There were eight years of US, UK & other NATO training teams in Ukraine between 2014 & 2022 teaching mechanized logistics as well as modern anti-Russian tactics.👇 1/
So there were literally hundreds of NATO servicemen who could have been debriefed about Ukrainian Armed Forces effectiveness and what Ukrainians know about Russian logistics.
2/
Given the US DoD computer model predicting the outcome of a Russian invasion of Ukraine -- USING THE MOST UP TO DATE INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATES -- predicted Ukraine would fall in 72-to-96 hours.
Do you think anyone from the US CIA, DIA, US Military intelligence or their NATO
3/
...nation equivalents bothered to do that?
This was a treasure trove of human intelligence telling you who in the Ukrainian military was any good, cross referencing Western knowledge on the Russian Army with people actually fighting them.
4/
This is a great example of a term used in behavior economics referred to as "Directed Cognition."
Boiled down to laymen terms, it means only picking data that supports a belief to save time making a decision.
In this case, a bad first impression from 2014 that the Ukrainian
5/
... armed forces were a bunch of corrupt incompetents and nothing would ever change.
The US intelligence impression of the Ukrainian Army as of 2014 was obviously what was programed into that US Defense Department computer model that Ukraine would fall
6/
...in 72-to-96 hours.
That 2014 impression was never updated with data that contradicted it.
The Jennifer Lawrence, Leon DiCaprio Extinction event/black comedy "Don't Look Up" captures this "Directed Cognition" elite behavior to a Tee. 7/
The important thing about people in Western Intelligence playing "Directed Cognition" games is that they will never stop doing it.
It is fundamental to who they are.
It beats actually working.
8/
There are journalist careers to be made in interviewing those NATO trainers about their impressions of the Ukrainian military and asking those trainers about who and how often they were debriefed after their training missions.
9/
This is also a wonderful opportunity for US Congressmen & Senators to get their names and faces in the newscasts asking very difficult public session questions about that.
Remember, there are no "sources and methods" public disclosure issues with asking if the intelligence
10/
...agencies ever bothered asking their training missions to Ukraine about anything.
The point about legislatures doing this is to send cold adrenalin shivers up and down the spines of intellectually lazy senior Western Intelligence officials about keeping their
11/
...phoney baloney jobs.
Because if they missed the lack of mechanization in the Russian Army logistics for 80 years.
And they have.
Western intelligence analysts certainly were not working.
12/End
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
This is going to be a long thread🧵on the ongoing collapse of the Russian Army and how it is shaping events in Ukraine, including the recent Russian chemical attack on Azov troops in Mariupol.
James Dunnigan's Strategy page -dot- com site put out a long analytical piece on Russian contract soldiers, conscription & the fading away of the Russian Army as a demographic consequence of the aging out of the strategypage.com/htmw/htwin/202…
2/
...ethnic white Russian population inside the Russian Federation for the Ukraine War.
In a whole lot of words, Dunnigan lays out the current military power implications for the Russian Army of something @kamilkazani spoke to in the tweet here:
The biggest reason Saudi Patriot batteries are as effective as they currently are against Iranian-Houthi drones & ballistic missiles is US Contractor Logistical Support.
Alright folks, this is going to be a long logistical thread🧵 where I will try and make the case that that advanced US weapons systems like the Patriot SAM, M1A1 Abrams tank & F-16 with AMRAAM can be both rapidly transitioned & effectively used by Ukraine.
It won't be cheap 1/
...to do.
I going to walk you all through about 37 years of US military history (1985-2022) with an emphasis on the concepts of "Contractor Logistical Support" and "Private Military Corporations" with a bit of history involving the personnel policies of Claire Chennault's 2/
Flying Tigers thrown in.
Trust me, it's needed.😉
In the late Cold War year of 1985 LOGCAP or “Logistics Civil Augmentation Program” was established primarily to pre-plan for contingencies and to “leverage existing civilian resources.”
Alright boys and girls, we are going for another wild ride in modern logistics & intelligence🧵
I want you to pay attention to the Russian artillery ammo & it's wood box packaging because I'm going to visually explain why it shows pre-mechanized logistics of the early 1930's 1/