Alright boys and girls, we are going for another wild ride in modern logistics & intelligence🧵
I want you to pay attention to the Russian artillery ammo & it's wood box packaging because I'm going to visually explain why it shows pre-mechanized logistics of the early 1930's 1/
The definitive history text on ISO containers is Mark Levinson's "The Box: How the Shipping Container Made the World Smaller and the World Economy Bigger"
The other, even bigger shock was that Western intelligence agencies missed this fact central to the combat power of Russian Artillery for _80 YEARS_.
_80 YEARS_.
The revealed level of university educated class snobbery against manual labor built into Western Intelligence
15/
...is an utter wonder to behold.
US legislators really need to sic both the Government Accountability Office (GAO) & Congressional Budget Officer (CBO) on America's various military & civilian intelligence agencies to see how many bad assumptions were built into
16/
...Soviet/Russian Army intelligence estimates these past eight decades.
The Western intelligence agencies OTOH, need to be thinking in terms of hiring & training up as analysts a bunch of logistics NCO's from their armed forces to get non-University career tract POV's.
17/
Turning those new hire logistics NCO's loose on those old Russian Army intelligence reports and having them tear apart the assumptions there will teach them how to write modern intelligence reports while educating their supervisors on their university-limited world views.
18/
In the USA, this will not only answer the incoming GAO & CBO mail. It will also let you achieve a more diverse workforce as logistical unit NCO's are disproportionately non-Caucasian and have more women than combat units.
Working class, disciplined minds who don't
19/
...look down on people who their hands dirty are exactly the diversity Western, & particularly US intelligence has been missing out on these last 80 years.
20/End
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
This is going to be a long thread🧵on the ongoing collapse of the Russian Army and how it is shaping events in Ukraine, including the recent Russian chemical attack on Azov troops in Mariupol.
James Dunnigan's Strategy page -dot- com site put out a long analytical piece on Russian contract soldiers, conscription & the fading away of the Russian Army as a demographic consequence of the aging out of the strategypage.com/htmw/htwin/202…
2/
...ethnic white Russian population inside the Russian Federation for the Ukraine War.
In a whole lot of words, Dunnigan lays out the current military power implications for the Russian Army of something @kamilkazani spoke to in the tweet here:
The biggest reason Saudi Patriot batteries are as effective as they currently are against Iranian-Houthi drones & ballistic missiles is US Contractor Logistical Support.
Alright folks, this is going to be a long logistical thread🧵 where I will try and make the case that that advanced US weapons systems like the Patriot SAM, M1A1 Abrams tank & F-16 with AMRAAM can be both rapidly transitioned & effectively used by Ukraine.
It won't be cheap 1/
...to do.
I going to walk you all through about 37 years of US military history (1985-2022) with an emphasis on the concepts of "Contractor Logistical Support" and "Private Military Corporations" with a bit of history involving the personnel policies of Claire Chennault's 2/
Flying Tigers thrown in.
Trust me, it's needed.😉
In the late Cold War year of 1985 LOGCAP or “Logistics Civil Augmentation Program” was established primarily to pre-plan for contingencies and to “leverage existing civilian resources.”
There were eight years of US, UK & other NATO training teams in Ukraine between 2014 & 2022 teaching mechanized logistics as well as modern anti-Russian tactics.👇 1/
So there were literally hundreds of NATO servicemen who could have been debriefed about Ukrainian Armed Forces effectiveness and what Ukrainians know about Russian logistics.
2/
Given the US DoD computer model predicting the outcome of a Russian invasion of Ukraine -- USING THE MOST UP TO DATE INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATES -- predicted Ukraine would fall in 72-to-96 hours.
Do you think anyone from the US CIA, DIA, US Military intelligence or their NATO
3/