Thread by @ClimateAudit

bombing of civilians at Kramatorsk rail station by Tochka missile was criminal. But let's look at available data before uncritically accepting claims from Zelensky regime. The tail section of missile was found in parkette to WSW of rail station.

Google street view from east entrance of rail station looking south supports geolocation of tail section to WSW of station. google.com/maps/@48.72605…

the shadows in the picture are consistent with morning sun in Ukraine being to the ESE and the photo being taken looking south. Both the direction of the rocket itself and the direction from section to station indicate a WSW origin for the rocket

for all plausible distances, territory to the WSW is held by Ukraine - a point that has been made by others but which I wanted to check out. Russian MOD is reported

https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1512395548552224770

to have attributed origin of rocket to Dobropolye, a village about 45 km to the WSW.

needless to say, there is argument back and forth on this issue. See for example

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1512445329161191425

in my quick survey, I haven't seen any counter-arguments that establish attribution to Russia - only that attribution of origin in Ukraine zones is not established by "metadata".

most such arguments focus on orientation of tail section itself as opposed to the direction indicated by line from tail section to head section, though the latter seems to me (as non-expert) as the more convincing.

unsurprisingly, tail section of Tochka-U in Kramatorsk looks similar to tail section of Tochka-U missile sent by Ukraine against Donetsk city.

a lot of shrapnel generated from cluster bomb delivered by Tochka-U in Donetsk city attack. Presumably munition in Kramatorsk was similar.

serial number of Kramatorsk missile Ш91579 has been located in one of the photos and firmly linked to Ukraine inventory. See

https://twitter.com/MaxvanderWerff/status/1512777674930155524

Attribution of Kramatorsk missile to Zelensky regime now appears to be conclusive.

neo-Nazi Ukrainian Pravy Sektor previously attested to have written "For children of Ukraine" on artillery shells - the message on Ukrainian Tochka-U used to bomb civilians in Kramatorsk

@MaxvanderWerff has published some new Ukrainian serial numbers:
W915516:

https://twitter.com/MaxvanderWerff/status/1513021104553873408

; Ш915622:

https://twitter.com/MaxvanderWerff/status/1513021620734300161

.

initially, Ukrainian leaders Pavlo Lyrylenko, the local governor, and Zelensky adviser Oleksiy Arestyvich falsely or fraudulently stated that Iskander missile (unique to Russia) had been used at Kramatorsk. This framed opening narrative.

During the morning, as pictures became available, commenters pointed out that the missile was actually Tochka-U, the missile used by Ukraine - including at the attack on civilians at Donetsk city on March 14 (which did not interest Western media)

the false identification of rocket as Iskander enabled the narrative of a "Russian" attack to become established. So later, when rocket identified as Tochka, increasingly elaborate theories were advocated to maintain attribution to Russia, despite Tochka pointing to Ukraine.

the false information about Iskander missiles reported by Pravda Ukraine here: pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/…

it will not surprise readers that CNN reported the fake news that attack was by Iskander missiles used by Russia, not the Tochka missiles used by Ukraine
cnn.com/2022/04/08/eur…

a few commenters have argued that the serial numbers don't PROVE anything, that it's equally possible that W91579 went to Russia, even if W91566, W91565, W91511 and others are firmly attribted to Ukraine. But there's an important statistical error that these commenters are making

to state obvious, serial numbers are not RANDOMLY assigned. If they were, then we wouldn't be able to conclude anything, but they weren't. They were assigned in order.

second, rockets included in a shipment batch would not randomly chosen from an infinite inventory, but from an actual inventory (or to order) in which serial numbers would be related.

information that Ukraine was in possession of Tochkas W91566, W91565, W915611 (among others) is prior information that is highly relevant to attribution of W91579. It's theoretically possible that there was a break and appearance of W91579 in same close quarters was coincidence

But for that to be true, there has to be a pretty amazing coincidence i.e. statistically improbable. When combined with information from trajectory - again not total PROOF, but strongly indicative, and similarity of Kramatorsk attack to Mar 14 Donetsk attack by Ukraine

IMO the practical odds that rocket was not fired by Ukraine are minuscule.

Oleksiy Arestovych, the important Zelensky adviser, who was jointly responsible for original fraudulent story of Iskander missile at Kramatorsk, admired ISIS cruelty techniques and tactics in interview a couple of years ago

Arestovych admired ISIS commanders as "wise and successful commanders" who thought through "detail, even the degree of cruelty" and that "cruelty for show" was "a wise strategy, taking their particular interests into account".

Arestovych said that governance according to the precepts of ISIS - "terrorism, middle age cruelty, the burning of people, shooting and cutting off heads" was "absolutely a network of the future".

Arestovych played a leading role in attribution of Kramatorsk to Russia, beginning with the fraudulent information about "Iskander" missiles. Would Arestovych have any scruples about sacrificing some Russian-speaking residents of Donets oblast? I doubt it.

uatv.ua/en/view-from-b…
Arestovych appears to have led Ukraine visit to Biden admin in Sep 2021 in which Kyiv regime's refusal to implement Minsk agreements was reinforced by Biden neocons.

this entire Sep 2021 interview is worth reading. At the time, Kyiv regime was shelling Avdiivka in Donbas and feeling smug about losses among Donbas civilians. Feckless Biden admin, then reeling from Afghan fiasco, seems to have egged them on, rather than trying to promote peace.

after reading this disturbing interview with ISIS-admiring Zelensky adviser Arestovych, it occurred to me that it's entirely likely that Zelensky is to Arestovych as Justin Trudeau was to Gerald Butts.

both Trudeau and Zelensky are actors. Canadians know that Justin Trudeau is a featherweight with intellectual depth of a minnow, but he is skilful at delivering poses, photo ops and word salads. An actor. Why should we expect anything more of Zelensky?

While we can learn nothing about Zelensky from his past political reflections (since, like Trudeau, there are none), maybe we can learn about his administration from the unscrupulous Arestovych, who admired ISIS tactics measured as political theatre.