Thread by @honkter

France faces its fate today and it seems like a good time to share a few considerations about this election cycle and the state of French politics in general. I'll start with this take of the excellent @JRochedy who in my view nails the incumbent president fairly well here.

https://twitter.com/JRochedy/status/1510505361614254083

Rochedy is right. What Macron lacks is the true gravitas of someone inhabited by his sense of duty and responsibility, the feeling of having the destiny of his nation and its people on his shoulders. Charles de Gaulle was the embodiment of this attitude.

Beyond public policy and image hiccups, I believe many French perceive at an emotional level that to the gravity of the master statesman Macron, despite his efforts to inhabit the job, still conveys the aloofness of someone who knows that ultimately, he is not really in charge.

Some of us have stated a number of times before that Macron is a manager at heart. His regular career path would have been at Deloitte or a similar company. This is why I believe the McKinsey affair sticks. Again, deep down people perceive this world is where he really belongs.

And it finally turns out to be a liability for Macron. The armor is starting to crack. Hollande was despised for being soft and a default choice. Sarkozy before him was hated by the Left to the point where opposition to him in itself became the dominant intellectual current.

Macron was able to maintain a stronger image than his predecessors for a while, with overwhelming support from the powers that be. But the grace period appears to be coming to an end. In time to deny him this election cycle? Too early to say. He has the odds but magic is fading.

To come to the point: Macron will face a very difficult second mandate if he is reelected. While they disagree on who should replace him, a strong majority of French people no longer want him in office. Some polls say the disdain is even stronger than for Marine Le Pen.

Macron was placed where he is for his good presentation skills and his ability to rely on it to soothe women and the elderly, the two constituencies that will offer him a second mandate if he makes it. His remaining margin boils down on the illusion he is able to produce on them.

I won't venture into predicting results. The only thing I know is that the French power has outrageously manipulated the polls to produce the desired outcome and we shall see to what extent it worked or not. I just dearly hope the corrupted polling institutes will lose face.

The strategy of the establishment always has been to present the reelection of Macron as inevitable, as the only rational choice, and the rest is threat management. Le Pen has been astroturfed as the finalist as Macron has 100% chances of winning against her.

Zemmour is by far the most dangerous opponent as he is the first serious attempt to tap into the earth-shattering potential of reuniting the center-right and the nationalist right since De Gaulle. He is an existential threat to the current order and can't be allowed to succeed.

I am not overdoing it with the earth-shattering part. I won't get into the details of this key topic right now as it alone deserves volumes, but let's just say a movement that finally manages to unify right-leaning voters in France could confiscate power for decades.

People who control France know it, and this why Zemmour must not only fail in his bid, he also has to be defeated handily to prevent the very idea of such a scenario from getting traction. That at least became clear when polls started decorrelating from his obvious momentum.

Enter Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The far-left firebrand was polling single digit until there was a serious need to stop Zemmour's momentum and push Le Pen, who was losing ground, as the only clear contender for a qualification to the second round.

This is best achieved by scaring the right with a divided vote scenario that might result in Mélenchon facing Macron as Le Pen and Zemmour neutralize each other. Le Pen herself mentions "votez utile" in her official campaign clip.

Mélenchon is the right guy for this. He's a fighter, a good speaker, polled high in the last election and has a popular base. The French Left is in shambles, still reeling from the K.O. inflicted by Macron 5 years ago. Mitterrand's PS is no more. Mélenchon offers a credible story

So what happened in a nutshell is that Macron's impopularity and arrogance became apparent during the campaign (or lack thereof for him), and Zemmour's threat was taken seriously, resulting in a coordinated push against him. Hence Le Pen and Mélenchon's positions.

The Socialist Party that carried Mitterrand's 14-year reignhas now collapsed, and may not survive the current cycle with the atrocious Anne Hidalgo poised to end <2%. But its most lasting legacy is the gridlock it inflicted on French politics - through Le Pen father then daughter

Following the rather disastrous Giscard presidency, Mitterrand was able to both seize power and inflict a decisive blow to the French right by permanently dividing it between what became the cuck right and what is currently known as the far right, the Le Pen dynasty.

It can be argued that Le Pen and her party are an archetypal example of controlled opposition, applied to the far-right. Strong enough to vampirize votes, never strong enough to get in power.

Let's be clear here: Marine Le Pen can't rule. If the coup (cause it is one, again) succeeds and she is facing Macron in the second round, she will most likely lose handily. Even if a surprise occurred she wouldn't be able to rule. The state apparel won't let her.

A Le Pen presidency has practically no chance of happening. If it happened though, it would still be a manageable problem for the establishment, and imply she had to normalize her positions so much her original stance won't matter. At best it will be a replay of the Sarkozy years

A Zemmour presidency however would be an immediate existential threat to the establishment and the special interests that control France's wealth. Zemmour is no Le Pen, a washed up politician riding the grift. He is an outsider, à la Trump, and he is here to wage war.

Now granted, he will have the entire administration against him. But the message would be vastly different than that of a Le Pen presidency already. We will see in a few hours if the tactics to cut the air out of his campaign have worked. But his movement is likely to survive.

And with the remnants of the old Gaullian party now even weaker than him and the Pécresse candidacy likely to be the swan song of the cuck right (the rest of which will reluctantly coalesce around Macron), we are now in uncharted territory for French politics.

This election is key for many reasons. The results and relative positions of all candidates, the abstention, will tell a lot about the current state of the zeitgeist. A handy victory from Macron will signal a strong grip from the establishment. A defeat would be an earthquake.