Pavel Slunkin Profile picture
Apr 10, 2022 16 tweets 5 min read Read on X
A few words about the resistance of Belarusians to the Russian aggression in Ukraine.

Thread.
1/ After 2020 and an unprecedented wave of repressions, several hundred thousand people have left Belarus. Thousands are in prison for political reasons (see the map)
2/ Torture and beatings that shocked the world in August 2020 have not disappeared. They have become even more cruel and large-scale. Some political prisoners tried to kill themselves right during the trial: by slitting their stomach or piercing neck with a ballpoint pen
3/ The last mass protests were crushed back in January 2021. Propaganda/state TV calls for the killing of opponents. However, Lukashenka has not become more popular (having about 30% support). His power rests on Kremlin’s support, loyal police and nomenklatura + total repression
4/ In 2021, civil society was almost completely destroyed in Belarus. Even organizations that were involved in protecting the rights of disabled people, ecology and biodiversity were liquidated. Leaders arrested or fled.
5/ In such conditions, the war found Belarusian society. The illegitimate Lukashenka has made Belarus a co-aggressor state, and its citizens are seen as traitors and occupants by the international community.
6/ Independent polls show that only 3% of Belarusians want the Belarusian army to enter the war with Ukraine on the side of Russia.
7/ Since the beginning of the war, more than 1,500 people have been arrested for anti-war actions. A broad partisan movement has revived in Belarus, which has been a symbol of the country since WW2. Partisans risk their lives. Some of them are shot, others are arrested
8/ This is a map of railroad sabotage actions. The partisans have been blocking the movement of Russian military equipment to Ukraine by rail. Russia had to switch to air transport because of this
9/ Belarusian cyberpartisans attack databases and train management systems, websites of state institutions, etc. @cpartisans
10/ Belarusians massively share information about the deployment and movement of Russian troops and equipment. Information about the departures of Russian war planes is immediately published. This allows the Ukrainian air defense systems and the army to be ready for attacks
11/ Several Belarusian battalions are fighting for the freedom of Ukraine. They are the first national battalions in the Ukrainian army. Belarusian soldiers died, including defending Bucha.
12/ Belarusians have created dozens of initiatives to support the Ukrainian army and Ukrainian refugees. Thanks to them, the Ukrainian army has received some new vehicles and weapons, they help refugees financially and provide medical, psychological support and service assistance
13/ An important feature is that these initiatives are predominantly in exile since 2020. They are led by the same people who have proven themselves 2 years ago.
14/ But even inside Belarus, despite police persecution, Belarusians help Ukrainian refugees: they provide them with free services, help with housing, evacuation to the EU, and collect money for them.
15/ Anti-war sentiment and resistance actions are one of the reasons why Lukashenka has not yet sent the Belarusian army to Ukraine.
End.

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More from @PavelSlunkin

Aug 25, 2023
@TheStudyofWar has recently published their analytical assessment of what happened to Prigozhin and what it means for Belarus and Lukashenka.

ISW is a popular and often quoted resource, but their analysis of Belarus raises too many questions. So let's dig in
According to ISW (quotes from the Russian Offensive Campaign assesment, August 24, 2023):
1. "Lukashenka will likely remain silent on the matter to avoid provoking Putin and further risking his already vulnerable position"

understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…
Image
2. "Prigozhin’s assassination has likely signaled to Lukashenko both a dramatic reduction of his negotiating space with the Kremlin and an implicit threat against his continued attempts to resist Union State integration efforts".
Read 21 tweets
Jul 24, 2023
Many rumors surrounding the sudden disappearance of the Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang. Of course, I don't know where he is or what is happening to him.
Instead I will share my impressions of our meeting and working together in 2015. Image
He then headed the Protocol Department of the Foreign Ministry and came to Belarus as part of a delegation led by Xi Jinping. You can spot him in this picrure. Or us both in this video https://t.co/iQmQgMSYlD
Image
Let me start by saying that the Chinese protocol is a huge machine that employs hundreds of diplomats. The entire Protocol department of Belarus then consisted of 11 people. This is also the reason why a young dilomat like me had a chance to work with Qin Gang and other CH VIPs.
Read 17 tweets
Jul 21, 2023
Wild examples of RU propaganda narratives are often published here. But you have never seen quotes from the Belarusian TV.
This is unfair. RU propagandists look like sweet summer children against the backdrop of their BY colleagues.
A thread with translated quotes from the video
This is Aliaksandr Lukashenka's favorite "journalist" - Grigory Azarenok. He works in Lukashenka's pool, follows him everywhere and even received a Wagner sledgehammer as a gift from him. Mr Azarenok is a laureate of Belarusian state awards in the field of journalism. Image
I am quoting from his author's program "The secret springs of politics", which is broadcast on the main TV channel of Minsk:

"The European Parliament, a bunch of talking shit, issued a resolution! They accuse us of stealing children! They want to arrest us!"
Read 9 tweets
Jul 5, 2023
I know that many journalists and editors-in-chief follow me here. This short thread is for you.

Please remember that when you call Alexander Lukashenko the “President of Belarus” this is neither true, nor correct. And this misleads your reader. Some facts further…
This is not my personal view or analytical assessment, but an official position of dozens of states. After rigged elections in 2020 the EU, its member states, USA, UK, Canada, NZ, Ukraine and many many other countries don’t recognize him as the legitimate president of Belarus

Since then no Ambassador of these states has presented credentials to Lukashenko so as not to recognize his legitimacy or call him president in official documents
Read 10 tweets
Feb 11, 2023
Exactly 8 years ago today Putin, Merkel, Hollande and Poroshenko met in Minsk's Palace of Independence to negotiate ceasefire and peace in Ukraine after Russia's invasion in 2014.
I was BY diplomat then and worked with the UA delegation. Here is my thread about that night. Image
Let's first add some context here. The Normandy format meeting in Minsk attracted enormous attention to Belarus that was gradually getting out of international isolation and surpisingly took a rather neutral stance on the war.
Lukashenka didn't recognise the annexation of Crimea and cautiously stood up for the territorial integrity of Ukraine. This let him present Belarus as a relatively neutral country that can suit for negotiations purposes.
Read 21 tweets

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