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Apr 12 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
More logistics attacks inside Russia by Ukrainian forces? Here is a railway bridge between Belgorod at the Ukraine border near Kharkiv that definitely looks intentionally damaged (explosions pushing upwards). Exactly the targets Ukraine should be prioritising.
Will further hamper a Donbas buildup by Russia.
Here are even more pictures that make it look intentional.
More logistics, this report is actually good news for Ukraine. At worst signs that the Russians have not been able to get rail lines working into Ukraine in south east (which they’ve controlled for a while) and at best a sign that the Ukrainians are attacking rail lines here too.
This column of heavy vehicles has been geolocated to Matveev Kurgan. This is about 10 kilometres inside Russia.
So that means they are using road and not rail still in Russia. That’s good for Ukraine. Road means slower, less efficient buildup with longer fuel lines, etc. the town mentioned is marked with a red marker in this map.
Btw those vehicles have tires, yes, that doesn’t make them light vehicles. They are a combination of large military trucks and fighting vehicles. They would ideally be transferred by rail as close to the fighting as possible.

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Apr 14
You know whose probably most affected by the sinking of the Moskva? I would say China. Another example of how this war is shaking up the strategic calculus and will, hopefully, make countries think twice about starting wars in the future.
The Moskva was the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and was supposedly well protected by anti-missile systems. Yet the Ukrainians, who have had little experience of anti-ship missiles, have taken out this very valuable Russian asset.
In a nutshell any Chinese naval attempt to attack Taiwan, or indeed a US and allies attempt to send lots of warships near the Chinese coast, would open up the possibilities of mass numbers of Moskva’s.
Read 6 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Apr 14
This is a helpful list to understand what the US is sending to Ukraine, and what it indicates about the state of the war and, crucially what we can expect from the Ukrainian armed forces going forwards.
First, US is defintely upgrading Ukrainian capabilities. The MI 17 helicopters are interesting. Multipurpose so can’t say definitely what their use is. My best guess; to allow the Ukrainians to do more SF work behind Russian lines.
Will we be seeing more of this? itv.com/news/2022-04-0…
Read 8 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Apr 13
The reality of redeploying a defeated and exhausted army is now becoming apparent to those who talked about the Russians redeploying their Kyiv forces to the Donbas. It’s now been a weak since Russian forces were almost all out of Kyiv and Chernihiv. forbes.com/sites/joewalsh…
Where are those forces now. Well best intelligence has them on their way from their withdrawal points to around Belgorod, in Russia, for rest and refit. In the US DOD briefing two days ago it was stated that these forces were still on their way. Image
@TheStudyofWar update last night still has these forces in this rest refit mode. Image
Read 19 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Apr 12
Ok, been looking forward to the transcript of the DoD briefing since the first notes this afternoon. Seemed that there was some seriously interesting information about the air war. Here is the whole transcript btw. defense.gov/News/Transcrip…
For those who dont follow regularly, I think the airpower story along with logistics are the most important indicators of the war so far. The fact the Ukraine has denied Russia air superiority over the field of battle has been hugely important.
This press conference addressed more air questions than most Ive seen. What did they say? First what are the Russians doing. Well the Russians are attacking two things it seems. First they are trying to hit Ukrainian logistics targets. Image
Read 11 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Apr 12
Reupping this as there was an interesting update on this supply issue from the pentagon briefing today.
Bad weather is slowing convoys like this (seems to be lots of rain, making deep mud) which means the convoys have to stay on paved roads at all times.
By keeping control of Kharkiv and forcing the Russians onto narrow, secondary roads it seems to be slowing down the build up of Russian forces in the Donbas.
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Apr 12
@JackDetsch is live tweeting the Pentagon briefing. A few very interesting things. First, the switchblade drones have been delivered to Ukraine and are being used in the field already. That’s been fast, we will see if they are effective.
Second. US saying now it has no objection to fixed wing aircraft going to Ukraine. That is potentially an important shift.
Interesting to tie this in with another statement that the pace of Russian air operations has declined markedly from approx 50 a day to 32.
Read 4 tweets

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