Thread by @partizan_oleg

Thread. Open Source effort from @oryxspioenkop has tallied a total of 467 Russian tanks have been visual confirmed lost since 2/24. So how bad is it? (1/n)

Many, including a certain "evidence-based only" sources would argue that the Russian Federation is operating some 10,000 tanks so 467 is "but a scratch". Which is certainly not true. (2/n)

Their mistake is that the bulk of these "10,000 tanks" are not in a status that can be operated by the Russian troops. There are just not enough units to operate them. (3/n)

We can generally devide the five-digit Russian tank inventory into for categories:
1. Operated in standing army, manned by contracted soldiers;
2. Operated in standing army, manned by conscripts;
These two are the force that RF can utilize without mobilization. (4/n)

3. Storaged in Weapons and Equipment Storage Bases, to become brigades when mobilized;
4. Storaged in Central Base for the Storage of Armored Vehicles, to become replacement pieces when mobilized. (5/n)

Russian have a standing army of some 250,000 personnel. As of late 2021, the standing army (including VDV and Naval Shore-borne forces) operates a total of 2,609 tanks according to their Table of Organization & Equipment (TOE). (6/n)
bmpd.livejournal.com/4393829.html

Russian Federation has thrown ~80% of its available forces into the fray in Ukraine, so we have 0.8*2609=2080 tanks in the theatre. (7/n)

Additionaly, Russian formations maintained a high percentage of conscripts (may vary between units). Therefore, due to the inability to deploy conscript abroad, an RU brigade/regiment would usually deploy ONE/TWO instead of THREE BTGs into the battle. (8/n)

These cut the total deployed RU tanks to 2080*2/3=1400.
So the Russian Ground Forces have visually (always note it is the baseline figure!) lost 467/1400=33.35% tanks deployed in Ukraine in the first 46 days of battle. This is definately not a scratch, but a terrible loss. (9/n)

So what if Russia would compensate the damage from its huge tank reserve? It can somehow work, but not for long.
Firstly, let's forget about Russian tank industry. Industry provides some 200 tanks/yr to the RuAF, while they are losing 300 of their tanks/month.(10/n)

We assume that there will be enough reserve crews to man the replacement tanks (yet there are not). The immediate replacement for the front are the active service tanks manned by conscripts. On paper we have some 750. Not great, not terrible, right? (11/n)

But things will get complicated if you consider that not 100% of tanks in the TO&E is operatable. Usual figure is at 90%. The deployed BTGs of cources have driven the good pieces. So a total of 2100*0.9-1400=472 pieces is what Russian Army can compensate for its BTGs. (12/n)

That indicates the Russian Army will soon (if not already!) start to face a shortage of tanks in the front.
People then will ask:"so, where are the other 7000 tanks? When will them be available"? (13/n)

The answer is in months, if not years.
Firstly, there are a total of 9 "Weapons and Equipment Storage Bases", 7 of which in the Far East, exist. They are to be mobilized into motor rifle brigades with reserve personnel in 3-6 months. (14/n)

Since there is no indications that such a mobilization would take place, their tanks (350-ish) would be deployed to the front if badly needed. This will significantly hinder Ru's defence in its Asian part, and it will take 2-3 months to demothball and move these tanks. (15/n)

The rest of the "10,000 tanks army" lies in the "Central Armored Tank Storage Bases", where vintage tanks are mothballed in huge amounts. These tanks, like this T-62AM from the 1295th CATSB, basically have no chance of survival in modern warfare. (16/n)

There are signs that basically all modern Russian tanks have been put into active service. The newly expanded 90th Guards Tank Division in Brovary were using Cold War-era T-72A/AVs (produced in 1981-84). (17/n)

So the "more modern" Russian tanks must have been either with depleted motor hours, or in such a bad shape that can not be unmothballed before these T-72As. (18/n)

Russian Army have visually lost 18/187=9.6% of its T-90A fleet, 151/1054=14.3% of its T-72B3/B3M fleet, 60/186=32.3% (!!) of its T-80U fleet, 21/72=29.6% of its T-80BVM fleet. Actual figure will be significantly larger with the 60 unknown pieces and the 200-piece backlog, (19/n)

In one word: Russian tanks loss in Ukraine is terrible. It is neither sustainable nor compensatable. There will soon be a shortage of modern tanks among the Russian ranks, and it will definately hinder further Russian (offensive) operations. (20/end)