Thread by @GeoConfirmed

The "#Kramatorsk" strike, our third thread.

We managed to geolocate two different launch locations based on 9 GeoConfirmations.

We don't know how long this thread will be and additional information later on will also be placed in this thread, so we number it "xx/"

01/

At least 50 people, including five children, were killed after a missile strike on a railway station in Kramatorsk, eastern Ukraine, that was being used by civilians trying to flee the fighting, Ukrainian officials said Friday.

There were 2 impacts:

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1512365485614145545

02/

So after we confirmed the impacts, we started looking for every sighting of possible launches we found.

And we started GeoConfirming them.

Soon it became clear ALL the launch sightings, we could confirm, came from Russian occupied territory in Donbass region.

Map by @isw.

03/

For this reason we will not post GeoConfirmed sightings. In some occasions we can even guess from wich appartement the footage was made and we do not want to endanger the person who filmed it.

We hope you all will respect this also.

Map from @Liveuamap

04/

We added the direction of the smoke on the map and we concluded 2 possible launch sites:

Sadove (Садове) and between Hirne (Гірне) and Ternove (Тернове)

This is based on the direction from 9 GeoConfirmed locations. Smoke is impacted by wind, so we drew boxes.

05/

For these estimated launch boxes we took in consideration all the GeoConfirmed launches from 07 and 08 April.
Timings = video's with timing in local time (EEST)

The Strike was around 10:30.

"Sadove box":
All 08/04:
10:26
10:26
11:17
t.me/shortDPR/22000

06/

"Ternove box":
07 10:43
07 11:00
07 11:12
07 11:40
08 15:56
08 16:14

Regarding the attack on Kramatorsk, 2 videos of launches appear to have been posted just before or after the impact.

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1511972962349559808

07/

These launch boxes are 101km (Sadove) and 109km (Ternove) away from Kramatorsk.

We can't confirm, by watching the sightings, what was launched, but we will take look if it's even possible with that distance.

08/

In tweet 02/ you could see we used a third yellow marker:
This is where they found the engine of a Tochka-U.

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1512370780142714883

09/

It is confirmed as the engine of Tochka-U by military experts.

9M79-1 = Tochka-U,
the '1' = U version.

Italian TV channel La7 has filmed the 9M79-1. (PIC 3)

More information on the difference:

armyrecognition.com/russia_russian…

militaryrussia.ru/blog/topic-191…

10/

We did not use the angle of the motor impact to determine the possible launch direction.
Why?

The engine of a Tochka-U separates from the warhead at 2km and freefalls from there. It gets resistance from the weather elements like wind.

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1512445329161191425

11/

"24 MARCH - At 7:45 AM, a Tochka-U SRBM was fired towards the landing ships Saratov, Tsesar Kunikov, and Novocherkassk." reported by @GrangerE04117

Why is this interesting?

You can see the motor flying further and rotating 👇(00.08 - 00.11)

https://twitter.com/SkyWolf83194898/status/1512492640461283329

12/

The SS-21 Scarab (Russian name: 9M79 "Tochka") is a Russian-made short-range ballistic missile.
The Tochka-U is an improved version of the Tochka using a new missile propellant to increase the range to 120 km and an improved CEP (Circular Error Probable) to less than 95 m.

13/

Components:

- 9P129: Launcher unit
- 9T218: transporter loader (TL)
- 9T222 (9T238): transport vehicle
- 9V819: automated checkup and testing vehicle
- 9V844: maintenance vehicle
- 9F370: ammunition equipment set
- 9Ya234 missile and 9Ya warhead containers

14/

A new 3-axle amphibious chassis BAZ-5921 and BAZ-5922 were a future development of the first range of machines 5937/5939 and were made for a new rocket complex. It called 9K79 "Point" and consisted of two main systems - launcher 9P129 and loader 9T218.
trucksplanet.com/catalog/model.…
15/

Point = Tochka-U.
The BAZ-5921 is developed ONLY for the Tochka-U.
Versions with another goal were only prototypes.

Max speed = 120km in 136 sec.

Pictures by @ArmyRecognition and
sixmania.fr/en/baz-5921-ch…

16/

Our estimated launch areas are within range for a Tochka-U.

But does Russia is still operating the Tochka-U?

Short answer: Yes.
Long answer 👇

Russia announced it would replace them with Iskander. This also means they definitely have them in storage...

17/

28 NOVEMBER 2016: "Missile, Rocket and Tube Artillery Corps will fully replace the Tochka-U (NATO reporting name: SS-21 Scarab-B) tactical ballistic missile system with the Iskander-M (SS-26 Stone) complex by 2020."

armyrecognition.com/november_2016_…

18/

But didn't replaced them all, on the contrary:

"In 2020, the newly formed 47th missile and 238th artillery brigades were deployed on the territory of the military garrison of the city of Korenovsk (Krasnodar Territory)."

Source: bmpd.livejournal.com/4379253.html

19/

On February 20, 2021, an open day was held, which presented samples of weapons from units of the Korenovsky garrison:

The 47th missile brigade is armed with the 9K79 Tochka-U missile system.

kuban24.tv/item/v-korenov…

20/

The 47th missile and 238th artillery brigades were formed as part of the 8th combined arms army.

09 MAY 2021: Korenovsk-parade.

Watch minute 2.49 👇



and:

https://twitter.com/halmiso1/status/1429386364580159495

21/

The 8th combined arms army is fighting in Ukraïne:

"AFU Air Force destroys advanced command post of 8th Combined Arms Army of Southern Military District of Russia at airfield in Chornobayivka – Arestovych"
(General was killed)

interfax.com.ua/news/general/8…

22/

Report from @TheStudyofWar march 19.

"Russian forces concentrated considerable combat power around Mariupol drawn from the 8th Combined Arms Army to the east and from the group of Russian forces in Crimea to the west"

understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…

23/

Report from @TheStudyofWar April 08, day of the attack.

"Russia’s 8th Combined Arms Army (operating in Donbas) is equipped with the missile."

--> The Russian unit in the area of our estimated launch sites has the Tochka-U.

understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…

24/

06 MARCH: @CITeam_en concluded that Russia used the Tochka-U in the war:

"Russia is now using older Tochka-U missile launchers against Ukraine, as seen in Desnyanka, 40 km from the border with Belarus."

https://twitter.com/citeam_en/status/1500475853490343936

25/

Other Sightings:

18 MAR:
"New batch of Tochka-U tactical ballistic missiles was brought to Belarus.

Today at 14:12 (Minsk time), Russian An-124 Ruslan heavy cargo aircraft landed at the airfield in Machulishchy (Minsk region)."

https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1504828927562424321

26/

30 MAR

"A column of Russian equipment with “V” marks was moving from Rechitsa towards Gomel, Belarus.
There were at least 8 Tochka-U, several BTR-82a, about 9 KamAZ trucks, some of which are carrying Tochka-U missiles,..."

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1513082219656589314

27/

31 MAR: Area Gomel, Belarus.

Russian vehicles on train in #Gomel, #Belarus

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1509598942438297604

28/

Additional information:

Tweet 28:

The ones with the plastic roof are 9T218 transporter loader (TL) with spare missiles; (Pic 01) = 4 vehicles visible

The ones with the metal roof are 9P129 Launcher units. (Pic 2) = 2 vehicles visible

29/

Why would Russia use Tochka-U if they have 9K720 Iskander?

Because their Iskender stock is rapidly shrinking due to the fierce Ukrainian resistance...
And they have them, so why not use it...

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OTR-21_To…

30/

But what about the serial number?

Serial numbers have no value in this:

1: You can easily adjust them
2: Russia has captured several Ukrainian ammunition depots during this war...
So they can perfectly have missiles with Ukrainian serial numbers.

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1513064838188212229

31/

Why Russia attacked Kramatorsk?

An imporant railroad and its a strategic city for Donbass. --> Ukrainian troop movement is also by train.
Russia attacked other railroads and stations on 07 April:
Mentioned here:
t.me/truexanewsua/3…

And here:
ukrinform.ua/rubric-regions…

32/

An other question: why should Ukraine attack Kramatorsk and blame it on Russia?

Russia has already commited a dozen WarCrimes, why would this one make a huge difference that Ukraïne is willing to place their friendship with the West on the line?
Ukraine needs the railroads.

33/

This was Kramatorsk on 07 April 2022:

"Video from #Kramatorsk train station. All the people trapped. Now you understand why mothers write contact details on their children’s bodies."

https://twitter.com/lesiavasylenko/status/1512106720948019211

34/

Did we already mention it was MH17 all over again?

"Kremlin affiliated media first proudly reported the #Kramatorsk massacre, claiming their missile hit an ammunition train that arrived yesterday evening."

https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1512365048018132997

35/

Keep in mind: We can't prove that our estimated launch sites are the ones that targetted Kramatorsk, based on this information.

We shared all our information with @bellingcat.

We remain available if necessary and also continue our own GeoConfimed investigations.

36/

Special thanks to our volunteers: @doppelot, @Noobieshunta_, @a_vikulin, @gfusfus, @rollowastaken, @neonhandrail, @kargolow, @SpadeAc12112006,
@OSINT_Amateur, @sammy7000, @zcjbrooker, @Cosmonaut19

from @GeoConfirmed.

(Give them a follow)

37/

And

@DanielBanas_sk, @Nrg8000, @BeMilInterests for the extra help.

Also we want to thank the OSINT community for supporting us and providing us with enough information.

This is a team effort!

Updates wil be placed under this thread with xx/

38/

Please keep in mind that any launch site could have been used for the attack on Kramatorsk:

Not every launch is filmed, on the contrary, and both parties use a lot of missiles.

We wanted to demonstrate that it was possible and Russia has the Tochka-U in use.

39/

Some people are attacking our claim that Russia uses the Tochka, they argue that a BAZ-5921 and a BAZ-5922 can also be used for other euh 'things'.
Wrong.

The BAZ-5921 and BAZ-5922 have been specially developed for using Tochka.

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1513335141988540425

40/

Here you see the launcher: TEL 9P129. (BAZ-5921)

In my very basic and fast drawing (sorry for that) you will see pictures from sightings in Belarus mixed with pictures from Russian military parades.

They match.

Roof = metal with hatches
Cabin is longer. (Wheel)

41/

Here you see the transportation and loading vehicle: RTV 9T218. (BAZ-5922)

Roof = Canope
Cabine = shorter --> before wheel.

Again i mixed pictures from sightings in Belarus with pictures from Russian military parades.

They match.

42/

Normally every TEL 9P129 is accompanied by 2 RTV 9T218 (doctrine)

So let's watch the sighting again:

We count:
4x RTV 9T218
4x TEL 9P129

So not a 1:2 ratio.
But what do we see in the trucks?
5x trucks with 9 missile tubes.

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1513082219656589314

43/

So maybe they had some shortages on RTV 9T218, who knows?

Let's watch the other sighting:

We count:
4x RTV 9T218
2x TEL 9P129

= 1:2 ratio.

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1509598942438297604

44/

Some people claim this could also be an explanation for the sightings.

WRONG

The 1L269 Credo-1S surveillance radar has a different front cabine.

All the pictures seems to be from the same vehicle --> As far as we know it was a prototype.

45/

We we made one mistake in tweet 16:
The BAZ-5921 and the BAZ-5922 is not only made for the Tochka-U (like we said in that tweet) but for all the Tochka versions. But the Tochka-U is the most updated version...

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1513316263778467844

46/

Why would Russia drive around with the 1:2 ratio, empty containers, empty TEL 9P129 and empty RTV 9T218 and even fly them in to Belarus?
🧐

...

So we can definitely assume that this system is operational and they are using it or will use it.

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1513335143905349640

47/

Why the serial number isn't an issue at all.
(Like we stated before)

All missiles with similar serial number were manufactured in the former soviet union in the same plant...

https://twitter.com/marcowenjones/status/1513166878696476677

48/

Russian trolls are spreading disinformation on the Kramatorsk strike. An interesting breakdown 👇

https://twitter.com/marcowenjones/status/1513166861579735042

49/

50/

"Attack on #Krematorsk, early footage"

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1513995086484455427

"We’ve been able to visually confirm that a banned cluster bomb was used in last week’s attack on Kramatorsk railway station in Ukraine which killed more than 50."

https://twitter.com/manisha_bot/status/1514146613442359299

51/

52/

"Cluster munition marks on road near the #Kramatorsk railway station where there was the missile attack on 8 April"

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1514401700349726729