Alright folks, this is going to be a long logistical thread🧵 where I will try and make the case that that advanced US weapons systems like the Patriot SAM, M1A1 Abrams tank & F-16 with AMRAAM can be both rapidly transitioned & effectively used by Ukraine.
It won't be cheap 1/
...to do.
I going to walk you all through about 37 years of US military history (1985-2022) with an emphasis on the concepts of "Contractor Logistical Support" and "Private Military Corporations" with a bit of history involving the personnel policies of Claire Chennault's 2/
Flying Tigers thrown in.
Trust me, it's needed.😉
In the late Cold War year of 1985 LOGCAP or “Logistics Civil Augmentation Program” was established primarily to pre-plan for contingencies and to “leverage existing civilian resources.”
Basically, we are talking a contract 3/
...form meant to buy civilian contractor logistics from Germany & other European economies in event of a major NATO land war.
It was not really used in a large way until the 1st Gulf War of 1990-1991, to take advantage of the Saudi and Gulf States civil economies to replace 4/
uniformed American logistical support.
This was as much a political move by the Pres. George H.W. Bush Administration to manage American anti-war, and primarily Democratic anti-war, opposition to the US Military retaking Kuwait as it was primarily a logistical exercise. 5/
LOGCAP was later expanded by the Clinton Administration to cover “operations other than war” in places like Somalia, Southwest Asia, Haiti, the Balkans, and East Timor.
a muscular and multilateral foreign policy with the minimum of senior uniformed military opposition.
Opposition which balked at “operations other than war” as the American Senior military leadership’s version of the “Vietnam War syndrome,” as the US Army’s 7/
deployments during the Kosovo war made clear.
This Clinton Administration “work around” approach to American military “Flag Rank” opposition was hugely apparent with the Croat “Operation Storm” in Bosnia, where the private military corporation 8/
“Military Professional Resources Incorporated” acted as an American military surrogate to plan & execute logistics for the Croat Offensive that broke Serbian power in Bosnia.
Effectively “Private Military Corporation” contractor support has been the keystone of American 9/
...military power projection since the 2nd Clinton Administration. This fact has been documented in a lot of places.
The two Pres. George W. Bush Administrations further expanded the use of LOGCAP after 9-11-2001, not only to manage public opposition to the “War on Terror” but also as a “Fight the War on the Cheap” exercise because your average logistics/garrison specialist first class
11/
...(SFC) with government income, military medical care, education benefits, and housing allowances for three dependents earns arguably $125-150K in “benefits.”
The green eye shades cost account crowd points out that while A DynCorp or Halliburton-KBR contractor costs the 12/
US government up to twice what a SFC costs in terms of annual income, but it is a known, predictable, fixed cost incurred and gone; whereas the Federal government will pay for the SFC and his dependents for another 20+ years in terms of benefits obligated by service.
13/
This was in fact one of the reasons Democrats in Congress hated private military corporations doing uniformed military work in the War on Terror. Their extensive use in the 1st Gulf War plus the ongoing operations in Iraq & Afghanistan hugely reduced the long term
14/
...opportunity for graft and corruption via the Congressional administration of uniformed veterans' education and medical benefits.
The DEA uses a number of private military corporations in the Drug wars in Latin America for aerial electronic surveillance and training of
15/
...local security forces.
The American government also uses a number of private military corporations to furnish spares for things like the ATK built AC208B fixed wing gunship in Iraq. 16/
You can find LOGCAP tweets here on Twitter by major defense contractors.
All the long term training required logistical support necessary to operate a Patriot battery, an M1A1 Abrams Tank and an F-16 with AMRAAM can be hired done via contractor logistical support through a LOGCAP contract.
This includes the weapons system operators.
19/
Folks like Dyncorp or Halliburton-KBR can sub-contract to L3's MPRI division to put together "private military security contractors" for a Patriot Battery, M1A1 tank crews and F-16 pilots w/ground crews.
Pres. Zelensky would then give "security contractors" legal status as
20/
..."Ukrainian Foreign Legion" members for protections under the Laws of War.
However, to do it quickly requires using the kind of Presidential patronage FDR provided to Chennault to hire away active or reserve US Military servicemen.
IOW, give MPRI DoD service files & OPM
21/
recent retirement papers for people with the right MOS series skills to fill out a 'private security units' quickly.
Getting the latest US weapons to Ukraine is a 'money solvable logistics problem' the USA has done for 37 years.
22/
IOW, The Biden Administration 'de-escalation faction' has been looking for excuses not to support Ukraine because it doesn't want to.
I've just shown you they can if they want too.
And if they don't like americans as F-16 'private security pilots.' I'm sure there a lot of
23/
...other non-US F-16 pilots who would love to sign up with "Ukraine's Flying Tigers" in order to paint Su-34 silhouettes on their US surplus Ukrainian F-16's.
24/End
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This is going to be a long thread🧵on the ongoing collapse of the Russian Army and how it is shaping events in Ukraine, including the recent Russian chemical attack on Azov troops in Mariupol.
James Dunnigan's Strategy page -dot- com site put out a long analytical piece on Russian contract soldiers, conscription & the fading away of the Russian Army as a demographic consequence of the aging out of the strategypage.com/htmw/htwin/202…
2/
...ethnic white Russian population inside the Russian Federation for the Ukraine War.
In a whole lot of words, Dunnigan lays out the current military power implications for the Russian Army of something @kamilkazani spoke to in the tweet here:
The biggest reason Saudi Patriot batteries are as effective as they currently are against Iranian-Houthi drones & ballistic missiles is US Contractor Logistical Support.
There were eight years of US, UK & other NATO training teams in Ukraine between 2014 & 2022 teaching mechanized logistics as well as modern anti-Russian tactics.👇 1/
So there were literally hundreds of NATO servicemen who could have been debriefed about Ukrainian Armed Forces effectiveness and what Ukrainians know about Russian logistics.
2/
Given the US DoD computer model predicting the outcome of a Russian invasion of Ukraine -- USING THE MOST UP TO DATE INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATES -- predicted Ukraine would fall in 72-to-96 hours.
Do you think anyone from the US CIA, DIA, US Military intelligence or their NATO
3/
Alright boys and girls, we are going for another wild ride in modern logistics & intelligence🧵
I want you to pay attention to the Russian artillery ammo & it's wood box packaging because I'm going to visually explain why it shows pre-mechanized logistics of the early 1930's 1/