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Apr 12 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
In Baku Dialogues (published by @ADAUniversity) #DamjanKrnjevic & I worry about a calculation that seems to be that however much suffering Ukraine sustains, Russia will suffer more and the West will suffer minimally. How, exactly, is this good for Ukraine? 1/
We wrote this piece prior to the latest incidents of killings, and more blood makes a settlement less likely, but a prolonged conflict does not support the West's long-term more important geopolitical imperatives vis-a-vis the Indo-Pacific basin. 2/ bakudialogues.ada.edu.az/articles/geopo…
But adding analysis from @Ali_Wyne here ...
And from @WeTheBrandon here ...

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More from @FPRI_Orbis

Editor of FPRI's Orbis Profile picture
Apr 14
We've had a month to watch this unfold further, and it is clear that one of the key intelligence failures on the part of the Kremlin was to vastly overestimate Chinese economic support (from the "Vladimir's Delusions" thread). 1/
For the last year, Kremlin commentators confidently stressed how Russia would pivot to Asia to cope with any economic pressure from the West. 2/
Important scoreboard items so far: Sinopec not moving ahead with its major Amur gas project with Sibur and suspending project to market Novatek's LNG; Huawei stopping its work. Chinese firms not stepping in as expected. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Editor of FPRI's Orbis Profile picture
Apr 9
Appointment of General Dvornikov to head Russian operations in Ukraine signal that Kremlin moving to Syria style campaign. Dvornikov was part of my presentation at the @norwichnews Peace & War symposium last month. Dvornikov is an advocate for ... 1/
the evacuation of the civilian population, use of air and artillery strikes to inflict considerable damage, and offering final evacuation of resistance fighters to designated enclaves as a way to reduce the size of the territory under opposition control. 2/
Use of evacuation corridors with the proviso that those who remain are declared as combatants, allows the Russians to both diminish the size of the population in the enclaves but also to then engage in indiscriminate firing without concern for minimizing damage to civilians. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Editor of FPRI's Orbis Profile picture
Apr 8
Last year, the spring 2021 issue of @FPRI Orbis focused on the challenges facing the newly inaugurated Biden administration. Alongside legacy items, especially the question of rising and resurgent powers, the United States is forced to confront new challenges ... 1/
as the international system exits the post–Cold War era and as technological, climactic, demographic, and political factors alter the geopolitical and geo-economic environment. Not only in our pages, but across Twitter these points have been debated by our authors ... 2/
and responders. In turn, we tried to captured those points into a new standalone article for the current summer 2022 issue. 3/ sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Read 6 tweets
Editor of FPRI's Orbis Profile picture
Apr 7
The spring 2022 issue of @FPRI Orbis is out. (@Ali_Wyne already letting people know of his contribution)! The editor's corner lays out what you can expect--a look at the myriad of national security risks that confront the United States ... 1/
and how the country might formulate more effective national security strategies in response. We open with a conversation with @dzakheim, who discusses the implications of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan for the future. 2/
The themes he identifies—the “triple challenge” of coping with China, Iran, and Russia; the risks of “Eurasian simultaneity” (facing coordinated action across multiple theaters); & the continued threat of terrorism and other transnational challenges—are the heart of the issue. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Editor of FPRI's Orbis Profile picture
Apr 1
Ukraine is the "acute" crisis, but how the U.S. is making this crisis a yardstick for its relations with other states may create complications for a successful pivot to the Indo-Pacific basin. 1/
In particular, the U.S.-India relationship may need some repair, and a number of African, Middle Eastern & Asian states could end up drawing conclusions Washington may not like. 2/
The impression is that the U.S. is asking its partners in the global south & east to make major sacrifices to support U.S. policy in Europe. What they haven't seen is what the U.S. would be prepared to ask its partners in Europe to sacrifice or compromise to defend ... 3/
Read 11 tweets
Editor of FPRI's Orbis Profile picture
Apr 1
In @washingtonpost, @emilyrauhala summarizes some of the takeaways from the EU-China summit: 1/ msn.com/en-us/news/wor…
Again, the European appeal for China to become involved in ending a European conflict: “We called on China to end the war in Ukraine.” (European Council President Charles Michel) 2/
From the Chinese side, she quotes from the Global Times editorial: "China-E.U. relations cannot be kidnapped by the Ukraine crisis, and Europe should no longer be abducted by the U.S. in foreign policy." 3/
Read 4 tweets

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