Thread by @FPL_Architect

GW 33 Free Hit Thread 📝

📌 Is this the week to FH?
📌 DGWers vs SGWers
📌 Can we trust Man Utd?
📌 Arsenal
📌 Leicester attackers
📌 Foundations
📌 Differentials
📌 Goalkeepers
📌 Free Hit drafts

#FPL | @OfficialFPL | #GW33

📊 DGW 33 📊

🔹 7 teams double
🔹 Leeds, Villa and Wolves blank

📌 Is this the week to Free Hit?
 
Whether or not you should play your Free Hit this week is totally team dependent, but I do think this is a good opportunity. 7 teams have a DGW while 3 blank, meaning that this week presents a good chance to jump on DGWers simply for short term

..gain, without having to keep them in your team going forward.
 
If you have 2 FHs left, it’s a no-brainer to play one this week as you can’t FH 2 GWs in a row and GW 36/37 are the only clear FH opportunities left after GW 33. If you only have one FH though, it’s more difficult.

If you have less than 5-6 DGWers this week and are well set up for GW 36-37, it could definitely be worth using your last FH chip this week.

📌 How many DGWers should be in my FH?
 
A big dilemma for Free Hitters this week is how many good single gameweekers to replace with DGWers. Cancelo, Trent, Salah, Son and Kane are all good picks this week but on a FH you’d like to target more DGW players from teams like...

Leicester, Man Utd and Newcastle. Finding the right mix of DGWers and SGWers is difficult but in my opinion, Free Hitters should “risk it” and go without several popular SGWers as the real upside lies in targeting the right DGWers. That’s where the huge hauls are.

I would therefore recommend going for 8-9 DGWers and including Kane, Son and maybe Cancelo as SGWers. Avoiding Liverpool assets might sound controversial but there’s limited upside in the fixture (MUN) and on a FH I would personally go for more “exciting” DGW picks.

Liverpool and Man City also face each other in the FA Cup this weekend meaning that they will have played 90, potentially 120, minutes of high intensity football before their PL games just a few days later.  If you really want to protect your rank, you can always play safe...

and include Salah in your FH, but it also makes sense to go for the picks with the greater upside. 

📌 Can we trust Man Utd assets?
 
No one missed how bad United played in their game against Everton in GW 32, but I would still recommend going for a Man Utd triple up...

on your Free Hit this GW. Even though their DGW includes a difficult fixture in LIV (A), United players are the best captaincy options this week due to the great first fixture, NOR (H). You just have to pick 3 United players for the potential upside and then hope for the best.

They could definitely score a few past Norwich, which would make Bruno, Ronaldo, Sancho etc great picks.

📌 Arsenal
 
Arsenal is one of the DGW teams this week, but despite their double I’m not convinced about including Arsenal players in a Free Hit. For sure, Bukayo Saka (6.8m) averages 0.5 xGI/90 this season and is a good pick, but after the recent losses against Palace...

and Brighton I’m not impressed by Arsenal’s defence and I don’t think they’ve done enough attacking wise to warrant an attacking double up. Going with Saka only is perfectly viable this week.

📌 Leicester attackers
 
Given Leicester’s tight fixture schedule, many expect Brendan Rodgers to give his key players a rest against Newcastle, their first game in GW 33. This would, of course, make Leicester assets less appealing. For someone like James Maddison who has started

...the last 4 PL games, I think there’s a significant risk of a benching vs Newcastle. Harvey Barnes on the other hand, was rested in GW 32 and therefore has a better chance of starting both games in DGW 33, but he can’t be described as a nailed starter either.

Maddison vs Barnes vs Iheanacho 
(Last 6 games, stats per appearance)
 
xG: 0.2 vs 0.3 vs 0.1
xA: 0.1 vs 0.1 vs 0.1
 
Penalty area touches: 1.2 vs 5.0 vs 3.0
Mins per attempt: 54 vs 24 vs 42
 
[@FFScout]

My personal ranking:
🥇 Barnes
🥈 Maddison
🥉 Iheanacho

📌 Free Hit foundations
 
Below are some players that I think should be in every FH this week:
 
⚫️⚪️ Newcastle defender
🔴 Man Utd defender
🔴 Bruno, Ronaldo or both
⚪️ Kane, Son or both
🦊 Barnes, Maddison or both
⚫️⚪️ Wood or Saint-Maximin

📌 Free Hit differentials
 
Remember that just playing your Free Hit is a differential in itself so don’t feel like you need to differentiate from the FH template just because you want to be different. The FH template will be differential enough in itself.

However, if you want some exciting differentials for your Free Hit, here are a few that I think could do well:
 
⚫️⚪️ Targett
🔴 Sancho
💎 De Bruyne
🔴 Adams
⚫️⚪️ Saint-Maximin

📌 Goalkeepers
 
Many are struggling to decide on a GK for their FH team. There’s 3 options that I find worth considering; Schmeichel, Dubravka and De Gea.

Leicester vs Newcastle vs Man Utd
(Last 6 games, stats per 90 mins)
 
xGC: 1.8 vs 1.2 vs 1.4
 
Shots conceded: 14 vs 11 vs 12
Big chances conceded: 1.8 vs 2.1 vs 1.6
 
(@FFScout)

My preferred pick is Kasper Schmeichel (4.8), even though Leicester have the worst xGC out of the three. The reason why I like him as a pick is that it’s basically impossible to find a nailed Leicester defender, whereas Schmeichel is a guaranteed 180 mins in the DGW.

Both Newcastle and Man Utd have appealing defenders such as Schär and Telles, which means that you can cover all 3 teams and maximize xMins by going with Schmeichel as your keeper.

📌 Free Hit drafts

Draft 1 - ”No Salah”

8x DGWers
Kane, Son and Cancelo

Draft 2 - ”Playing safe”

9x DGWers
Salah and Kane

Draft 3 - ”Differential”

9x DGWers
KDB and Cancelo
Ronaldo (C)

Thanks for reading this thread, I hope you found it interesting and useful. Any feedback is much appreciated!

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My usual GW Thread will be posted on Thursday 💙