Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

What one picture might be able to tell us about the upcoming Russian attempt to 'fix' the Donbas. This was tweeted by @JackDetsch this morning and its fascinating for showing a few things about this war and how its developing.

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1513022241067446272

First, and this is something we cant appreciate enough--there can be no surprises in this war. Even during Desert Storm after the Cold War, there could be ways of deceiving an opponent, hiding build-ups, etc. Those days seem to be gone.

You cant hide a long-logistical column from eyes in the sky--and that means no suprise assaults from the Russians (or anyone else probably). Not only will there be no surprises, the Ukrainians should have a pretty accurate idea of what is heading for them. They can prepare.

Interesting from a road/logistical idea is where this column happens to be (look closely) a secondary, narrow-lane road. The Ukrainians keeping Kharkiv has forced the Russians to take a longer and more complex road route for their build-up.

Looking at the map above, the main Russian supply nodes seem to be in Belgorod. And there are some major roads from Belgorod through Kharkiv to Izyum, from where any Russian assault will be launched. These would be by far the best way for a resupply to be sent.

However the Ukrainian strategy of keeping the Russians out of the cities makes this impossible and forces the Russians onto small secondary roads.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1512501083607814147?s=20&t=KWwdz1o1PbZeE71JNQcK4g

Looking closely at the road this long column is using--its really narrow. Wont be easy to maneuver, especially if the muddy season is here. Also, its longer--will lead to more wear and tear, vehicle wastage, etc.

This is all delaying the build up of Russian forces for a Donbas assault--if these troops are still 153 KM from Izyum. Plenty of time for breakdowns, Ukrainian attacks. And even when the Russians get there, they will have to reorganize. `

So the Russian build up is being hampered openly. Also a few things else to note. @Osinttechnical posted this video of Russian troops in the Donestsk Oblast preparing for the assault on the Donbas. Look at 2 seconds in....

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1512994693369544704?s=20&t=KWwdz1o1PbZeE71JNQcK4g

Did you see the small, blac civilian car marked with the Z? thats just a little sign of the logistics snafu the Russians have gotten themselves into. That car is a crapbox and should be nowhere near a major military buildup. Near the end of the video you see another civilian auto

So the Russian buildup for the Donbas operation, as prophesied a while back, is not proving easy. The Institute for the Study of War now agrees, and wondering if it might take months for the Russians to build up the appropriate force to assault the Donbas.

Here is their whole report. understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…

Long-story short. Those talking a few days ago about the Russians building up a large army and seizing the Donbas have to realize this is very unlikely in the short term (and long-term as well). We are just as likely the disorganized Russian preparations that occurred around Kyiv

The Ukrainians have excellent intelligence, the Russians have major logistical problems and will struggle to build up forces. Get even more support to Ukraine now and let them build up more strength in the Donbas and the Russians will be in for a very rough ride.

For the same of balance, here is an article arguing that the Russians will have learned a great deal in the war and will be able to build up the right force and do better in the Donbas. I don’t agree, but worth your time. theguardian.com/world/2022/apr…

To add to this thread and the Ukrainian strategy of holding onto their cities, one thing that might not get enough coverage is the huge threat that the Ukrainians in Kharkiv pose to any logistical effort the Russians make in the Donbas. Red mark Kharkiv

Ukrainians basically have a launch point at any time to try and cut supplies running from Belgorod to Izyum. This will force the Russians to divert significant forces to try and contain Kharkiv. If they don’t, it’s a huge risk.

Sometime I get lucky with the timing of these threads. As if on cue, I give you….

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1513067832531169281

Can anyone locate this? Is it Donbas? Another Ukrainian logistics attack on a Russian ammo depot. The Ukrainians are being ruthless with these logistics attacks.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1513110070170640389