Thread by @DimitriASimes

There has been a lot of speculation on here recently how the #UkraineConflict will impact Russian-Chinese relations.

Prominent Russian sinologist Alexey Maslov recently wrote an interesting Telegram post on this issue. English translation is below 🧵

"In China, a principled political decision on economic cooperation with Russia needs to be made at the highest level. If such a decision is made, then - and only then - will there be 'expansion' on all issues. "

"For this to happen, three factors must coincide. First, a complete completion of the military operation. Signing some kind of ceasefire agreement or some kind of agreement that fixes the situation at any point. Until this occurs, nothing will happen."

"Second, China needs to hear Russia’s economic position. So far, Russia hasn't formulated its global demands or economic position. There is no answer to the main question: What does Russia want in the economic sphere?"

"Third, China is obviously waiting for a special offer, one that should be completely different from what we have economically done before. I believe that, at least until the end of the year, there may be difficult and long negotiations between Moscow & Beijing on this issue."

"We need to make such a special offer to a large number of countries in Asia: India, Vietnam. Or maybe even this: We should either make such an offer to a group of five, six, seven, or do make it to no one."

"What could be the content of such a special offer? For example, the complete zeroing-out of any taxes for decades for areas in which joint ventures will be established."

"The participation of the Russian state as a co-investor. We do not just benefit from buying goods in China. It is advantageous for us to create joint Russian-Chinese enterprises on the territory of China, which will produce and supply products to Russia."

"Second, localize Chinese production in Russia. This would be a return to what China began with in the 1990s, when its slogan was the 'market for technology exchange': we have a huge market, come to us, but in return train our engineers and deliver modern production lines."

Original post in Russian can be found here: t.me/maslovasia/808

END of thread.