Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 9 15 tweets 6 min read
This is a logistical thread🧵on pre-fabricated concrete structures and gravel for maintaining road lines of communications in a kleptocracy.

Please look closely at the Ukrainian pre-cast concrete drainage culverts being used for a temporary bridge below.
1/
When Russia was conducting it's build up before invading Ukraine in Dec 2021-Feb 2022 I was looking for a lot of gravel, sand & pre-cast concrete structures.

I've mentioned this before.👇
2/
You can do a lot of things with pre-cast concrete.

It is a mark of a modern economy to see a lot of these structures as it indicates highly mechanized productivity to avoid labor costs.
3/
Pre-cast concrete structures are how you get economies of scale & speed in major civil engineering projects like roads, bridges & the drainage for both.

The Russians used these pre-cast concrete structure building techniques to build the Kerch Straits bridge into Crimea.
4/
Yet to date, we have not seen anything like that temporary Ukrainian gravel & pre-cast concrete structure bridge from the Russian Army anywhere in occupied Ukraine.

I wrote this March 5th & it is still true👇
5/
Suppliers of pre-cast concrete structures have literal catalogs of standard structures they can sell from stock.

So why hasn't the Russian Army reached back into the Russian economy for such structures?
6/
It's not like the Russians are lacking for Ukrainian fording sites where building similar temporary bridge structures would be both useful & hard to destroy via artillery raids.

Unlike the floating bridge structures the Russian Army are using👇
7/
This is another example where a Ukrainian style pre-cast concrete structures & gravel temporary bridge would have been a better option. Simply because you can't sink it with fragments from Ukrainian MLRS artillery rockets.

8/
I would have expected the LNR & DNR forces to have been using temporary bridging techniques similar to the Ukrainians simply because the Russian Army didn't provide floating bridges to them.
9/
Yet they too seem to be utterly lacking in gravel & pre-cast concrete structures which the Ukrainian civilian economy is capable of throwing together near-overnight.

10/
The general inability of the Russian Army to use pre-cast concrete structures that the Russian state has demonstrated it can produce for priority state projects like the Kerch Straits bridge suggests a number of things.

11/
o There are are few/no pre-cast concrete structure vendors in the Russian economy.

o If there are such vendors, they have no stocks of pre-made structures available for fear they will have their stock stolen by the state...
12/
...or destroyed by Russian thieves looking for scrap steel to sell.

Whatever the case, the idea that Putin can mobilize the Russian economy for a long war of attrition with Ukraine has to be viewed with great suspicion.

13/
Kleptocracies don't stop stealing because there is a war on.

The inability of the Russian State & economy to use pre-cast concrete structures outside of 'high imperial focus by Putin' priority state projects like the Kerch Straits bridge suggests any sort
14/
... of Russian general mobilization will fail because of Kleptocratic thievery @kamilkazani has extensively detailed.

15/End

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Trent Telenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @TrentTelenko

Apr 11
Alright folks, this is going to be a long logistical thread🧵 where I will try and make the case that that advanced US weapons systems like the Patriot SAM, M1A1 Abrams tank & F-16 with AMRAAM can be both rapidly transitioned & effectively used by Ukraine.

It won't be cheap
1/ ImageImageImage
...to do.

I going to walk you all through about 37 years of US military history (1985-2022) with an emphasis on the concepts of "Contractor Logistical Support" and "Private Military Corporations" with a bit of history involving the personnel policies of Claire Chennault's
2/ Image
Flying Tigers thrown in.

Trust me, it's needed.😉

In the late Cold War year of 1985 LOGCAP or “Logistics Civil Augmentation Program” was established primarily to pre-plan for contingencies and to “leverage existing civilian resources.”

Basically, we are talking a contract
3/ Image
Read 24 tweets
Apr 10
Western Intelligence 🧵

There were eight years of US, UK & other NATO training teams in Ukraine between 2014 & 2022 teaching mechanized logistics as well as modern anti-Russian tactics.👇
1/
So there were literally hundreds of NATO servicemen who could have been debriefed about Ukrainian Armed Forces effectiveness and what Ukrainians know about Russian logistics.

2/
Given the US DoD computer model predicting the outcome of a Russian invasion of Ukraine -- USING THE MOST UP TO DATE INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATES -- predicted Ukraine would fall in 72-to-96 hours.

Do you think anyone from the US CIA, DIA, US Military intelligence or their NATO
3/
Read 12 tweets
Apr 10
Alright boys and girls, we are going for another wild ride in modern logistics & intelligence🧵

I want you to pay attention to the Russian artillery ammo & it's wood box packaging because I'm going to visually explain why it shows pre-mechanized logistics of the early 1930's
1/
The twitter denizen @thinkdefence has a wonderful blog site that explains lots of things logistical, combat engineering & UK military procurement.

One of his efforts is a multi-part post on modern mechanized logistics with many photos.
2/
thinkdefence.co.uk/2014/11/boxes-…
To quote him:

"...it is preferred to handle stores as ‘unit loads’ in the most appropriate box or container on a sliding scale, for example;

Ammunition box >> Multiple ammunition boxes on a pallet >> Multiple ammunition boxes on multiple pallets inside an ISO container"

3/ Image
Read 20 tweets
Apr 10
If you have not read this ISW 🧵thread today you need to.

I've a comments to add for my own🧵.

ISW Short form:

The Russian military has hit the trained manpower wall until well into June 2022.👇
A major "proxy" supporting this ISW thread surfaced today.

Three Russian Army lieutenants were killed acting as the driver, gunner and commander of a BMP infantry combat vehicle.

See👇
2/
Lieutenants normally act as commanders of three vehicle platoons of Tanks, BMP's or BTR's.

That is, one commander for 3 vehicles and 8-to-19 men.

So, three lieutenants would command all the Mechanized Platoons of a Motor Rifle Company.
3/ Image
Read 14 tweets
Apr 9
When I talk about 'Economic incentives in the Russian economy.'

This is a good explanation of what it means, further expanded in a 🧵 below👇

1/
It is also a an explanation in a tweet why Ukraine is less corrupt than Russia.

And that the DC & EU Defense analysts who said it was the reverse showed they were idiots

Look, the Euromaidan revolution heavily disrupted the Donbas Russian speaking predatory wealth extraction
2/
...mafia around then-president Viktor Yanukovych.

They lost the ability to do further predatory wealth extraction.

This is one of the reasons why Ukraine became such a force on the world grain markets.

Ukrainian businessmen could import foreign capital equipment with the
3/
Read 7 tweets
Apr 9
This is a really astute comment that fleshes out a thought in my pre-cast concrete structures 🧵 thread.

Prestige projects like the Kerch Straits bridge beget prestige infrastructure like beam launchers.

1/
If you don't know what a 'beam launcher' is, internet searches can be your friend.

Here are several pictures of Chinese beam launchers.

China has spent a lot of money on developing high productivity civil infrastructure construction techniques people in the West have
2/
...simply ignored.

Infrastructure looks the way it does because of the tools used to build it.

The extensive use of pre-cast concrete structures requires specific mechanized tools in your economy to move & place it.

3/
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(