Why do so many Russian-speakers support Putin and this war? Still. Even in Ukraine (though their number is declining). And in other former satellites, or even Canada and the US. Why? How? WHY?
It’s not just the Kremlin propaganda. Let me tell you a deeply personal story. 1/n
When Russian missiles hit my hometown of Odesa on Feb 24, my mom jumped on the first bus out of the country. Her obvious destination was Moldova—because of geographical proximity, but also, because our family lived there until 1995 when we moved to Ukraine.
My mom has a network of friends there—Russian-speakers who, unlike our family, still live in Moldova. From the bus, she called her old friend—I’ll call her Tanya—who still lives in Moldova, and asked if she could spend the night—she could only find a hotel room for the day after.
Tanya was irritated. It was her birthday, and my mom’s unexpected visit was at an bad time. The Russian invasion shook up the entire world, forcing millions of Ukrainians to walk over the border with Moldova in the middle of winter—and Tanya was having a party!
Tanya is not a monster (at least not fulltime)—she is a highly educated woman that plays the piano and casually quotes Russian literature in everyday conversations. But if you ask her about the Bucha massacre, she’ll tell you it didn’t happen.
There are millions like her in Moldova, Ukraine, Russia itself, and even in Western countries like Germany, Canada and the US. We call them the "deceived generation," the last victims of Soviet propaganda.
The break-up of the USSR marked the start of nation-building (actually re-building), pitting Russian minorities against the ethnic majorities. After more than 50 years of repression (think Bucha), the ethnic majorities finally got a say in the politics of their own states.
This nation-building consisted of downplaying or outright rejecting everything Soviet (read Russian) in favor of national (Moldovan, Ukrainian), and the corresponding change in the distribution of power and wealth.
All of a sudden, ethnic Russians who refused to learn the national language, started getting passed over for promotions in favor of those (including ethnic Russians) who spoke the national language.
In Moldova where I lived, everything around me—TV programming, store signs, street signs, and ever street names—changed from Russian to Romanian.
Other changes included an increase in the hours of Romanian (in schools for Russian-speakers, like the one I attended), as well as the content of literature and history classes.
I was a child, so none of this was a big deal. I quickly picked up Romanian, as children do. For the Russian-speaking adults, however, it was not so easy. It is difficult to learn a completely new language as an adult. But the real obstacle was the hubris.
Decades of Soviet propaganda (backed with repression) taught the ethnic Russians about their undeniable superiority over everyone else. Why should they learn some backward language like Romanian or Ukrainian if Russian is the “purest and the most beautiful language”?
How and why should they accept a government made up of non-Russians? And anyway, there was no point in trying, because Russia was going to come back and re-absorb all the former satellites soon enough, setting everything back how it was.
I kid you not, these were the conversations I listened to as a kid in our Russian-speaking circle of friends. More surprisingly, these are the conversations I still hear (even from my own relatives) today, 30 years later.
These people still hope that Russia will come to save them from the “inferior” national majorities AND give them their coveted Russian pension. These people are still waiting for Russia to give back the money they lost (na knijke) when the Soviet Union broke up.
These people did not cause the Russian invasion—contrary to what they think, protecting them is the last thing on Putin’s mind (he doesn’t actually want to pay them pensions). But these people are complicit in the crimes being committed against Ukrainians.
This is a story about falling victims to the most brazen bank fraud yet, proudly facilitated by #Rogers—Canada’s cellphone behemoth—and #CIBC—Canada’s major bank. @Rogers @CIBC @TorontoStar @globeandmail @rcmpgrcpolice
Yesterday around 4 pm, a guy named Eugene walked into a #Rogers store in Edmonton, Alberta, claimed he was my husband and that he lost his phone and convinced the #Rogers employee to switch my husband’s phone number over to him.
A few minutes later, this Eugene walked into the #Windemere #CIBC branch in Edmonton and used this stolen number to access our bank account.
Declaring mobilization was a risky gamble that may lead to Putin’s demise. But not because it is unpopular with the public.
Mobilization set up for failure the hardliners within Putin’s inner circle, the very group that had clamored for it. Once it fails to turn the war around, they will face a choice between taking the fall or turning against their leader.
In order to stay in power, any leader, even Putin must maintain the support of some proportion of the constituents. For autocratic leaders, like Putin, this means securing continued support of his inner circle, whether through policy, private payoffs.
About the visa ban proposal: If the goal is to implement a policy that would punish the supporters of Putin’s regime, rather than just lashing out, then there are several points to consider. #StandWithUkraine
Putin’s supporters (other than the oligarchs) vacation in Sochi and Crimea, not in Europe. On the other hand, an overwhelming majority of Russians, who do vacation in Europe, do not support Putin or the war. In fact, these Russians hate Putin second most, after Ukrainians.
These Russians—and there are tens of millions of them—are in fact Ukraine’s biggest sympathizers. A travel ban will lower these people’s quality of life, but how does this help Ukraine?
The significance of today’s attacks in Crimea is so much more than destroying Russian air cover for the battle for Kherson. That the US signed off on Ukraine striking a target in Crimea is a major game-changer in this war.
Whereas it previously looked like Crimea was off-limits, today’s attacks showed that may not be the case. It’s too early to tell whether this was an isolated incident—perhaps Ukraine made a case that destroying this airfield was tactically crucial for taking back Kherson.
But if Crimea is actually on the table, if the US is on board with Ukraine taking it back, that changes everything. Not just for Ukraine. For Putin and his hold on power.
It’s natural to be worried about the threat of a nuclear war, especially with all the rhetoric coming out of Russia. Here is some analysis from the perspective of research on authoritarian regimes, war outcomes, and international bargaining.
The bottom line is that the threat of nuclear escalation is low, no matter how this war ends for Russia.
Putin is NOT cornered. He does NOT need an offramp to save face. He is NOT going to lash out and nuke the world—even if Ukrainian forces kick his troops all the way out of Ukraine, including Donbas and Crimea.
A suicide epidemic among Russian gas oligarchs? 1/4
April 20, 2022--Vladislav Avayev, former Vice President for Gazprombank, allegedly shot his wife and daughter, then himself. skynews.com.au/australia-news…
April 19, 2022--Sergey Protosenya, former deputy chairman of Russian gas giant Novatek, found hanged at his house, his wife and daughter dead of stab wounds. newsweek.com/russian-oligar…
February, 25, 2022-- Alexander Tyulyakov, top-level manager of Gazprom, found hanged in his garage ruscrime.com/politics/what-…