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Apr 9 • 3 tweets • 1 min read
"That changed in mid-2021. 'From summer we saw a small group of senior people planning for a full military invasion of the whole country,' explains one Western intelligence official." The decision to rush the BARS reservists program was another indication.
bbc.com/news/world-eur…
"The first time some Russian officials were told that their country might be seriously intending to act against Ukraine was when they heard it from the director of the CIA,"
"Western spies also correctly predicted that Moscow had misplaced confidence about the reception it would encounter. 'They genuinely believed there would be flags out to welcome them,' says a Western intelligence officer." 3/

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More from @RALee85

Rob Lee Profile picture
Apr 10
A good article by Yaroslav. Narrowing its focus on the Donbas with fewer large cities will play into the Russian military's strengths, but Ukraine can also afford to retreat to hold more defensible areas. The main objective for Ukraine is to not allow its forces to be encircled.
Ukraine doesn't have to let Russia dictate the direction of the fight. It can attack Russian forces in Kherson, northern Kharkiv, and even conduct attacks along the northeastern Ukrainian border with Russia to stretch Russian forces. 2/
I think Russia will likely achieve some tactical, possibly operational, successes and extend its control over the Donbas, but as long as Ukraine doesn't allow Russia to cut off a substantial share of its forces, I doubt Russia can achieve significant strategic gains. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Apr 8
A Russian Air Force MiG-31BM interceptor crashed in Leningrad. The crew ejected.
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
I believe this is the third Russian Air Force aircraft lost in 2022 not due to the war in Ukraine. A MiG-31 rolled off the runway in January. 2/
A Russian Air Force An-26 transport aircraft crashed in Voronezh on February 24. 3/
tass.com/defense/1410539
Read 4 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Apr 8
The BBC reports that the Southern Military District will now be in charge of the operation in Ukraine. This makes sense for a few reasons: 1) its commander, Army General Alexander Dvornikov, outranks the other district commanders who are Colonel-Generals.
bbc.com/news/live/worl…
Dvornikov has also been the commander of his district the longest, since 2016, and the Donbas is a priority for that district. This also makes sense because the focus of Russia's operation is now on S/SE Ukraine, which has been the Southern Military District's responsibility. 2/
I think the Western official is wrong to focus on Dvornikov's time in Syria. All of the district commanders commanded Russian forces in Syria, and Zhuravlyov and Chayko both commanded forces there twice and have more experience in Syria. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Apr 8
Video of a Russian T-72B3 tank firing on Ukrainian positions in Mariupol.
t.me/milchronicles/…
Russian naval infantry T-72B3 tank and BTR-82A in Mariupol. 2/
t.me/milchronicles/…
Third party of the video showing Russian naval infantry T-72B3 tanks and BTR-82A in Mariupol. 3/
t.me/milchronicles/…
Read 4 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Apr 8
Awful images from the railway station in Kramatorsk this morning after it was reportedly struck by two missiles (looks like Tockha-U 9M79-1 tactical ballistic missiles). Initial reports are that more than 30 were killed.
facebook.com/pavlokyrylenko…
hromadske.ua/posts/okupanti…
2/
3/
Read 6 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Apr 8
Video of destroyed or abandoned Russian equipment in Moshchun, including a BREM-1, a pontoon bridge, BMD vehicles, and an IMR-2.
facebook.com/igor.lutsenko/…
Actually, it looks like an IMR-3M and an additional destroyed VDV BMD-2. 2/
Destroyed Russian BMD-2 vehicles. 3/
facebook.com/igor.lutsenko/…
Read 4 tweets

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