Senior Defense Official Holds a Background Briefing, April 12 (summary)
"I don't have a whole lot of updates today from yesterday... We're up to more than 1,540 missile launches. [Russian] Air strikes continue to be focused on Mariupol and the Joint Force operation area there to the east, and Donbas."
"The convoy that we've been talking about is still north of Izyum about 60 kilometers or so, and we do assess that it's moving, but not at breakneck speed... It includes some command-and-control elements, some enablers and we think it's also intended for resupply,"
"There is still heavy fighting around Izyum right now, and Russian forces do remain south of Izyum, again, about 20 kilometers or so, which is not a huge change from where it was before."
"we're still trying to monitor that -- these reports, but we cannot confirm the use of chemical agents at this time"
"We would not push back on the idea that they [Russia] are trying to hit Ukrainian -- the Ukrainians' ability to sustain themselves in the fight so that they certainly have shown an interest in trying to hit logistics and sustainment for the Ukrainians"
"But as they begin to focus on the east, as they now start to reinforce their positions there, create a command-andcontrol organization, as well as logistics and sustainment, it follows a certain logic that they would also try to deny the Ukrainians some of those same advantages"
"So we would assess that Russian assessed available combat power -- and again, I want to remind you guys that that's of the combat power that they preassembled before their invasion. We estimate that they're just above 80 percent in terms of what's left of them."
"Yes, the convoy's north of Izyum. I don't know its final destination, but I would remind that, you know, with the spring weather they have to stay on the paved roads. They're staying on highways and avenues. They're not going off-roading here."
"No, and I have not seen -- we haven't seen indications that the Ukrainians have attempted attacks on the convoy yet."
"We would assess that the Ukrainians still have -- they still have the majority of their air defense available to them, but they have been clear that they want to boost their inventories for air defense capabilities."
"They've been clear that they want more aircraft. And again, as you know, we're talking to allies and partners about doing what we can to help them get more long-range air defense systems."
[on the reported chemical attack ] "we know that the Russians have a history of using chemical agents. And they have shown a propensity in the past, and so we're taking it seriously."
[When asked about Russian SEAD efforts] "I don't know if I'd say suppression. I mean, as I said earlier, we believe they're going to try to improve their ability to sustain the fight and try to deny the Ukrainians' ability to sustain the fight. And part of that is air defense."
{on the initial order of Switchblades] "A significant amount of the first 100 we know are in Ukraine. But it's not all 100."
"We're not on the ground with them. And they're not telling us, you know, every round of ammunition that they're firing and at who, and at when. I mean, we may never know exactly to what degree they are using the Switchblades."
[On potential Russian chemical weapons attacks] "Again, not in a position to confirm that that happened at this point. And I'm not enough of a chemical expert to tell you exactly what those agents would be, and how you would mix them...
...I would point you to my college transcripts, where I got a D in organic chemistry and was forced to change my major. So I'm not exactly the right guy to talk about that."
"I would just tell you that we have been very clear both publicly and privately with the Ukrainians what our expectations are for the proper treatment of prisoners of war."
"My understanding is that we don't earmark for particular units. These items are not sitting around very long. Once they get into the transshipment sites they are palletized and put on trucks, those trucks are picked up by Ukrainian armed forces and taken into Ukraine...
...And then it's up to the Ukrainians to determine where they go and how they're allocated inside their country."
"What we try to do is talk to them very frequently about their needs, and not just at the secretary’s level but below that, to get a sense of what they want, and then we try to coordinate the delivery of that stuff not just from us but other nations...
...and get them on trucks as fast as we can."
"Switchblades are a great example. This is a system that the Ukrainians were not familiar with but that we believe, based on talking to them, that it could be valuable. And so we did conduct some brief training with a few of them as we talked about."
"I am not going to get ahead of future drawdown packages and what that might look like. But if we determine, in concert with the Ukrainians, that there's additional systems that they need that we can provide but that might require some training...
...then we're certainly willing to talk to them about that and what that would look like."
"We are flowing things in every single day. And you want to flow things in in a way that the Ukrainians can properly receive it and use it and are ready to receive... We are in constant communication with them about what their needs are and about what's getting in and when."
Q: And then, perhaps related, have you seen evidence that the appointment of General Dvornikov to oversee operations in Ukraine, has that already changed any of the tactics or strategy of the Russian forces there with regard to potential chemical weapons use or for anything else?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: No.
[On Russian airstrikes] "the Russians have concentrated their efforts now in a smaller geographic area... They have now collapsed their efforts now to the east and to the south"
"it could also change... we don't know how this fight's going to unfold. And we can't be perfectly predicted that the Russians won't step up their number of air strikes, you know, if they feel they need to...
...So, again, it's difficult to get inside their head and know exactly what they're doing and what they're going to do next."
"Still assess that in the Black Sea, theyve got a little less than a couple of dozen ships, the biggest number they have are surface combatants. They also have some LSTs as well. We still assess that a large part of their focus, particularly in the Sea of Azov, is replenishment."
"They've got some surface ships in the northern Black Sea, kind of sprinkled throughout it we believe likely intended to support activities on the ground, and then again, in the Sea of Azov, I think five ships right now in the Sea of Azov, a mix of frigates and minesweepers."
"on the chem/bio stuff. I don't think we have provided them {Ukraine} any detection equipment, but I don't know and I don't want to guess."
"Yesterday, two U.S. flights arrived in the region with everything from small-arms ammunition, machine guns, body armor, grenades and other explosives. In the next 24 hours, we expect another flight from the United States to arrive with similar things in it."
"So of the just-slightly-more-than 20 flights that we expected to be required to close out that $800 million, we are at 19, so we're very close to finishing it out... We believe we'll be done by the middle of the month"
"We're also working on the next one, which you know is $100 million for the Javelins, and we expected that that, that's the latest drawdown- we call that ‘PDA 5,’ with the Javelins should be finished by -- also by mid-April, so we're moving on both of them"
"if a nation wants to provide fighter aircraft to Ukraine, then that's up to them to decide and for them to speak to, our objection to the previous proposal was that the country in question expressed a desire to transfer them to our custody for us to deliver to Ukraine."
"We did not object to the idea of the provision of aircraft to Ukraine, and that would be a decision for Slovakia to make. I am not aware of any discussions that we are having with Slovakia with respect to this particular idea. But we certainly would not object to it."
{On backfilling Slovakian AD capability with Patriots} "I know of no discussions about potential backfill for this proposal. In fact, I mean, I don't believe we're actively tracking this idea of Slovakia providing the MiGs."
"I would just tell you that we continue to provide information and intelligence to the Ukrainians that are helping them in their fight against the Russians. But it's their fight against the Russians, and we don't dictate to them what their operations ought to look like."
"We don't expect them to tell us in advance what they're going to do, and we're doing everything we can to help them defend themselves. That includes in the information sphere, but that's as far as I'll go."
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