the typos!
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