Sabine Fischer Profile picture
Apr 12 10 tweets 2 min read
Ein paar Gedanken dazu, was nach 1.5 Monaten #RusslandsKrieg jetzt nötig ist.
1. 🇺🇦 braucht schnell mehr Waffen, leicht und schwer, um die 🇷🇺 Offensive im Osten und Südosten abzuwehren und Gelände zurückzugewinnen. Ausbildungszeiten etc. sind kein Argument.
Der Krieg wird dauern – und zu viel Zeit ist schon verloren gegangen. Die Frage ist jetzt: womit können Charkiw, Mariupol, Mikolajiw, Odesa etc. verteidigt werden? Dann sollte gemeinsam mit den Partnern alles daran gesetzt werden, dass das in 🇺🇦 ankommt. 2/9
2. Waffen und Sanktionen/Energieembargo sind nicht alternativ, sondern komplementär – sie haben unterschiedliche Zeithorizonte. Waffen helfen 🇺🇦 jetzt, sich zu verteidigen. Sanktionen reduzieren mittelfristig 🇷🇺Fähigkeit, den Krieg zu führen. Beides ist absolut notwendig. 3/9
3. 🇩🇪 leidet an den energiepolitischen Fehlern der Vergangenheit – daran leidet auch die 🇪🇺und deshalb leidet die 🇺🇦. Das ist eine schmerzliche Tatsache. Der Ausstieg aus der Abhängigkeit von 🇷🇺 ist nur in Stufen möglich. 4/9
Diese sollten identifiziert und klar kommuniziert werden, mit den kürzest-möglichen Fristen. Angesichts der relativen Schwäche, die wir hier haben, ist das das stärkste mögliche Signal. 5/9
4. Ein Wort zur RU Propaganda. 🇩🇪 Politik sollte die Angst hinter sich lassen, dieses oder jenes könnte von der 🇷🇺 Propaganda als Schwäche, Provokation etc. ausgelegt werden. Was wie ausgelegt, welche Manipulationen und Lügen verbreitet werden, entscheidet sich in Moskau. 6/9
🇩🇪Politik hat darauf keinen Einfluss – und sollte sich nicht daran ausrichten. Die Kommunikation mit 🇺🇦 und den westl. Partnern ist ungleich wichtiger. Auf ihr sollte der Fokus liegen, und hier schadet 🇩🇪 Zurückhaltung mehr als sie nutzt. 7/9
5. Die BuReg sollte sich auf den Weg nach Kiew machen. Signale der Unterstützung für 🇺🇦 sind von immenser Wichtigkeit. Nehammers Reise ist kein Modell – die Abstimmung mit den Partnern sollte Priorität haben. Gemeinsame Reisen (Scholz-Macron, Bärbock-Le Drian, 8/9
Steinmeier-Duda) wären ein noch stärkeres Signal. Das Möglichkeitsfenster wird sich allerdings bald schließen.
Das für jetzt. Zu einer umfassenden Strategie gehört viel mehr: Sicherheitsgarantien, Wiederaufbau, EU-Perspektive, Stabilisierung der östlichen Nachbarschaft. 9/Ende
*Das Möglichkeitsfenster für einen Kyjiw-Besuch wird sich nicht schließen, falsche Wortwahl - aber 🇩🇪 riskiert, das positive Momentum zu verpassen, das erzeugt werden könnte.

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More from @SabFis3

Apr 6
There seems to be a notable shift in RU‘s propaganda this week. On 04/04 RIA Novosti published an article by a certain Timofey Sergeytsev which spells out (again) some of the key RU war goals: 🧵 1/9

„denazification needs to be pursued by the victor“ (= no compromise with UA is possible) and „the denazified country cannot be sovereign“ (= independent UA is to be wiped off the map). But Sergeytsev‘s interpretation of „denazification“ differs significantly 2/9
from the previous use of the term, incl in official statements. The gist of his „oeuvre“ is that „denazification“ not only concerns UA pol leadership, but needs to be extended to ALL OF UA, bc the majority of the population supported UA’s „fascist leadership“. 3/9
Read 9 tweets
Mar 24
I was asked to think about possible end states and European security for an expert roundtable. It is still very early to discuss this, but here are my thoughts. I organize them around the question of the existence of an independent UA state, 🧵1/12
because this is what this war is about: RU has attacked to destroy UA as an independent state; UA fights back to preserve their independent statehood.
4 scenarios:

1. RU wins, UA ceases to exist as an independent state. Moscow installs some kind of puppet regime in Kyiv, 2/12
large parts of UA will be permanently occupied by RU and proxy troops; like BY UA will become an integral part of the space controlled by RU, and this space will have a direct boundary with the EU and NATO. 3/12
Read 12 tweets
Mar 11
I had no hope anything would come of the meeting of FMs #Kuleba and #Lavrov yesterday. 2 days ago I wrote that Moscow was beginning to feel the sanctions pressure – and looking for diplomatic wiggle room, without, however, dropping its maximalist positions:
demilitarisation of Ukraine and neutrality, recognition of Crimea annexation + DLNR. At his presser today Lavrov even went back to blustering about the „fascist junta“ in Kyiv. There was a lot of talk afterwards about Lavrov’s remoteness from the centre of decision making... 2/10 the Kremlin. This has been a well-known fact for many years. And yes, he seemed nervous and fiddled during the presser. His position has changed – from a professional and experienced diplomat, feared, loathed, but also respected and even admired by some in the West, 3/10
Read 11 tweets
Mar 8
Moscow is starting to feel the pressure. What makes me say this?
1. RU seems stuck militarily. A big chunk of the RU force is already involved in the war. There are problems with reinforcements, heavy casualties and equipment losses.
#RussiainvadesUkraine 1/8
The goals of the „spec-op“ have not been reached so far. RU seems hesitant to storm Kyiv or Odesa – street fighting in 2 big cities would be a major risk under the circumstances. The idea to occupy the whole or large parts of the country seems even more unrealistic.
2. Unprecedented sanctions imposed with unprecedented pace start to bite. So does international isolation, even if Beijing signals continuing support. Western weapons supplies to UA not to be underestimated in this context either.
Read 8 tweets
Mar 6
My take of the talks so far and the failure of the humanitarian corridor around Mariupol: RU is not serious about the negotiations. Putin and his cronies do not care about humanitarian suffering either. I rest my case: 1/6
2/6 the composition of the RU delegation said it all, from the very beginning. Medinsky and Slutsky are policy clowns sent there to mess with the Ukrainian side. I do believe that the RU military is under pressure to end the operation. They have problems with reserves...
3/6 ...and supplies, and they suffer more losses than they ever expected. But Putin is not ready to consider retreat, compromise. Plus the majority of RU population are either supportive or silent with exhaustion. The protests are limited to the unhappy minority, which...
Read 7 tweets
Mar 2
Some thoughts about why the Kremlin could miscalculate so catastrophically on basically everything: the steadfastness of the UA leadership, the resolve to resist in UA society, UA military capabilities, and their own capability to figth this war.
I see three factors:🧵1/11
1. There is a blatant lack of knowledge and understanding in RU about political and societal developments in neighbouring countries. They used to be part of the Soviet Union until 1991. After independence RU was first too poor to fund proper research on basically anything. 2/11
In the 2000s, attention shifted to other topics, notably China/Asia. I remember the director of a big research institute telling my once that their attempt to create a department about Russia’s immediate neighbourhood was met with indifference if not ridicule. 3/11
Read 11 tweets

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