Assoc Prof of PolSci, @UofT_PolSci, statistics, network analysis, spatial statistics, terrorism, human rights, repressive regimes. Views are my own.
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Mar 19 • 40 tweets • 6 min read
This is a story about falling victims to the most brazen bank fraud yet, proudly facilitated by #Rogers—Canada’s cellphone behemoth—and #CIBC—Canada’s major bank. @Rogers @CIBC @TorontoStar @globeandmail @rcmpgrcpolice
Yesterday around 4 pm, a guy named Eugene walked into a #Rogers store in Edmonton, Alberta, claimed he was my husband and that he lost his phone and convinced the #Rogers employee to switch my husband’s phone number over to him.
Sep 23, 2022 • 14 tweets • 2 min read
Declaring mobilization was a risky gamble that may lead to Putin’s demise. But not because it is unpopular with the public.
Mobilization set up for failure the hardliners within Putin’s inner circle, the very group that had clamored for it. Once it fails to turn the war around, they will face a choice between taking the fall or turning against their leader.
Aug 13, 2022 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
About the visa ban proposal: If the goal is to implement a policy that would punish the supporters of Putin’s regime, rather than just lashing out, then there are several points to consider. #StandWithUkraine
Putin’s supporters (other than the oligarchs) vacation in Sochi and Crimea, not in Europe. On the other hand, an overwhelming majority of Russians, who do vacation in Europe, do not support Putin or the war. In fact, these Russians hate Putin second most, after Ukrainians.
Aug 9, 2022 • 19 tweets • 3 min read
The significance of today’s attacks in Crimea is so much more than destroying Russian air cover for the battle for Kherson. That the US signed off on Ukraine striking a target in Crimea is a major game-changer in this war.
Whereas it previously looked like Crimea was off-limits, today’s attacks showed that may not be the case. It’s too early to tell whether this was an isolated incident—perhaps Ukraine made a case that destroying this airfield was tactically crucial for taking back Kherson.
May 20, 2022 • 21 tweets • 4 min read
It’s natural to be worried about the threat of a nuclear war, especially with all the rhetoric coming out of Russia. Here is some analysis from the perspective of research on authoritarian regimes, war outcomes, and international bargaining.
The bottom line is that the threat of nuclear escalation is low, no matter how this war ends for Russia.
Apr 21, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
A suicide epidemic among Russian gas oligarchs? 1/4
April 20, 2022--Vladislav Avayev, former Vice President for Gazprombank, allegedly shot his wife and daughter, then himself. skynews.com.au/australia-news…
April 19, 2022--Sergey Protosenya, former deputy chairman of Russian gas giant Novatek, found hanged at his house, his wife and daughter dead of stab wounds. newsweek.com/russian-oligar…
Apr 9, 2022 • 19 tweets • 4 min read
Why do so many Russian-speakers support Putin and this war? Still. Even in Ukraine (though their number is declining). And in other former satellites, or even Canada and the US. Why? How? WHY?
It’s not just the Kremlin propaganda. Let me tell you a deeply personal story. 1/n
When Russian missiles hit my hometown of Odesa on Feb 24, my mom jumped on the first bus out of the country. Her obvious destination was Moldova—because of geographical proximity, but also, because our family lived there until 1995 when we moved to Ukraine.
Mar 24, 2022 • 23 tweets • 4 min read
Why Russia and Ukraine CANNOT reach a stable peaceful settlement. #PutinsWar will go on as long as the very last soldier is standing. The reason is that every point of negotiation is plagued with commitment problems. 1/n #StopPutin#StandWithUkraine
I previously explained that the cause of this war is an information failure.
People ask me everyday what they can do to help #StopPutin, so here are some ideas.
#StandWithUkraine
This war is taking place on two battlegrounds—physical and informational. Most of us cannot do much to help win the physical war, but each of us can do a lot to help win the informational war.
Mar 18, 2022 • 27 tweets • 5 min read
Here is how the West can #StopPutin without World War III. 1/n
#StandWithUkraine
Putin’s war in Ukraine is NOT just about Ukraine. Remember how it all started? Putin amassed his troops on the Ukrainian border, but what did he do next? He made a list of demands of NATO, not of Ukraine. Here is the list in case you missed that: theguardian.com/world/2021/dec…
Mar 17, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Why is Putin bombing maternity wards and shelters labeled “CHILDREN”? Why does he order reckless attacks on nuclear plants and major dams? Why are Russian soldiers mining humanitarian corridors?
Other than being the epitome of evil, of course. 1/n
#StandWithUkriane#StopPutin
War is the continuation of bargaining by other means. It is an opportunity to convey information to your opponent-information about your capabilities, resolve, and the ability to inflict costs.
Mar 12, 2022 • 22 tweets • 5 min read
The West, especially @POTUS, has demonstrated a complete lack of the most basic understanding of crisis bargaining, brinkmanship, and deterrence. Here are the Cliff’s notes of Schelling, Fearon, and Powell with an application to #PutinsWar. This is taught in any Intro to IR. 1/n
War is a bargaining failure. The goal of crisis bargaining is to find the bargaining range-the division of pie that ALL parties prefer to fighting. Such a bargaining range always exists: war is costly-it decreases the size of the pie. The pie is always larger before the war start
Mar 10, 2022 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
If you’re hoping that the war in Ukraine will lead to a popular revolution in Russia, here is why it won’t. #StopPutin#StandWithUkraine 1/n
I explain this via a comparison to the popular revolution in Ukraine in 2014, which resulted in the ouster of Yanukovich--mass protests started in response to his abrupt withdrawal from negotiating Ukraine’s accession to the EU.
Mar 8, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
A poll done by Navalny's Anti-Corruption Fund shows that the number of Moscovites who view Russia as the aggressor increased from 29% on Feb 25 to 53% on Mar 3. #StandWithUkraine️#StopPutin
img.pravda.com/images/doc/5/3…
As a researcher, I cannot help but admire the research design. To account for obvious sampling bias, the poll is repeated 4 over a short time period. While the absolute values are still likely biased, you can see the trend.
Mar 5, 2022 • 23 tweets • 4 min read
If you’re hoping that Western sanctions will topple the regime in Russia, here is a thread on why they won’t. 1/n
To bring regime change, sanctions must prevent the leader from distributing rents to the winning coalition, ie elites will remove the leader who is no longer useful to them. Putin’s winning coalition roughly consists of two groups of elites: oligarchs and strongmen. 2/
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