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GeoConfirmed Profile picture
@GeoConfirmed
Apr 11, 2022 • 52 tweets • 26 min read • Read on X
The "#Kramatorsk" strike, our third thread.

We managed to geolocate two different launch locations based on 9 GeoConfirmations.

We don't know how long this thread will be and additional information later on will also be placed in this thread, so we number it "xx/"

01/ Image
At least 50 people, including five children, were killed after a missile strike on a railway station in Kramatorsk, eastern Ukraine, that was being used by civilians trying to flee the fighting, Ukrainian officials said Friday.

There were 2 impacts:


02/ Image
So after we confirmed the impacts, we started looking for every sighting of possible launches we found.

And we started GeoConfirming them.

Soon it became clear ALL the launch sightings, we could confirm, came from Russian occupied territory in Donbass region.

Map by @isw.

03/ Image
For this reason we will not post GeoConfirmed sightings. In some occasions we can even guess from wich appartement the footage was made and we do not want to endanger the person who filmed it.

We hope you all will respect this also.

Map from @Liveuamap

04/ Image
We added the direction of the smoke on the map and we concluded 2 possible launch sites:

Sadove (Садове) and between Hirne (Гірне) and Ternove (Тернове)

This is based on the direction from 9 GeoConfirmed locations. Smoke is impacted by wind, so we drew boxes.

05/ Image
For these estimated launch boxes we took in consideration all the GeoConfirmed launches from 07 and 08 April.
Timings = video's with timing in local time (EEST)

The Strike was around 10:30.

"Sadove box":
All 08/04:
10:26
10:26
11:17
t.me/shortDPR/22000

06/
"Ternove box":
07 10:43
07 11:00
07 11:12
07 11:40
08 15:56
08 16:14

Regarding the attack on Kramatorsk, 2 videos of launches appear to have been posted just before or after the impact.



07/
These launch boxes are 101km (Sadove) and 109km (Ternove) away from Kramatorsk.

We can't confirm, by watching the sightings, what was launched, but we will take look if it's even possible with that distance.

08/ Image
In tweet 02/ you could see we used a third yellow marker:
This is where they found the engine of a Tochka-U.



09/
It is confirmed as the engine of Tochka-U by military experts.

9M79-1 = Tochka-U,
the '1' = U version.

Italian TV channel La7 has filmed the 9M79-1. (PIC 3)

More information on the difference:

armyrecognition.com/russia_russian…

militaryrussia.ru/blog/topic-191…

10/ ImageImageImage
We did not use the angle of the motor impact to determine the possible launch direction.
Why?

The engine of a Tochka-U separates from the warhead at 2km and freefalls from there. It gets resistance from the weather elements like wind.



11/
"24 MARCH - At 7:45 AM, a Tochka-U SRBM was fired towards the landing ships Saratov, Tsesar Kunikov, and Novocherkassk." reported by @GrangerE04117

Why is this interesting?

You can see the motor flying further and rotating 👇(00.08 - 00.11)



12/
The SS-21 Scarab (Russian name: 9M79 "Tochka") is a Russian-made short-range ballistic missile.
The Tochka-U is an improved version of the Tochka using a new missile propellant to increase the range to 120 km and an improved CEP (Circular Error Probable) to less than 95 m.

13/ Image
Components:

- 9P129: Launcher unit
- 9T218: transporter loader (TL)
- 9T222 (9T238): transport vehicle
- 9V819: automated checkup and testing vehicle
- 9V844: maintenance vehicle
- 9F370: ammunition equipment set
- 9Ya234 missile and 9Ya warhead containers

14/ Image
A new 3-axle amphibious chassis BAZ-5921 and BAZ-5922 were a future development of the first range of machines 5937/5939 and were made for a new rocket complex. It called 9K79 "Point" and consisted of two main systems - launcher 9P129 and loader 9T218.
trucksplanet.com/catalog/model.…
15/
Point = Tochka-U.
The BAZ-5921 is developed ONLY for the Tochka-U.
Versions with another goal were only prototypes.

Max speed = 120km in 136 sec.

Pictures by @ArmyRecognition and
sixmania.fr/en/baz-5921-ch…

16/ ImageImageImageImage
Our estimated launch areas are within range for a Tochka-U.

But does Russia is still operating the Tochka-U?

Short answer: Yes.
Long answer 👇

Russia announced it would replace them with Iskander. This also means they definitely have them in storage...

17/ Image
28 NOVEMBER 2016: "Missile, Rocket and Tube Artillery Corps will fully replace the Tochka-U (NATO reporting name: SS-21 Scarab-B) tactical ballistic missile system with the Iskander-M (SS-26 Stone) complex by 2020."

armyrecognition.com/november_2016_…

18/
But didn't replaced them all, on the contrary:

"In 2020, the newly formed 47th missile and 238th artillery brigades were deployed on the territory of the military garrison of the city of Korenovsk (Krasnodar Territory)."

Source: bmpd.livejournal.com/4379253.html

19/ Image
On February 20, 2021, an open day was held, which presented samples of weapons from units of the Korenovsky garrison:

The 47th missile brigade is armed with the 9K79 Tochka-U missile system.

kuban24.tv/item/v-korenov…

20/
The 47th missile and 238th artillery brigades were formed as part of the 8th combined arms army.

09 MAY 2021: Korenovsk-parade.

Watch minute 2.49 👇



and:



21/
The 8th combined arms army is fighting in Ukraïne:

"AFU Air Force destroys advanced command post of 8th Combined Arms Army of Southern Military District of Russia at airfield in Chornobayivka – Arestovych"
(General was killed)

interfax.com.ua/news/general/8…

22/
Report from @TheStudyofWar march 19.

"Russian forces concentrated considerable combat power around Mariupol drawn from the 8th Combined Arms Army to the east and from the group of Russian forces in Crimea to the west"

understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…

23/
Report from @TheStudyofWar April 08, day of the attack.

"Russia’s 8th Combined Arms Army (operating in Donbas) is equipped with the missile."

--> The Russian unit in the area of our estimated launch sites has the Tochka-U.

understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…

24/
06 MARCH: @CITeam_en concluded that Russia used the Tochka-U in the war:

"Russia is now using older Tochka-U missile launchers against Ukraine, as seen in Desnyanka, 40 km from the border with Belarus."



25/
Other Sightings:

18 MAR:
"New batch of Tochka-U tactical ballistic missiles was brought to Belarus.

Today at 14:12 (Minsk time), Russian An-124 Ruslan heavy cargo aircraft landed at the airfield in Machulishchy (Minsk region)."



26/
30 MAR

"A column of Russian equipment with “V” marks was moving from Rechitsa towards Gomel, Belarus.
There were at least 8 Tochka-U, several BTR-82a, about 9 KamAZ trucks, some of which are carrying Tochka-U missiles,..."



27/
31 MAR: Area Gomel, Belarus.

Russian vehicles on train in #Gomel, #Belarus



28/
Additional information:

Tweet 28:

The ones with the plastic roof are 9T218 transporter loader (TL) with spare missiles; (Pic 01) = 4 vehicles visible

The ones with the metal roof are 9P129 Launcher units. (Pic 2) = 2 vehicles visible

29/ ImageImage
Why would Russia use Tochka-U if they have 9K720 Iskander?

Because their Iskender stock is rapidly shrinking due to the fierce Ukrainian resistance...
And they have them, so why not use it...

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OTR-21_To…

30/
But what about the serial number?

Serial numbers have no value in this:

1: You can easily adjust them
2: Russia has captured several Ukrainian ammunition depots during this war...
So they can perfectly have missiles with Ukrainian serial numbers.



31/
Why Russia attacked Kramatorsk?

An imporant railroad and its a strategic city for Donbass. --> Ukrainian troop movement is also by train.
Russia attacked other railroads and stations on 07 April:
Mentioned here:
t.me/truexanewsua/3…

And here:
ukrinform.ua/rubric-regions…

32/
An other question: why should Ukraine attack Kramatorsk and blame it on Russia?

Russia has already commited a dozen WarCrimes, why would this one make a huge difference that Ukraïne is willing to place their friendship with the West on the line?
Ukraine needs the railroads.

33/ Image
This was Kramatorsk on 07 April 2022:

"Video from #Kramatorsk train station. All the people trapped. Now you understand why mothers write contact details on their children’s bodies."



34/
Did we already mention it was MH17 all over again?

"Kremlin affiliated media first proudly reported the #Kramatorsk massacre, claiming their missile hit an ammunition train that arrived yesterday evening."



35/
Keep in mind: We can't prove that our estimated launch sites are the ones that targetted Kramatorsk, based on this information.

We shared all our information with @bellingcat.

We remain available if necessary and also continue our own GeoConfimed investigations.

36/
Special thanks to our volunteers: @doppelot, @Noobieshunta_, @a_vikulin, @gfusfus, @rollowastaken, @neonhandrail, @kargolow, @SpadeAc12112006,
@OSINT_Amateur, @sammy7000, @zcjbrooker, @Cosmonaut19

from @GeoConfirmed.

(Give them a follow)

37/
And

@DanielBanas_sk, @Nrg8000, @BeMilInterests for the extra help.

Also we want to thank the OSINT community for supporting us and providing us with enough information.

This is a team effort!

Updates wil be placed under this thread with xx/

38/
Please keep in mind that any launch site could have been used for the attack on Kramatorsk:

Not every launch is filmed, on the contrary, and both parties use a lot of missiles.

We wanted to demonstrate that it was possible and Russia has the Tochka-U in use.

39/
Some people are attacking our claim that Russia uses the Tochka, they argue that a BAZ-5921 and a BAZ-5922 can also be used for other euh 'things'.
Wrong.

The BAZ-5921 and BAZ-5922 have been specially developed for using Tochka.



40/
Here you see the launcher: TEL 9P129. (BAZ-5921)

In my very basic and fast drawing (sorry for that) you will see pictures from sightings in Belarus mixed with pictures from Russian military parades.

They match.

Roof = metal with hatches
Cabin is longer. (Wheel)

41/ Image
Here you see the transportation and loading vehicle: RTV 9T218. (BAZ-5922)

Roof = Canope
Cabine = shorter --> before wheel.

Again i mixed pictures from sightings in Belarus with pictures from Russian military parades.

They match.

42/ Image
Normally every TEL 9P129 is accompanied by 2 RTV 9T218 (doctrine)

So let's watch the sighting again:

We count:
4x RTV 9T218
4x TEL 9P129

So not a 1:2 ratio.
But what do we see in the trucks?
5x trucks with 9 missile tubes.



43/
So maybe they had some shortages on RTV 9T218, who knows?

Let's watch the other sighting:

We count:
4x RTV 9T218
2x TEL 9P129

= 1:2 ratio.



44/
Some people claim this could also be an explanation for the sightings.

WRONG

The 1L269 Credo-1S surveillance radar has a different front cabine.

All the pictures seems to be from the same vehicle --> As far as we know it was a prototype.

45/ ImageImage
We we made one mistake in tweet 16:
The BAZ-5921 and the BAZ-5922 is not only made for the Tochka-U (like we said in that tweet) but for all the Tochka versions. But the Tochka-U is the most updated version...



46/
Why would Russia drive around with the 1:2 ratio, empty containers, empty TEL 9P129 and empty RTV 9T218 and even fly them in to Belarus?
🧐

...

So we can definitely assume that this system is operational and they are using it or will use it.



47/
Why the serial number isn't an issue at all.
(Like we stated before)

All missiles with similar serial number were manufactured in the former soviet union in the same plant...



48/
Russian trolls are spreading disinformation on the Kramatorsk strike. An interesting breakdown 👇



49/
50/
"Attack on #Krematorsk, early footage"

"We’ve been able to visually confirm that a banned cluster bomb was used in last week’s attack on Kramatorsk railway station in Ukraine which killed more than 50."



51/
52/

"Cluster munition marks on road near the #Kramatorsk railway station where there was the missile attack on 8 April"

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More from @GeoConfirmed

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Oct 6
GeoConfirmed Investigation - October 7th 2023 - Publication of the map.

geoconfirmed.org/7oct

Also named Operation Al-Aqsa Flood - Black Sabbath - Simchat Torah Massacre - the 7 October attacks.

In the early morning of October 7th, different factions, likely coordinated by The Palestinian Joint Operations Room, launched a major attack launched on Israeli territory. It is considered one of the deadliest days in Israeli history, with a total of 1,195 people killed according to official figures, including 815 Israeli civilians (including 36 children), 71 foreign nationals, and 379 members of Israeli security forces. In addition, 251 hostages were taken, many still in captivity, creating the worst hostage crisis in Israeli history.

(Sources: france24.com/en/live-news/2…
csis.org/analysis/hamas…
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_7…)

The GeoConfirmed volunteer team has undertaken the ambitious task of investigating and documenting the events of that day.

For over 2 years, our volunteers have collected and analyzed publicly available footage, establishing their locations and a timeline of the events. Despite experience monitoring multiple conflicts, the footage from that day is among the most disturbing that they have ever encountered. However, due to the proliferation of misinformation about these events, we believe it is important to organize the footage in one place and index it in space and time so that anyone with doubts can see what happened with their own eyes.

Though we have chosen to publish our map, there are still hundreds of additional frames awaiting analysis. But, given the gravity of the events on that day, we have decided to move forward with publication of our map, rather than waiting for the analysis of the additional frames, which could take several more months. The time of our volunteers is a finite resource, and we continue to monitor global conflicts, including the wars in Ukraine, Myanmar, Gaza, Sahel region and more. Our hope is that publication now will encourage others to share open-source efforts at documenting the October 7th attack.

Terminology

For this investigation, the following terminology is used:

Militants: Individuals assessed to be Palestinian, carrying weapons or identified by other markings like headbands.
We use this as a category for all militant groups involved in the attack. Other options were fighters, insurgents, terrorists, or unlawful combatants, but because the appropriate use of such designations depends on many factors, some hard to measure, we decided to use the term “militants.”

Israeli Security Personnel: Individuals identified by their uniforms and gear, including military (IDF), police, and other armed security.

Palestinian/Israeli Civilians: Individuals dressed in civilian clothing, without any visible weapon.

Methodology

A significant portion of the footage in this investigation comes from GoPro cameras worn by militants involved in the attack, most collected after they were killed by Israeli security personnel. Other footage was recorded by first responders, security forces, and civilians using cell phones, dash cams, and surveillance cameras. Almost all of it is collected from social media networks such as X/Twitter and Telegram.

Geolocations are determined using well-established methods, comparing features visible in the footage with satellite and panorama imagery that is publicly available from tools like Google Earth and Google Street View. Each geolocation is accompanied by a proof, an annotated diagram used to explain the geolocation analysis, typically as X/Twitter posts published by our volunteers. Readers can thus verify for themselves the geolocations published on our map.

The timeline of events is based on comparison of the footage, sun angle, and other contextual clues. While locations can be determined precisely, timing is an informed assessment.

Militant Groups

(Picture source: longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/……)

There are different Palestinian militant factions under an umbrella group known as The Palestinian Joint Operations Room, and some of those factions are designated as terrorist organizations by the US, EU and other nations.

eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/…

Militant groups can at times be recognized by the well-known color and style of headbands that they wear. At other times, a group’s participation can be inferred when they publish footage and claim responsibility on their official social media channels.

For our October 7 map, we have chosen to align the pin colors with the corresponding militant groups involved. For example, if you want to view all geolocated footage involving hostages, you should select the hostage icon from each faction (represented by different colors) to display all related incidents on the map.
Identified participation of militant groups based on the visual headbands in footage regarding Oct 7th 2023:

(Some of those also identified by @BBC Verify: bbc.com/news/world-mid…)

Green: Hamas, Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades
Map colour: Dark Green

Black: Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), Al-Quds Brigades
Map colour: Black

Black: Palestinian Mujahideen Movement, Mujahideen Brigades
Map colour: Grey

White: Palestinian Freedom Movement, Al-Ansar Brigades
Map Colour: White

Red: Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PLFP), Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades
Map Colour: Red

Red: Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, National Resistance brigades, also known as Martyr Omar Al-Qassem Forces or Martyr Omar Al-Qasim Forces.
Map Colour: Pink

Yellow: al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades
Map Colour: Yellow

Other used colours:
Dark Blue: Israeli Security Personnel
Light Blue: Israeli Civilians
Brown: Palestinian civilians
Light Green: Palestinian Militants of unknown affiliation
Purple: Unknown affiliation (Could be Israeli or Palestinian)

(Picture source: en.milligazete.com.tr/press_release_……)

Based on all the footage we have seen, some of our insights about this attack:

On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched a coordinated and unprecedented attack on Israel. The assault began around 6:30 a.m., at sunrise, with a massive barrage of rockets fired from Gaza into southern and central Israel, overwhelming defense systems.

As rockets rained down and all non-essential Israeli personnel and civilians took shelter, the first wave of militants from various factions began their assault on the heavily fortified border.
To initiate the attack, they deployed bomber drones to disable the remote-controlled machine guns positioned on the watchtowers. Using explosives and bulldozers, they breached the border fences and walls, creating multiple entry points.

Some militants infiltrated Israel by sea near Zikim, while others used motorized paragliders to cross into Israeli territory, tactics that had been rehearsed in joint drills prior to the attack.
After the border defenses were breached, the militants advanced toward IDF bases, where they killed and captured Israeli soldiers. Due to the lack of defenses and the rapid pace of the operation, the militants soon began raiding nearby kibbutzim. They showed no mercy to anyone they encountered, resulting in the deaths of hundreds of civilians—sometimes in extremely brutal ways, including throat-cutting. Cars and houses were set on fire.

During the attack, homes were set on fire, and widespread looting took place, with Palestinian militans and civilians stealing property, equipment, and even animals from the affected communities. The sheer number of attackers, including both militants and civilians, overwhelmed local defenders and contributed to the scale of violence and abductions.

Based on available footage, the first wave consisted of well-equipped militants wearing military gear and carrying weapons, from RPGs to sniper rifles.
They used trucks, including technicals, and motorcycles to move quickly.

This initial group was followed by a second wave: armed Palestinian civilians: dressed in civilian clothing but carrying weapons. Before noon a third wave arrived: Palestinian civilians, numbering in the hundreds or possibly thousands, who crossed the border to loot Israeli kibbutzim.

Footage also showed not only militants but also Palestinian civilians taking hostages during the chaos. As hostages were transported back to Gaza, the hostage-takers were cheered by Palestinian civilians, some of whom spat on or beat the captives as they passed. Armed militants also brought some hostages to Palestinian hospitals.

It took the IDF several hours to, and in some areas multiple days, to fully clear the region of militants, as they confronted the aftermath of one of the largest terrorist attacks in Israel’s history.

We want to caution you that some of the footage from October 7, 2023, shared in this thread may be very graphic, as we have selected videos to highlight the intensity and harshness of the events on that day.

Credits

This is a @GeoConfirmed Investigation conducted by @TwistyCB, @GeoRaccoon, @davidnewschool, @COUPSURE and @MiddleEastBuka, @adler_zvi and @KJ_X23 with the support of @PowerPigeon2.

We want to thank all the other geolocators and the full geolocation community, without their geolocations and support this investigation wouldn't have the same value as it has now.

In the following days/weeks/months we will keep updating this map when new geolocated footage emerges.

If you like our work you can buy us a coffee.
buymeacoffee.com/geoconfirmed

This helps:

Improving our maps and user interface.
Improving data management.
Buying Sat Img for confirmations and investigations.

More information about our work:
World: geoconfirmed.org/world (500+)
Ukraine: geoconfirmed.org/ukraine (49000+)
Sahel: geoconfirmed.org/sahel (830+)
Syria: geoconfirmed.org/syria (1050+)
Israel: geoconfirmed.org/israel (6400+)
Iran: geoconfirmed.org/iran (300+)
Yemen: geoconfirmed.org/yemen (200+)
Myanmar: geoconfirmed.org/myanmar (780+)
Cartel Map: geoconfirmed.org/cartel (500+)

Thanks to all our volunteers all over the world!

1/xImage
Image
Image
Image
Over 1,000 videos analyzed and more than 500 geolocations mapped.

Our map:

We want to caution you that some of the footage from October 7, 2023, shared in this thread may be very graphic, as we have selected videos to highlight the intensity and harshness of the events on that day.

2/xgeoconfirmed.org/7octImage
Vid 1 - Right before sunrise militants of Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, military wing of Hamas, blew a hole in the border wall near Kerem Shalom.

31.22995, 34.28153
67HJ+XJJ Kerem Shalom, Israel

Vid 2 - After the militants breached the border fence they also breached the wall, protecting Kerem Shalom, with explosives, before entering the kibbutz.

31.22822, 34.28154
67HJ+7JM Kerem Shalom, Israel

GeoLocated by @JoshuaKoontz__

Geolocation:
x.com/joshuakoontz__…
x.com/joshuakoontz__…

Sources:
t.me/southfirstresp…
t.me/southfirstresp…

Visit our map: geoconfirmed.org/7oct

3/x
Read 24 tweets
GeoConfirmed Profile picture
Apr 13
GeoConfirmed UKR.

Another devistating missile attack by Russia in the middle of Sumy, the capital city of Sumy Oblast.

The attack, reportedly involving two missiles, occurred during Palm Sunday, a significant religious holiday in Ukraine, when many people typically visit churches and/or spend time with their families.

The horrific attack has already resulted in 21 fatalities and 34 injuries, including 5 children, according to initial reports.

0:06 - Damaged Congress Centre -
50.905909, 34.794115
WQ4V+9J9 Sumy, Sumy Oblast, Ukraine

0:25 - Location of the civilian casualties - 50.905071, 34.794703
WQ4V+2VG Sumy, Sumy Oblast, Ukraine

GeoLocated by @99Dominik_

Geolocation:
x.com/99Dominik_/sta…
x.com/99Dominik_/sta…

Location: geoconfirmed.org/ukraine/e082f4…

Sources: x.com/bayraktar_1lov…
Read 4 tweets
GeoConfirmed Profile picture
Apr 5
GeoConfirmed ISR - Warcrime.

IDF soldiers ambushed multiple ambulances, a fire truck and their personnel (15+), killing them on-site, burying the bodies along with the vehicles (according to NYT based on sattelite imagery)(!) and lied about the circumstances (!). It took 5 more days before IDF allowed safe passage to search for the missing first responders. (!)

A spokesperson for the IDF, Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani (@LTC_Shoshani), issued a statement on March 31, now demonstrated to be FALSE by emerging evidence, asserting

"Uncoordinated vehicles were identified advancing suspiciously toward IDF troops without headlights or emergency signals."

The footage provides conclusive proof that:
The ambulances and fire truck were unmistakably operating as emergency vehicles, with their lights activated, and the personnel were wearing their reflective gear.

(Statement by IDF spokeperson
x.com/LTC_Shoshani/s…)

This incident has been described as one of the most severe potential war crimes attributed to the IDF.

Reportedly it represented the single deadliest attack on Red Cross and Red Crescent Society workers anywhere in the world since 2017.

Eventually, rescue teams uncovered the ambulances and the remains of 14 paramedics and 1 UN employee who had been reported missing. 1 is reportedly still missing.

More information:

nytimes.com/2025/04/04/wor…

31.323398, 34.243681
8G3P86FV+9F

GeoLocated by @AbuLocation

Geolocation:
x.com/AbuLocation/st…
x.com/AbuLocation/st… x.com/AbuLocation/st… x.com/AbuLocation/st…

Location: geoconfirmed.org/israel/b7b2c58…

Sources: Vid1
x.com/PalestineRCS/s…
Vid2
x.com/EyeonPalestine… Vid3 x.com/AbuLocation/st…
Vid 4 x.com/UNOCHA/status/… (Pic) t.me/dcdgaza/8998 x.com/AbuLocation/st… (Statement 1) x.com/PalestineRCS/s… (Statement 2) x.com/ifrc/status/19…
More information:

nytimes.com/2025/04/04/wor…
Related footage:
Read 7 tweets
GeoConfirmed Profile picture
Feb 20
GeoConfirmed UKR - Misinformation by President Trump.

While we typically refrain from political commentary, President Donald Trump's recent statement regarding the war in Ukraine is so egregious that we feel compelled to respond.

Several claims made by President Trump have already been debunked. We've included responses from Grok AI for each claim, demonstrating that even Grok refutes the misinformation spread by the president.

In this thread, we will provide geolocated footage as a reminder to everyone that Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, marking the beginning of this war.

1)
The United States has not spent $350 billion on this war, nor has it outspent Europe by $200 billion. In fact, European contributions have surpassed those of the US. Moreover, a significant portion of the American military aid (around 90% !) is spend in the US, reinvesting in the US economy.

statista.com/statistics/149…

eeas.europa.eu/delegations/un…

ifw-kiel.de/publications/n…

csis.org/analysis/where…

(Grok: x.com/i/grok/share/9…)

2)
President Zelensky did not claim that half the American money sent to Ukraine is "missing". He stated that half of the promised funds had not been received, which is a crucial distinction.

csis.org/analysis/where…

politifact.com/factchecks/202…

edition.cnn.com/2025/02/19/pol…

(Grok: x.com/i/grok/share/x…)

3)
Ukrainian constitution prohibits elections during wartime, a measure designed to protect the democratic process from foreign interference, particularly given Russia's known capabilities in this area...

foreignpolicy.com/2023/07/11/ukr…

edition.cnn.com/2024/03/30/eur…

united24media.com/war-in-ukraine…

(Grok: x.com/i/grok/share/i…)

4)
President Zelensky is not a dictator, as evidenced by Ukraine's constitutional framework and his commitment to holding elections once hostilities cease. In contrast, it's worth noting that President Putin consistently wins elections in Russia with implausibly high percentages of votes, with opposition that 'falls out of windows", is poisened or jailed, raising questions about the true nature of Russia's electoral process.

europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document…

oscepa.org/en/news-a-medi…

osce.usmission.gov/on-the-russian…

japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/03/1…

bbc.com/news/world-eur…

(Grok: x.com/i/grok/share/a…)

5)
President Zelensky has a approval rate above 50% and not 4%. 4% is Russian disinformation.

edition.cnn.com/2025/02/19/pol…

kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=…

euronews.com/2025/02/19/zel…

abcnews.go.com/International/…

(Grok: x.com/i/grok/share/I…)

6)
There was no NATO expansion to the East, as NATO itself cannot expand. Instead, democratic countries independently decide whether they want to become members of the alliance. The process of joining NATO is voluntary and involves multiple steps, including meeting specific requirements and completing a formal application process.

The fact that many of Russia's former neighbors have chosen to seek NATO membership speaks volumes about their perception of Russia and their desire for collective security.

The decision of these nations to pursue NATO membership reflects their sovereign right to determine their own foreign policy and security arrangements. It also indicates a preference for the stability and security guarantees that NATO membership offers, rather than remaining under Russian influence.

Regarding the famous 'promise':
Article 103 of the UN Charter establishes a clear hierarchy in international law. It states that obligations under the UN Charter prevail over obligations under any other international agreement in case of conflict. This supremacy extends beyond just treaties, as it is generally understood to also apply to customary international law.
The hierarchy can be summarized as follows:

1) UN Charter obligations
2) Other treaties and customary international law
3) Non-treaty international texts
4) Political promises or commitments
5) Historical claims

Russia's invasion of Ukraine clearly violates fundamental principles of the UN Charter, including the prohibition on the use of force against the territorial integrity of another state. Any attempts to justify this action based on lower-ranking considerations like political promises or historical claims are legally irrelevant.

euvsdisinfo.eu/report/there-i…

nato.int/cps/ra/natohq/…

iir.cz/lies-provocati…

(Grok: x.com/i/grok/share/f… and x.com/i/grok/share/N… and x.com/i/grok/share/N…)

8)
Who initiated this nearly three-year-long war? RUSSIA.

As a platform that has analyzed over 50,000 frames/videos related to the conflict, we will remind the president ,with geolocated footage, who started this war: RUSSIA.

Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, despite repeatedly denying any plans for invasion in the preceding days.

x.com/Mike_Pence/sta…

edition.cnn.com/2025/02/19/pol…

(Grok: x.com/i/grok/share/m…)

---

24 FEB 2022 - Russian tanks crossing the border from Belarus into Ukraine in Senkivka.

52.106063, 31.780644
4Q4J+C7C Sen'kivka, Chernihiv Oblast, Ukraine

Sources: x.com/conflicts/stat…

1/11
24 FEB 2022 - Dozens of attack helikopters flying towards Antonov International Airport near Kiyv.

50.596695, 30.500903
HGW2+M9C Vyshhorod, Kyiv Oblast, Ukraine

GeoLocated by @AugustGraham

Geolocation: x.com/augustgraham/s…

Location: geoconfirmed.org/ukraine/0215e3…

Sources: x.com/ralee85/status…

2/11
24 FEB 2022 - About 30 Russian helicopters engaged in attacking Antonov International Airport (Hostomel)

50.583768, 30.254727
H7M3+GV5 Hostomel', Kyiv Oblast, Ukraine

GeoLocated by @Cen4infoRes

Geolocation: x.com/cen4infores/st…

Location: geoconfirmed.org/ukraine/593743…

Sources: x.com/deanobeano1/st…

3/11
Read 11 tweets
GeoConfirmed Profile picture
Jan 8
GeoConfirmed UKR - Investigation

When Ukraine undertakes offensive operations, Russia attempts to manipulate/influence the information environment.

For nearly three years, we have been monitoring the war in Ukraine, and another notable trend has emerged:
whenever Ukraine initiates an offensive operation, social media becomes inundated with claims of significant Ukrainian losses. However, we have observed that these claims often consist of disinformation: they may reference outdated losses, incidents from different regions, or even Russian losses reported as Ukrainian losses... (I kid you not).
This misinformation is often compiled in a way that suggests Ukraine's offensive efforts are failing, thereby attempting to sway public perception.

Recently, as Ukraine commenced an offensive operation (January 4th, 2025), again bold claims were made about Ukrainian losses.

We took a few days to investigate two specific assertions: one from a relatively small account named @NewRulesGeo and another from 'North Wind,' a Russian channel associated with the military.

The thread by NewRulesGeo garnered over 4 million views, while the post by North Wind attracted nearly 100,000 views on Telegram.

As anticipated, the reality is not as it appears.
For an account calling itself NewRulesGeo, it is striking that the individual does not grasp that geolocation is accurate. A significant portion of their thread is unrelated to the newly launched Kursk operation; it includes either older footage, irrelevant content, or different videos of the same vehicle being attacked while implying they depict different vehicles, and they guess the outcome of strikes without any proof.
Some of the footage was indeed from the recent Ukrainian offensive operations in Kursk Oblast, and by mixing it with unrelated material, they attempt to enhance their credibility. This is a well-known technique in spreading disinformation: combining accurate information with falsehoods. People tend to recognize the accurate claims and, as a result, may assign greater credibility to the entire narrative, including the disinformation.

Regarding the North Wind post, the considerable number of vehicles shown at the end of their video are actually Russian vehicles destroyed in mid-December. They misrepresent their own losses as Ukrainian losses.

We prefer not to invest too much time in debunking disinformation, as a lie can be made in just a few minutes, but the debunking can cost you days.
For example, this fact-check took us several days and the effort of a few dedicated volunteers.

I want to thank volunteers @giK1893, @99Dominik_, @moklasen and @GeoRaccoon for their geolocation work, making this thread possible.

We hope our fact-checking thread receives more than 4 million views, because mis-/ and disinformation is a plague on X and Facts DO Matter.

1/20Image
We will start by the North Wind claim.

"In the area of ​​the settlement of Berdin in the Kursk region, several columns of armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine attempted to attack the positions of the Severyans. For most of the armored vehicles and tanks, as well as their crews, the counteroffensive ended as soon as it began. FPV crews, operators of the Lancet loitering munitions, artillery and mortar crews of the Guards "North" actively struck enemy targets. We see the results in the footage.

Such a quantity of "smoking trash of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" clearly shows the attitude of the Ukrainian command to its servicemen. This was another ruthless "meat" assault in the style of Syrsky, and the units of the Guards "North" successfully repelled it."

Ironically, the large number of losses depicted starting at 0:29 are Russian losses incurred during their offensive in mid-December while attacking Ukrainian-occupied territory in Kursk from the west.

Source: t.me/warriorofnorth…
Full video.

2/20Image
Proof:

Geolocation: 51.311532, 35.063038

Great factchecking by @giK1893 in this thread: x.com/giK1893/status…

Picture one:
Geolocation of the Russian losses:
- based on the information provided by ukr.warspotting.net:
ukr.warspotting.net/view/32650/ ukr.warspotting.net/view/32569/ ukr.warspotting.net/view/32961/ ukr.warspotting.net/view/32642/
- based on a video of the Ukrainian 36th Marine Brigade , published 17 December 2024, the showing all the Russian losses in the region: t.me/ua_marines_36b…

Picture two:
Green circle: Russian losses mid-December
Blue arrows: Ukrainian offensive operations which started January 4th, 2025.

Video: Russian losses filmed by the Ukrainian 36th Marine Brigade, published 17 December 2024

Conclusion: North Wind has presented Russian losses from mid-December, misrepresenting them as Ukrainian losses from the recent offensive. Geolocation analysis has confirmed that this footage does not even originate from the area of the recent offensive.

3/20Image
Image
Read 20 tweets
GeoConfirmed Profile picture
Oct 10, 2024
GeoConfirmed Investigation - Thread 3 - October 7th 2023.

Thread 3 - 'Nahal Oz' area.

This thread contains footage of the Nahal Oz area.

At least four different factions participated in the assault on the military base near Nahal Oz and the kibbutz itself:

a) Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, military wing of Hamas.
b) Al-Quds Brigades, military wing of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
c) Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades.
d) Palestinian Freedom Movement, Al-Ansar Brigades

---

If any new geolocated footage related to this topic becomes available in the future, it will be added at the end of this thread.

---

If you like our work you can buy us a coffee (buymeacoffee.com/geoconfirmed)
By doing so, you are enabling us to enhance our website and servers, and allowing us to buy satellite imagery for our investigations.

1/XImage
GeoConfirmed 7OCT23.

At sunrise, a large convoy of Palestinian militants, over 30, drive towards Israel in jeeps and with motorcycles. They drive in the direction of Nahal Oz, whilst outgoing rocket fire can be heard and seen.

31.490668, 34.481061
8G3PFFRJ+7C

GeoLocated by @TwistyCB

Geolocation: x.com/TwistyCB/statu…

Location: geoconfirmed.org/7oct/bcfff4a5-…

Sources:
t.me/PalpostN/222948 t.me/asmailpress/76… t.me/newss/140688 x.com/TwistyCB/statu…

2/X
GeoConfirmed 7OCT23.

Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, military wing of Hamas drone bombing a remote machine gun on a tower near Kfar Aza, Israel

31.498647, 34.514034
FGX7+FJ3 Kfar Aza, Israel

GeoLocated by @0Khit, @GeoRaccoon, @PowerPigeon2 and @PeterLu37121201

Geolocation: x.com/geoconfirmed/s… x.com/0khit/status/1… x.com/georaccoon/sta…
x.com/powerpigeon2/s…
x.com/peterlu3712120…

Location: geoconfirmed.org/7oct/effb2319-…

Sources: x.com/warmonitors/st…
x.com/manniefabian/s…
x.com/war_noir/statu…

3/X
Read 31 tweets

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