Thread by @shashj

Western official speaking today emphasises ongoing morale issues in the Russian army: "regardless of the reinforcing of their forces in the Donbas it is still unclear how they're going to overcome some of the morale issues....we've seen numbers of troops being unwilling to fight"

Western officials on significance of May 9th date for Russian war aims: "I think it's difficult to see how even the limited objectives—unless there was a radical change in the way that Russia does its operations–—[could be] concluded by that date."

Western official: Russia has "just over 90 battalion tactical groups" (BTGs) now available—not all in Ukraine, some en route. "That 90 figure means that the non-combat-effective number of BTGs has gone up". It was assessed at 29 last week. Now "in the region of" 37 or 38 BTGs.

That's around 30% of the original force (120-125 BTGs) that Russia assembled for the invasion no longer combat effective (this doesn't mean they're destroyed; but takes time to reconstitute and redeploy).

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1513536092913479690?s=20&t=olSldkxi7aE69GN6ziI_tg

Western official: if new Russian forces are "brought in...piecemeal, there's a risk that...although they may have a numerical advantage, they may not generate an operational advantage in manoeuvre terms against Ukrainian forces in the JFO" (Donbas).