Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 9 7 tweets 4 min read
When I talk about 'Economic incentives in the Russian economy.'

This is a good explanation of what it means, further expanded in a 🧵 below👇

1/
It is also a an explanation in a tweet why Ukraine is less corrupt than Russia.

And that the DC & EU Defense analysts who said it was the reverse showed they were idiots

Look, the Euromaidan revolution heavily disrupted the Donbas Russian speaking predatory wealth extraction
2/
...mafia around then-president Viktor Yanukovych.

They lost the ability to do further predatory wealth extraction.

This is one of the reasons why Ukraine became such a force on the world grain markets.

Ukrainian businessmen could import foreign capital equipment with the
3/
expectation that the predatory wealth extraction wouldn't happen when they improved their grain harvest & export infrastructure.

Since then-president Viktor Yanukovych was a creature of Putin. The wealth extracted by the Donbas Russian speaking Ukrainian Mafia was shared

4/
...with Putin.

This, I think, is the real reason Putin is so mad with the Euromaidan Ukrainians.

They stole from him his 'rightful predatory wealth extraction mafia graft' that Yanukovych was delivering.

5/
This, BTW, doesn't mean all predatory wealth extraction was removed from the Ukrainian economy. The election of Zelensky in 2019 shows it was not.

The thing is, Ukraine was building it's non-corrupt 'civic virtue' in that 2014-2022 time period which, in the end, was the

6/
...biggest threat to Putin's Russia.

Freedom anywhere is a threat to tyranny everywhere.

And the fate of Yanukovych was something Putin could not let stand. Hence, the latest Russian invasion of Ukraine.

7/end

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More from @TrentTelenko

Apr 11
This is the best video I have seen out of Ukraine demonstrating the military phenomena of "Target fixation."

The UA Igla operator doesn't move a hair when the blast wave from the dropped Russian bomb rolls over his #2.

He tuned out all other reality to make the shot.

1/
Then after the missile departs, #1 moved his assets out of the way to avoid counter fire.

This is why cohesive teams are better on the battlefield.

Other servicemen can keep 'situational awareness' while a heavy weapons operator takes his shot.

Look at the #2's head
2/
It is swiveling around looking for threats while the Igla #1 is hunting a Russian aircraft.

Doing this consistently & effectively in combat takes good leadership & training.

All that 'military stuff' mindlessly drilling these actions over and over again is what a
3/
Read 4 tweets
Apr 11
Alright folks, this is going to be a long logistical thread🧵 where I will try and make the case that that advanced US weapons systems like the Patriot SAM, M1A1 Abrams tank & F-16 with AMRAAM can be both rapidly transitioned & effectively used by Ukraine.

It won't be cheap
1/ ImageImageImage
...to do.

I going to walk you all through about 37 years of US military history (1985-2022) with an emphasis on the concepts of "Contractor Logistical Support" and "Private Military Corporations" with a bit of history involving the personnel policies of Claire Chennault's
2/ Image
Flying Tigers thrown in.

Trust me, it's needed.😉

In the late Cold War year of 1985 LOGCAP or “Logistics Civil Augmentation Program” was established primarily to pre-plan for contingencies and to “leverage existing civilian resources.”

Basically, we are talking a contract
3/ Image
Read 24 tweets
Apr 10
Western Intelligence 🧵

There were eight years of US, UK & other NATO training teams in Ukraine between 2014 & 2022 teaching mechanized logistics as well as modern anti-Russian tactics.👇
1/
So there were literally hundreds of NATO servicemen who could have been debriefed about Ukrainian Armed Forces effectiveness and what Ukrainians know about Russian logistics.

2/
Given the US DoD computer model predicting the outcome of a Russian invasion of Ukraine -- USING THE MOST UP TO DATE INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATES -- predicted Ukraine would fall in 72-to-96 hours.

Do you think anyone from the US CIA, DIA, US Military intelligence or their NATO
3/
Read 12 tweets
Apr 10
Alright boys and girls, we are going for another wild ride in modern logistics & intelligence🧵

I want you to pay attention to the Russian artillery ammo & it's wood box packaging because I'm going to visually explain why it shows pre-mechanized logistics of the early 1930's
1/
The twitter denizen @thinkdefence has a wonderful blog site that explains lots of things logistical, combat engineering & UK military procurement.

One of his efforts is a multi-part post on modern mechanized logistics with many photos.
2/
thinkdefence.co.uk/2014/11/boxes-…
To quote him:

"...it is preferred to handle stores as ‘unit loads’ in the most appropriate box or container on a sliding scale, for example;

Ammunition box >> Multiple ammunition boxes on a pallet >> Multiple ammunition boxes on multiple pallets inside an ISO container"

3/ Image
Read 20 tweets
Apr 10
If you have not read this ISW 🧵thread today you need to.

I've a comments to add for my own🧵.

ISW Short form:

The Russian military has hit the trained manpower wall until well into June 2022.👇
A major "proxy" supporting this ISW thread surfaced today.

Three Russian Army lieutenants were killed acting as the driver, gunner and commander of a BMP infantry combat vehicle.

See👇
2/
Lieutenants normally act as commanders of three vehicle platoons of Tanks, BMP's or BTR's.

That is, one commander for 3 vehicles and 8-to-19 men.

So, three lieutenants would command all the Mechanized Platoons of a Motor Rifle Company.
3/ Image
Read 14 tweets
Apr 9
This is a really astute comment that fleshes out a thought in my pre-cast concrete structures 🧵 thread.

Prestige projects like the Kerch Straits bridge beget prestige infrastructure like beam launchers.

1/
If you don't know what a 'beam launcher' is, internet searches can be your friend.

Here are several pictures of Chinese beam launchers.

China has spent a lot of money on developing high productivity civil infrastructure construction techniques people in the West have
2/
...simply ignored.

Infrastructure looks the way it does because of the tools used to build it.

The extensive use of pre-cast concrete structures requires specific mechanized tools in your economy to move & place it.

3/
Read 7 tweets

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