Pavel Slunkin Profile picture
Policy analyst, visiting fellow @ecfr. Former #Belarus diplomat.
zypic Profile picture Mike the Great Profile picture marc.sieber Profile picture 中南海点8 Profile picture 5 subscribed
Aug 25, 2023 21 tweets 6 min read
@TheStudyofWar has recently published their analytical assessment of what happened to Prigozhin and what it means for Belarus and Lukashenka.

ISW is a popular and often quoted resource, but their analysis of Belarus raises too many questions. So let's dig in According to ISW (quotes from the Russian Offensive Campaign assesment, August 24, 2023):
1. "Lukashenka will likely remain silent on the matter to avoid provoking Putin and further risking his already vulnerable position"

understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…
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Jul 24, 2023 17 tweets 6 min read
Many rumors surrounding the sudden disappearance of the Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang. Of course, I don't know where he is or what is happening to him.
Instead I will share my impressions of our meeting and working together in 2015. Image He then headed the Protocol Department of the Foreign Ministry and came to Belarus as part of a delegation led by Xi Jinping. You can spot him in this picrure. Or us both in this video https://t.co/iQmQgMSYlD
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Jul 21, 2023 9 tweets 2 min read
Wild examples of RU propaganda narratives are often published here. But you have never seen quotes from the Belarusian TV.
This is unfair. RU propagandists look like sweet summer children against the backdrop of their BY colleagues.
A thread with translated quotes from the video This is Aliaksandr Lukashenka's favorite "journalist" - Grigory Azarenok. He works in Lukashenka's pool, follows him everywhere and even received a Wagner sledgehammer as a gift from him. Mr Azarenok is a laureate of Belarusian state awards in the field of journalism. Image
Jul 5, 2023 10 tweets 5 min read
I know that many journalists and editors-in-chief follow me here. This short thread is for you.

Please remember that when you call Alexander Lukashenko the “President of Belarus” this is neither true, nor correct. And this misleads your reader. Some facts further… This is not my personal view or analytical assessment, but an official position of dozens of states. After rigged elections in 2020 the EU, its member states, USA, UK, Canada, NZ, Ukraine and many many other countries don’t recognize him as the legitimate president of Belarus

Feb 11, 2023 21 tweets 8 min read
Exactly 8 years ago today Putin, Merkel, Hollande and Poroshenko met in Minsk's Palace of Independence to negotiate ceasefire and peace in Ukraine after Russia's invasion in 2014.
I was BY diplomat then and worked with the UA delegation. Here is my thread about that night. Image Let's first add some context here. The Normandy format meeting in Minsk attracted enormous attention to Belarus that was gradually getting out of international isolation and surpisingly took a rather neutral stance on the war.
Apr 10, 2022 16 tweets 5 min read
A few words about the resistance of Belarusians to the Russian aggression in Ukraine.

Thread. 1/ After 2020 and an unprecedented wave of repressions, several hundred thousand people have left Belarus. Thousands are in prison for political reasons (see the map)