Thread by @sb_moller

Sorry but this is far from a done deal, so I'll believe it when I see it. Here's why (a short 🧵)

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1513415540462792705

I’m skeptical that this will come to pass, this year or in the near future, despite the changed security environment in Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Instead, I think this is largely about posturing and signaling. Remember, as always, there are multiple audiences.

First, on Finland: geo + political culture matters – @NATO membership would be a historic development, one that Helsinki couldn’t walk back. Joining NATO would be a BIG break from that past. But geography remains a hurdle.

Finland shares a 1300+ km border with Russia. That’s 1300 km NATO allies would be signing up to defend at a time when Allies just committed to adding four new battlegroups to central Europe (Bulgaria, Slovakia, Romania, and Hungary.) That's a lot of manpower.

It's not clear to me that, despite the necessity of maintaining the Open Door mantra rn, NATO allies are ready for that kind of commitment. So, issue #1 (for fans of the McLaughlin Group 📺 like myself) is pol will
and what I suspect is its absence on the part of allies.

Back to geography: Defending that border (and deterring Russia along it) would become NATO's FT job. And that means lots and lots of detailed DEF planning that needs to happen BEFORE Finland joins since NATO has to be ready from Day 1 to defend an ally.

So, issue #2 NATO Def planners (not to mention the HofG/S of 30 countries) need to sign off on this. This process takes time. So, Madrid 2022 Summit simply isnt realistic.

The fastest the entire process from the signing of the Accession Protocol to the actual formal membership took was one year: Republic of Northern Macedonia (Feb 2019 – March 2020)

And remember they were waiting in wings for long time, withe the def plans done and the only hold up the name change (Greece)

The pol and very real defense constraints remain the same for Sweden.

So, if I dont think this is in the 🎴 right now, what's going on? I suspect that both Helsinki and Stockholm are trying to send Moscow a message after Ukraine, especially in light of ⬇️ and other provocative moves
forsvarsmakten.se/en/news/2022/0….

Sorry - lost track of thread since answering individual tweets - but back to the paperwork part. There's a lot of paperwork not just on defense angle but legal issues as well as the contribution of each new member country to NATO’s common budget. Negotiations take time.

And after all these details are hammered out, you still need all 30 states (which reminds me, when's the French run-off election again?) to give their OKs.

Yes, Stockholm and Helsinki are flirting with NATO. But states makes cautious lovers: they wont start down the road of a longterm commitment unless the other 30 partner(s) are equally committed. The latter isnt nec a slam dunk. And logistically it's a gargantuan task...

And it’s not like joining NATO would be all sunshine and lollipops for the Finns, either. Moscow would likely find a way to make its displeasure known, which some Finns may decide simply isnt worth the risk.

And belonging to NATO means Finland would be asked to contribute to alliance operations and missions and that might not be so palatable to some members of the parliament, either.

So, to conclude, since I've got a mountain of emails: I dont expect a formal bid or invitation. Instead, I expect announcement of (still) closer coop with NATO and possible arms purchases. *Maybe* some future talks and/or studies to "study" issue more...#fin