Pavel Slunkin Profile picture
Apr 10, 2022 16 tweets 5 min read Read on X
A few words about the resistance of Belarusians to the Russian aggression in Ukraine.

Thread.
1/ After 2020 and an unprecedented wave of repressions, several hundred thousand people have left Belarus. Thousands are in prison for political reasons (see the map)
2/ Torture and beatings that shocked the world in August 2020 have not disappeared. They have become even more cruel and large-scale. Some political prisoners tried to kill themselves right during the trial: by slitting their stomach or piercing neck with a ballpoint pen
3/ The last mass protests were crushed back in January 2021. Propaganda/state TV calls for the killing of opponents. However, Lukashenka has not become more popular (having about 30% support). His power rests on Kremlin’s support, loyal police and nomenklatura + total repression
4/ In 2021, civil society was almost completely destroyed in Belarus. Even organizations that were involved in protecting the rights of disabled people, ecology and biodiversity were liquidated. Leaders arrested or fled.
5/ In such conditions, the war found Belarusian society. The illegitimate Lukashenka has made Belarus a co-aggressor state, and its citizens are seen as traitors and occupants by the international community.
6/ Independent polls show that only 3% of Belarusians want the Belarusian army to enter the war with Ukraine on the side of Russia.
7/ Since the beginning of the war, more than 1,500 people have been arrested for anti-war actions. A broad partisan movement has revived in Belarus, which has been a symbol of the country since WW2. Partisans risk their lives. Some of them are shot, others are arrested
8/ This is a map of railroad sabotage actions. The partisans have been blocking the movement of Russian military equipment to Ukraine by rail. Russia had to switch to air transport because of this
9/ Belarusian cyberpartisans attack databases and train management systems, websites of state institutions, etc. @cpartisans
10/ Belarusians massively share information about the deployment and movement of Russian troops and equipment. Information about the departures of Russian war planes is immediately published. This allows the Ukrainian air defense systems and the army to be ready for attacks
11/ Several Belarusian battalions are fighting for the freedom of Ukraine. They are the first national battalions in the Ukrainian army. Belarusian soldiers died, including defending Bucha.
12/ Belarusians have created dozens of initiatives to support the Ukrainian army and Ukrainian refugees. Thanks to them, the Ukrainian army has received some new vehicles and weapons, they help refugees financially and provide medical, psychological support and service assistance
13/ An important feature is that these initiatives are predominantly in exile since 2020. They are led by the same people who have proven themselves 2 years ago.
14/ But even inside Belarus, despite police persecution, Belarusians help Ukrainian refugees: they provide them with free services, help with housing, evacuation to the EU, and collect money for them.
15/ Anti-war sentiment and resistance actions are one of the reasons why Lukashenka has not yet sent the Belarusian army to Ukraine.
End.

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More from @PavelSlunkin

Jun 22
Some important takeaways, observations, and inside details from the meeting between Lukashenka and @generalkellogg

Thread 🧵 Image
The meeting began on the evening of June 20 and lasted over 6 hours. Yet, news of the meeting for some reason was published only the next day (June 21).
❗️Notably, Belarus’s foreign minister was not invited❗️
The second-highest ranking official on Lukashenka’s side was the head of the KGB - remarkable in itself. The only Belarus’s diplomat present was Ambassador to UN Valiancin Rybakou, who also served as interpreter. Image
Image
Read 11 tweets
Dec 5, 2024
The world has reached its most dangerous point for democracies in decades. What seemed impossible yesterday is now becoming the new normal today. If liberal democracies don’t unite for self-preservation, they risk disappearing sooner than we imagine.
Short and scary 🧵 below Image
France and Germany are on the brink of far-right parties taking power.
The U.S. is growing skeptical of traditional democratic standards/practices domestically and its role in protecting NATO allies and democratic movements abroad.
The EU’s efficiency is hindered by a growing bloc of autocratic-leaning leaders in Hungary, Slovakia, and likely Romania soon.
South Korea has shown how fragile even stable democracies can be.
Read 7 tweets
Nov 20, 2024
An alleged audio recording of Lukashenka and Prigozhin (Wagner) during the mutiny in 2023 has surfaced on Russian Telegram. Here is a thread with the transcription of it.
*You can thank me by retweeting it*⬇️ Image
Lukashenka: So, I haven’t spoken with him yet. His entire entourage is in chaos. They’re already pleading with me, asking for help: "Just a little more. Just a little more. Wait a moment. We’re almost there, almost there". You know the situation⤵️
*continues: But our press service made a statement, maybe harmful for us, that I spoke with the president this morning, saying we’ll do everything for a peaceful resolution. I offered to talk to you, to try and negotiate and so on⤵️
Read 10 tweets
Aug 25, 2023
@TheStudyofWar has recently published their analytical assessment of what happened to Prigozhin and what it means for Belarus and Lukashenka.

ISW is a popular and often quoted resource, but their analysis of Belarus raises too many questions. So let's dig in
According to ISW (quotes from the Russian Offensive Campaign assesment, August 24, 2023):
1. "Lukashenka will likely remain silent on the matter to avoid provoking Putin and further risking his already vulnerable position"

understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…
Image
2. "Prigozhin’s assassination has likely signaled to Lukashenko both a dramatic reduction of his negotiating space with the Kremlin and an implicit threat against his continued attempts to resist Union State integration efforts".
Read 21 tweets
Jul 24, 2023
Many rumors surrounding the sudden disappearance of the Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang. Of course, I don't know where he is or what is happening to him.
Instead I will share my impressions of our meeting and working together in 2015. Image
He then headed the Protocol Department of the Foreign Ministry and came to Belarus as part of a delegation led by Xi Jinping. You can spot him in this picrure. Or us both in this video https://t.co/iQmQgMSYlD
Image
Let me start by saying that the Chinese protocol is a huge machine that employs hundreds of diplomats. The entire Protocol department of Belarus then consisted of 11 people. This is also the reason why a young dilomat like me had a chance to work with Qin Gang and other CH VIPs.
Read 17 tweets
Jul 21, 2023
Wild examples of RU propaganda narratives are often published here. But you have never seen quotes from the Belarusian TV.
This is unfair. RU propagandists look like sweet summer children against the backdrop of their BY colleagues.
A thread with translated quotes from the video
This is Aliaksandr Lukashenka's favorite "journalist" - Grigory Azarenok. He works in Lukashenka's pool, follows him everywhere and even received a Wagner sledgehammer as a gift from him. Mr Azarenok is a laureate of Belarusian state awards in the field of journalism. Image
I am quoting from his author's program "The secret springs of politics", which is broadcast on the main TV channel of Minsk:

"The European Parliament, a bunch of talking shit, issued a resolution! They accuse us of stealing children! They want to arrest us!"
Read 9 tweets

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