Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 10 20 tweets 7 min read
Alright boys and girls, we are going for another wild ride in modern logistics & intelligence🧵

I want you to pay attention to the Russian artillery ammo & it's wood box packaging because I'm going to visually explain why it shows pre-mechanized logistics of the early 1930's
1/
The twitter denizen @thinkdefence has a wonderful blog site that explains lots of things logistical, combat engineering & UK military procurement.

One of his efforts is a multi-part post on modern mechanized logistics with many photos.
2/
thinkdefence.co.uk/2014/11/boxes-…
To quote him:

"...it is preferred to handle stores as ‘unit loads’ in the most appropriate box or container on a sliding scale, for example;

Ammunition box >> Multiple ammunition boxes on a pallet >> Multiple ammunition boxes on multiple pallets inside an ISO container"

3/
That passage & that scale & variance photo essay are the visible "look" of mechanized logistics

Each box or pallet is fully marked as to what is contained inside them plus other relevant shipping information for the unit load

This info is in electronic as well as paper form
4/
Again, from @thinkdefence text:

"Bigger boxes are more efficient.

One person can drive a container handler"

5/
"Or one person can drive a telehandler"

6/
"Or one person can handle a box

So it makes perfect sense to use mechanical handling equipment and bigger boxes wherever and whenever it is practical to do so.

7/
"What actually makes it practical to do so is two of the simplest but most influential inventions of the modern age, the pallet and the container."

I've talked about pallets is earlier threads like here:
8/
But @thinkdefence does a much better job here complete with a lot of forklift photo p--n.

9/
thinkdefence.co.uk/2014/11/milita…
And he takes it up a level with international standard containers and truck flat racks.
10/
thinkdefence.co.uk/2014/11/milita…
The definitive history text on ISO containers is Mark Levinson's "The Box: How the Shipping Container Made the World Smaller and the World Economy Bigger"

11/
amazon.com/Box-Shipping-C…
You really have to count yourself ignorant of the economic realities of the 21st century world if you do not own & have not read this book.

The history there is central to the rise of both "Big Box" retail & the economic rise of China.

12/
So, returning to the theme of Russian Artillery logistics & the twin shocks I had looking at it.

The 1st shock was for what amount to cultural reasons, the Russian Army treats trucks as a replacement for a horse drawn cart.

13/
Trucks aren't treated by the Russian Army as a piece of capital equipment that needs to be used to be effective.

And that it's most effective & productive use is with mechanized material handling equipment that speeds loading & unloading time.

14/
The other, even bigger shock was that Western intelligence agencies missed this fact central to the combat power of Russian Artillery for _80 YEARS_.

_80 YEARS_.

The revealed level of university educated class snobbery against manual labor built into Western Intelligence
15/
...is an utter wonder to behold.

US legislators really need to sic both the Government Accountability Office (GAO) & Congressional Budget Officer (CBO) on America's various military & civilian intelligence agencies to see how many bad assumptions were built into
16/
...Soviet/Russian Army intelligence estimates these past eight decades.

The Western intelligence agencies OTOH, need to be thinking in terms of hiring & training up as analysts a bunch of logistics NCO's from their armed forces to get non-University career tract POV's.
17/
Turning those new hire logistics NCO's loose on those old Russian Army intelligence reports and having them tear apart the assumptions there will teach them how to write modern intelligence reports while educating their supervisors on their university-limited world views.

18/
In the USA, this will not only answer the incoming GAO & CBO mail. It will also let you achieve a more diverse workforce as logistical unit NCO's are disproportionately non-Caucasian and have more women than combat units.

Working class, disciplined minds who don't
19/
...look down on people who their hands dirty are exactly the diversity Western, & particularly US intelligence has been missing out on these last 80 years.

20/End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Apr 12
This is going to be a long thread🧵on the ongoing collapse of the Russian Army and how it is shaping events in Ukraine, including the recent Russian chemical attack on Azov troops in Mariupol.

Saddle up, it's going to be a wild ride.


1/
James Dunnigan's Strategy page -dot- com site put out a long analytical piece on Russian contract soldiers, conscription & the fading away of the Russian Army as a demographic consequence of the aging out of the
strategypage.com/htmw/htwin/202…
2/
...ethnic white Russian population inside the Russian Federation for the Ukraine War.

In a whole lot of words, Dunnigan lays out the current military power implications for the Russian Army of something @kamilkazani spoke to in the tweet here:


3/
Read 22 tweets
Apr 11
The biggest reason Saudi Patriot batteries are as effective as they currently are against Iranian-Houthi drones & ballistic missiles is US Contractor Logistical Support.

My old agency administers those contracts.

Declaring it was "impossible" to equip Ukraine
1/
with Patriot batteries quickly is playing a game of "Pretending not to know" what is happening in Saudi Arabia right now.

This is a favorite game of the De-escalation faction in the Biden Administration.

You can mark everyone who said it was 'logistically impossible' to do
2/
...so on Twitter as either a fool or tool for that DC faction.

In fact, such Patriot contractor logistical support is being used in NATO right now.

See:



3/
Read 7 tweets
Apr 11
This is the best video I have seen out of Ukraine demonstrating the military phenomena of "Target fixation."

The UA Igla operator doesn't move a hair when the blast wave from the dropped Russian bomb rolls over his #2.

He tuned out all other reality to make the shot.

1/
Then after the missile departs, #1 moved his assets out of the way to avoid counter fire.

This is why cohesive teams are better on the battlefield.

Other servicemen can keep 'situational awareness' while a heavy weapons operator takes his shot.

Look at the #2's head
2/
It is swiveling around looking for threats while the Igla #1 is hunting a Russian aircraft.

Doing this consistently & effectively in combat takes good leadership & training.

All that 'military stuff' mindlessly drilling these actions over and over again is what a
3/
Read 4 tweets
Apr 11
Alright folks, this is going to be a long logistical thread🧵 where I will try and make the case that that advanced US weapons systems like the Patriot SAM, M1A1 Abrams tank & F-16 with AMRAAM can be both rapidly transitioned & effectively used by Ukraine.

It won't be cheap
1/
...to do.

I going to walk you all through about 37 years of US military history (1985-2022) with an emphasis on the concepts of "Contractor Logistical Support" and "Private Military Corporations" with a bit of history involving the personnel policies of Claire Chennault's
2/
Flying Tigers thrown in.

Trust me, it's needed.😉

In the late Cold War year of 1985 LOGCAP or “Logistics Civil Augmentation Program” was established primarily to pre-plan for contingencies and to “leverage existing civilian resources.”

Basically, we are talking a contract
3/
Read 24 tweets
Apr 10
Western Intelligence 🧵

There were eight years of US, UK & other NATO training teams in Ukraine between 2014 & 2022 teaching mechanized logistics as well as modern anti-Russian tactics.👇
1/
So there were literally hundreds of NATO servicemen who could have been debriefed about Ukrainian Armed Forces effectiveness and what Ukrainians know about Russian logistics.

2/
Given the US DoD computer model predicting the outcome of a Russian invasion of Ukraine -- USING THE MOST UP TO DATE INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATES -- predicted Ukraine would fall in 72-to-96 hours.

Do you think anyone from the US CIA, DIA, US Military intelligence or their NATO
3/
Read 12 tweets
Apr 10
If you have not read this ISW 🧵thread today you need to.

I've a comments to add for my own🧵.

ISW Short form:

The Russian military has hit the trained manpower wall until well into June 2022.👇
A major "proxy" supporting this ISW thread surfaced today.

Three Russian Army lieutenants were killed acting as the driver, gunner and commander of a BMP infantry combat vehicle.

See👇
2/
Lieutenants normally act as commanders of three vehicle platoons of Tanks, BMP's or BTR's.

That is, one commander for 3 vehicles and 8-to-19 men.

So, three lieutenants would command all the Mechanized Platoons of a Motor Rifle Company.
3/
Read 14 tweets

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