Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 10 12 tweets 3 min read
Western Intelligence 🧵

There were eight years of US, UK & other NATO training teams in Ukraine between 2014 & 2022 teaching mechanized logistics as well as modern anti-Russian tactics.👇
1/
So there were literally hundreds of NATO servicemen who could have been debriefed about Ukrainian Armed Forces effectiveness and what Ukrainians know about Russian logistics.

2/
Given the US DoD computer model predicting the outcome of a Russian invasion of Ukraine -- USING THE MOST UP TO DATE INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATES -- predicted Ukraine would fall in 72-to-96 hours.

Do you think anyone from the US CIA, DIA, US Military intelligence or their NATO
3/
...nation equivalents bothered to do that?

This was a treasure trove of human intelligence telling you who in the Ukrainian military was any good, cross referencing Western knowledge on the Russian Army with people actually fighting them.

4/
This is a great example of a term used in behavior economics referred to as "Directed Cognition."

Boiled down to laymen terms, it means only picking data that supports a belief to save time making a decision.

In this case, a bad first impression from 2014 that the Ukrainian
5/
... armed forces were a bunch of corrupt incompetents and nothing would ever change.

The US intelligence impression of the Ukrainian Army as of 2014 was obviously what was programed into that US Defense Department computer model that Ukraine would fall
6/
...in 72-to-96 hours.

That 2014 impression was never updated with data that contradicted it.

The Jennifer Lawrence, Leon DiCaprio Extinction event/black comedy "Don't Look Up" captures this "Directed Cognition" elite behavior to a Tee.
7/
The important thing about people in Western Intelligence playing "Directed Cognition" games is that they will never stop doing it.

It is fundamental to who they are.

It beats actually working.

8/
There are journalist careers to be made in interviewing those NATO trainers about their impressions of the Ukrainian military and asking those trainers about who and how often they were debriefed after their training missions.
9/
This is also a wonderful opportunity for US Congressmen & Senators to get their names and faces in the newscasts asking very difficult public session questions about that.

Remember, there are no "sources and methods" public disclosure issues with asking if the intelligence
10/
...agencies ever bothered asking their training missions to Ukraine about anything.

The point about legislatures doing this is to send cold adrenalin shivers up and down the spines of intellectually lazy senior Western Intelligence officials about keeping their
11/
...phoney baloney jobs.

Because if they missed the lack of mechanization in the Russian Army logistics for 80 years.

And they have.

Western intelligence analysts certainly were not working.

12/End

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Trent Telenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @TrentTelenko

Apr 12
This is going to be a long thread🧵on the ongoing collapse of the Russian Army and how it is shaping events in Ukraine, including the recent Russian chemical attack on Azov troops in Mariupol.

Saddle up, it's going to be a wild ride.


1/
James Dunnigan's Strategy page -dot- com site put out a long analytical piece on Russian contract soldiers, conscription & the fading away of the Russian Army as a demographic consequence of the aging out of the
strategypage.com/htmw/htwin/202…
2/
...ethnic white Russian population inside the Russian Federation for the Ukraine War.

In a whole lot of words, Dunnigan lays out the current military power implications for the Russian Army of something @kamilkazani spoke to in the tweet here:


3/
Read 55 tweets
Apr 11
The biggest reason Saudi Patriot batteries are as effective as they currently are against Iranian-Houthi drones & ballistic missiles is US Contractor Logistical Support.

My old agency administers those contracts.

Declaring it was "impossible" to equip Ukraine
1/
with Patriot batteries quickly is playing a game of "Pretending not to know" what is happening in Saudi Arabia right now.

This is a favorite game of the De-escalation faction in the Biden Administration.

You can mark everyone who said it was 'logistically impossible' to do
2/
...so on Twitter as either a fool or tool for that DC faction.

In fact, such Patriot contractor logistical support is being used in NATO right now.

See:



3/
Read 7 tweets
Apr 11
This is the best video I have seen out of Ukraine demonstrating the military phenomena of "Target fixation."

The UA Igla operator doesn't move a hair when the blast wave from the dropped Russian bomb rolls over his #2.

He tuned out all other reality to make the shot.

1/
Then after the missile departs, #1 moved his assets out of the way to avoid counter fire.

This is why cohesive teams are better on the battlefield.

Other servicemen can keep 'situational awareness' while a heavy weapons operator takes his shot.

Look at the #2's head
2/
It is swiveling around looking for threats while the Igla #1 is hunting a Russian aircraft.

Doing this consistently & effectively in combat takes good leadership & training.

All that 'military stuff' mindlessly drilling these actions over and over again is what a
3/
Read 4 tweets
Apr 11
Alright folks, this is going to be a long logistical thread🧵 where I will try and make the case that that advanced US weapons systems like the Patriot SAM, M1A1 Abrams tank & F-16 with AMRAAM can be both rapidly transitioned & effectively used by Ukraine.

It won't be cheap
1/
...to do.

I going to walk you all through about 37 years of US military history (1985-2022) with an emphasis on the concepts of "Contractor Logistical Support" and "Private Military Corporations" with a bit of history involving the personnel policies of Claire Chennault's
2/
Flying Tigers thrown in.

Trust me, it's needed.😉

In the late Cold War year of 1985 LOGCAP or “Logistics Civil Augmentation Program” was established primarily to pre-plan for contingencies and to “leverage existing civilian resources.”

Basically, we are talking a contract
3/
Read 24 tweets
Apr 10
Alright boys and girls, we are going for another wild ride in modern logistics & intelligence🧵

I want you to pay attention to the Russian artillery ammo & it's wood box packaging because I'm going to visually explain why it shows pre-mechanized logistics of the early 1930's
1/
The twitter denizen @thinkdefence has a wonderful blog site that explains lots of things logistical, combat engineering & UK military procurement.

One of his efforts is a multi-part post on modern mechanized logistics with many photos.
2/
thinkdefence.co.uk/2014/11/boxes-…
To quote him:

"...it is preferred to handle stores as ‘unit loads’ in the most appropriate box or container on a sliding scale, for example;

Ammunition box >> Multiple ammunition boxes on a pallet >> Multiple ammunition boxes on multiple pallets inside an ISO container"

3/
Read 20 tweets
Apr 10
If you have not read this ISW 🧵thread today you need to.

I've a comments to add for my own🧵.

ISW Short form:

The Russian military has hit the trained manpower wall until well into June 2022.👇
A major "proxy" supporting this ISW thread surfaced today.

Three Russian Army lieutenants were killed acting as the driver, gunner and commander of a BMP infantry combat vehicle.

See👇
2/
Lieutenants normally act as commanders of three vehicle platoons of Tanks, BMP's or BTR's.

That is, one commander for 3 vehicles and 8-to-19 men.

So, three lieutenants would command all the Mechanized Platoons of a Motor Rifle Company.
3/
Read 14 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(